P6 SYMPOSIUM: Carryover Contest

[Bigsmc]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

good lord, I've been going through these races for two days now. its almost comical the variety of unknowns that are thrown at you. its like any horses hanging around the barn are entered. looks like some came out of retirement for this.

LOL Jim, yes there is a little bit for every angle player in these races.

If I don't get any stronger feelings tonight, I may not play and just root for another carry.

I'll be back on later with some thoughts on the first three races and would love to hear what others are thinking.

[GPK]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

There are too many multi race bets to have every race placed in a non-blind spot.

In other words, in NY you have two Pick-4s, one starting in the second race and one in the 6th, and a Pick-6 starting in the 4th. Well, obviously the second is a perfect place for a maiden race laden with first time starters ( these are pretty much the races we are talking about and this issue is specifically important during Saratoga where there are quite often two or even three of these races in a day ). However, after that it becomes problematic. Yes, if you have another the best place is the 4th race, as that begins the Pick-6. This is lousy for the early Pick-4 but there have to be compromises. The next best place is the 6th race as that is out of the first Pick-4 but begins the final Pick-4. This is lousy for the Pick-6 but once again it becomes a lesser of two evils. However, I prefer the 4th over the 6th if we have two races ( assuming we use the 2nd race for the other one ). The worst spots ( assuming a nine race card like we are discussing ) are the 5th race, as it is blind in both the early Pick-4 and Pick-6, and the 9th race as it is blind in both the Pick-6 and final Pick-4. Plus, the 9th race is a high handle race, and races laden with firsters generally attract lower handles. The two remaining spots are the 7th and 8th race, and the 8th is the feature so it won't come up and the 7th is less bad than the 5th because there is a 6-7 double so one could use that pool to see what firsters are taking action.

OK?

gotcha....makes tons of sense now. thanks.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Riot

Maybe some of these carryovers shouldn't be played, no matter how tempting ... Isn't the point to attack it when you do have a strong opinion in 4-5 races?

The reason one plays carryovers is that they eliminate takeout. That being said, some are simply too tough for whatever bankroll you have.

Having a strong opinion in 4 or 5 races seems pretty remote to me.

[Late Fires]

Originally Posted by Rootdog1

I go first, What is the sequence - main ticket A/B and then A/C's and then ..............

To Root's point, is there one particular structure you would recommend, such as:

AB/AB/AB/AB/AB/AB
ABC/A/A/A/A/A
A/ABC/A/A/A/A
A/A/ABC/A/A/A
A/A/A/ABC/A/A
A/A/A/A/ABC/A
A/A/A/A/A/ABC

Or does your structure vary quite a bit depending on the sequence and cirumstances?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Late Fires

To Root's point, is there one particular structure you would recommend, such as:

AB/AB/AB/AB/AB/AB
ABC/A/A/A/A/A
A/ABC/A/A/A/A
A/A/ABC/A/A/A
A/A/A/ABC/A/A
A/A/A/A/ABC/A
A/A/A/A/A/ABC

Or does your structure vary quite a bit depending on the sequence and cirumstances?

Personally I don't recomend a structure that has any combination more than once.

I play mostly AB/AB/AB/AB/AB/AB
C/AB/AB/AB/AB/AB
AB/C/AB/AB/AB/AB
AB/AB/C/AB/AB/AB
AB/AB/AB/C/AB/AB
AB/AB/AB/AB/C/AB
AB/AB/AB/AB/AB/C

[blackthroatedwind]

It's also worth mentioning that every race may not have Bs or Cs.

[Riot]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The reason one plays carryovers is that they eliminate takeout. That being said, some are simply too tough for whatever bankroll you have. Having a strong opinion in 4 or 5 races seems pretty remote to me.

Excellent, thank you.

[Late Fires]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Personally I don't recomend a structure that has any combination more than once.

I play mostly AB/AB/AB/AB/AB/AB
C/AB/AB/AB/AB/AB
AB/C/AB/AB/AB/AB
AB/AB/C/AB/AB/AB
AB/AB/AB/C/AB/AB
AB/AB/AB/AB/C/AB
AB/AB/AB/AB/AB/C

Makes sense. Thanks, Andy.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Personally I don't recomend a structure that has any combination more than once.

I play mostly AB/AB/AB/AB/AB/AB
C/AB/AB/AB/AB/AB
AB/C/AB/AB/AB/AB
AB/AB/C/AB/AB/AB
AB/AB/AB/C/AB/AB
AB/AB/AB/AB/C/AB
AB/AB/AB/AB/AB/C

Thanks for this and your post below.

I found that in one of the races at Belmont (you'll have to excuse me for not having particulars as I am at work) I really liked one horse and felt there were 3 that were very evenly matched below him, but with a shot. Would you make the one horse an "A" and the other 3 a "C" and play the rest of your ticket like your example above or is it not a good formula to have so many as a C and one as an A and you'd use those 3 as B's instead? (I think I've confused myself on this post)

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Thanks for this and your post below.

I found that in one of the races at Belmont (you'll have to excuse me for not having particulars as I am at work) I really liked one horse and felt there were 3 that were very evenly matched below him, but with a shot. Would you make the one horse an "A" and the other 3 a "C" and play the rest of your ticket like your example above or is it not a good formula to have so many as a C and one as an A and you'd use those 3 as B's instead? (I think I've confused myself on this post)

It's really a lot more complicated that that. While you are making race by race decisions you are also making decisions based on your opinions in the other races. In a basic sense, if you really can't seperate the three " other " horses then they should all be either Bs or Cs. Now, as making them all Bs would quadruple the cost of your play, this is unlikely to be an option. So, they would most likely be Cs. And since you claim to have a strong opinion on one horse perhaps that horse is your best single. However, it's also a function of what you are investing, as if you had the As and Bs down to two 2s and 3 3s then using all three as Bs makes your main ticket $864 and if this fits into your bankroll it may be how you want to play. However, perhaps you would be happier adding one horse to three of the other races, and using only the A in the leg we are discussing. It's a question of relative importance as it relates to bankroll.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

It's really a lot more complicated that that. While you are making race by race decisions you are also making decisions based on your opinions in the other races. In a basic sense, if you really can't seperate the three " other " horses then they should all be either Bs or Cs. Now, as making them all Bs would quadruple the cost of your play, this is unlikely to be an option. So, they would most likely be Cs. And since you claim to have a strong opinion on one horse perhaps that horse is your best single. However, it's also a function of what you are investing, as if you had the As and Bs down to two 2s and 3 3s then using all three as Bs makes your main ticket $864 and if this fits into your bankroll it may be how you want to play. However, perhaps you would be happier adding one horse to three of the other races, and using only the A in the leg we are discussing. It's a question of relative importance as it relates to bankroll.

Thanks, this really is a very enjoyable contest you and Steve are putting together. While I don't have the sort of bankroll to play Pick 6's, it really is forcing me to pay more attention to betting structure and will hopefully carry over to the sort of bets I am making.

[pmacdaddy]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Personally I don't recomend a structure that has any combination more than once.

I play mostly AB/AB/AB/AB/AB/AB
C/AB/AB/AB/AB/AB
AB/C/AB/AB/AB/AB
AB/AB/C/AB/AB/AB
AB/AB/AB/C/AB/AB
AB/AB/AB/AB/C/AB
AB/AB/AB/AB/AB/C

I really like that set up. Similar to what I tried to put together, although I upgraded a couple of C+'s to get them on Main Ticket.

Do you follow similar approach in pick4 sequences? Seems like a good way to invlove a real bobm or two without breaking the bank.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by pmacdaddy

I really like that set up. Similar to what I tried to put together, although I upgraded a couple of C+'s to get them on Main Ticket.

Do you follow similar approach in pick4 sequences? Seems like a good way to invlove a real bobm or two without breaking the bank.

I don't follow it too much with Pick-4s, though I probably should, and the way I've been going lately I probably shouldn't be giving any advice whatsoever.

This discussion has, however, disrupted my heartbreak over seeing on the E Channel crawl that Keri Russell had a child. Yet another fantasy down the drain.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Personally I don't recomend a structure that has any combination more than once.

I play mostly AB/AB/AB/AB/AB/AB
C/AB/AB/AB/AB/AB
AB/C/AB/AB/AB/AB
AB/AB/C/AB/AB/AB
AB/AB/AB/C/AB/AB
AB/AB/AB/AB/C/AB
AB/AB/AB/AB/AB/C

So you don't do anything different with your A horses from your B horses?

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

This discussion has, however, disrupted my heartbreak over seeing on the E Channel crawl that Keri Russell had a child. Yet another fantasy down the drain.

You were hoping to be her first born?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

So you don't do anything different with your A horses from your B horses?

I phucked it up....you're right.

It is C/A/A/A/A/A
A/C/A/A/A/A
A/A/C/A/A/A
A/A/A/C/A/A
A/A/A/A/C/A
A/A/A/A/A/C

for the back-ups and AB/AB/AB/AB/AB/AB for the main ticket.

[Rootdog1]

are the ML and early scratches up for Hollywood. I am at work and cant get to it (which is Redonkulous). Anyway, really interested in the ML of Alfred Kent in the 4th. Hoping to get at least 10-1.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by Rootdog1

are the ML and early scratches up for Hollywood. I am at work and cant get to it (which is Redonkulous). Anyway, really interested in the ML of Alfred Kent in the 4th. Hoping to get at least 10-1.

ML 15-1 on youbet.com.

From Hollywood site:

Spring/Summer Meet – Day #43
Wednesday, June 20, 2007
First Post: 1:20 PM (PDT)

Cushion Track: Fast
Turf: Firm – Rail at 0 feet

$183,032 Pick Six Carryover
Races 3-8

$150,000 Guaranteed Pick Four
Presented by TVG
Races 5-8

PROGRAM CHANGES

Race 1:
No Program Changes

Race 2:
No Program Changes

Race 3:
No Program Changes

Race 4:
Scratch - #1a Warren’s Secret
Scratch - #11 Abandoneer
Scratch - #12 Big Ed
Scratch - #14 Peace Accord

Race 5:
Scratch - #1 Son Montuno
Scratch - #10 Conclave
Scratch - #15 River Rebel

Race 6:
No Program Changes

Race 7:
No Program Changes

Race 8:
No Program Changes

[Rootdog1]

15-1 is fantastic....although I am thinking 8-1 at post is more likely. Big scratches, Abandoneer looked live.

Thanks alot STS.

[sumitas]

It seems the upper limit on a realistic ticket would be $128, and preferably a lot less if you can single a couple of races. $128 would be AB/AB/AB/AB/AB/AB