Derby Trail Next Start-Likely/Possible - Page 2

blackthroatedwind · #21 03-29-2011, 11:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

I'll disagree with you completely on this. IMO he was slow as a 2 year old, but his return race was very good while wide the entire race and they are using the Blue Grass as a final tightner, ala Street Sense and he will run a big race in the Derby. 6pt top (TG) in his return race signals a very healthy horse (maybe almost too healthy) and if he pairs that in the Blue Grass he will be a great bet in the Derby.

All that and because I keyed him up and down in Future pool exactas.

You also liked Kathmanblu.

I hate to tell you, but TG figs don't tell the whole story, and they omit his candy trip, as far as dynamics are concerned, in the Risen Star. Sometimes wide is not only not so bad, sometimes it's actually good, except for people that blindly follow sheet numbers. But, then again, you can take solace in knowing there's always " bounce " as a further excuse.

I prefer slow....but maybe that's only because I don't want to lose money on him. However, if there is an early pool on the Secretariat I might be inclined to take a little 25:1.

Then again, he was a Trips&Traps horse after his debut.

Indian Charlie · #22 03-29-2011, 11:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Giacomo...should I continue. Just shut the hell up

Again. That might have been the worst Derby field in 20 years, except for Afleet Alex.

You do remember what happened to Afleet Alex, right?

Or maybe you think Mo isn't as good as AA, I don't know.

Either way, you are both wrong and a moron.

randallscott35 · #23 03-29-2011, 12:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Again. That might have been the worst Derby field in 20 years, except for Afleet Alex.

You do remember what happened to Afleet Alex, right?

Or maybe you think Mo isn't as good as AA, I don't know.

Either way, you are both wrong and a moron.

Really worst field ever. Maybe you missed Bellamy Road's Wood that year. Was that fast enough for you?...You swtich arguments between fields and slow. And your wild Indian Charlie Bromance is taking you nowhere in life.

Alan07 · #24 03-29-2011, 01:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Why is the Blue Grass Stakes still a Grade 1?

Keeneland.

Scav · #25 03-29-2011, 02:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You also liked Kathmanblu.

I hate to tell you, but TG figs don't tell the whole story, and they omit his candy trip, as far as dynamics are concerned, in the Risen Star. Sometimes wide is not only not so bad, sometimes it's actually good, except for people that blindly follow sheet numbers. But, then again, you can take solace in knowing there's always " bounce " as a further excuse.

I prefer slow....but maybe that's only because I don't want to lose money on him. However, if there is an early pool on the Secretariat I might be inclined to take a little 25:1.

Then again, he was a Trips&Traps horse after his debut.

I will admit that a couple years ago I fell into just using TG numbers, and it was a valuable learning lesson for me personally. I'll watch the Risen Star again because I have only watched it twice, but wide, on the dirt, is not where you want to be at FG. On the turf, sure, but not on the dirt, imo.

The Indomitable DrugS · #26 03-29-2011, 02:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

but wide, on the dirt, is not where you want to be at FG.

In general - you're right.

However - the pace was such a crawl that race - and outside pressing/stalking trips are always ideal in slow early- fast late races. Even at FG.

RolloTomasi · #27 03-29-2011, 03:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justindew

By the way, this "slow" horse improved his top Beyer by 13 points in his sophomore debut, and has a graded two-turn win over the CD surface.

If he has all that going for him, then why the hell is he a "complete wild card"?

Le Prince in the 1990 Travers. That would have been a complete wild card.

justindew · #28 03-29-2011, 03:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

If he has all that going for him, then why the hell is he a "complete wild card"?

Le Prince in the 1990 Travers. That would have been a complete wild card.

Jesustapdancingchrist.

To me, as I explained earlier, a "wild card" is a horse whose talent level isn't was well established as many of his opponents. Santiva was not fast enough to compete with the likes of Uncle Mo, The Factor, etc. as a juvenile. In his only race this year, he ran well and earned a much higher fig than anything he had produced last year. He will have one more race before the Derby, and that race will be over synthetic- meaning it won't tell me all I would like to know about his form or talent level. Thus, at least as far as I am concerned, there will be a big question mark next to his name.

So I called him a wild card.

RolloTomasi · #29 03-29-2011, 03:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justindew

So I called him a wild card.

I get your reasoning now.

The Kentucky Derby will be Uncle Mo versus 19 complete wild cards.

justindew · #30 03-29-2011, 05:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

I get your reasoning now.

The Kentucky Derby will be Uncle Mo versus 19 complete wild cards.

Now you're being completely ridiculous as opposed to just ridiculous.

miraja2 · #31 03-29-2011, 05:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

If he has all that going for him, then why the hell is he a "complete wild card"?

Is it really that hard to figure out? The guy thinks the horse might be moving in the right direction, but if the horse's next start is on synthetic he's saying he won't learn what he wants to learn about the horse's dirt form/ability when it comes to the Derby.
Sounds reasonable to me.
Just because justindew is the one who made the point doesn't automatically make it completely ridiculous.

asudevil · #32 03-29-2011, 05:57 PM

BLUE GRASS

Crimson China
Santiva
Willcox Inn
Monzon
Joe's Blazing Aaron

Queen'splatekitten (Possible)
Data Link (Possible)
King Congie (Possible)

Swift Warrior to the Blue Grass

blackthroatedwind · #33 03-29-2011, 06:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2

Is it really that hard to figure out? The guy thinks the horse might be moving in the right direction, but if the horse's next start is on synthetic he's saying he won't learn what he wants to learn about the horse's dirt form/ability when it comes to the Derby.
Sounds reasonable to me.
Just because justindew is the one who made the point doesn't automatically make it completely ridiculous.

Justin Dew now has a spokesman?

justindew · #34 03-29-2011, 06:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2

Is it really that hard to figure out? The guy thinks the horse might be moving in the right direction, but if the horse's next start is on synthetic he's saying he won't learn what he wants to learn about the horse's dirt form/ability when it comes to the Derby.
Sounds reasonable to me.
Just because justindew is the one who made the point doesn't automatically make it completely ridiculous.

Thanks, I think.

justindew · #35 03-29-2011, 06:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Justin Dew now has a spokesman?

For the record, I intend to really step up my posting game in the coming weeks. No more blatant (though apparently not obvious to all) attempts to rile people up.

blackthroatedwind · #36 03-29-2011, 06:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justindew

For the record, I intend to really step up my posting game in the coming weeks. No more blatant (though apparently not obvious to all) attempts to rile people up.

Raising your game won't be hard. Lowering it would be impossible.

I consider you a flatliner.

RolloTomasi · #37 03-29-2011, 06:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2

Is it really that hard to figure out? The guy thinks the horse might be moving in the right direction, but if the horse's next start is on synthetic he's saying he won't learn what he wants to learn about the horse's dirt form/ability when it comes to the Derby.
Sounds reasonable to me.
Just because justindew is the one who made the point doesn't automatically make it completely ridiculous.

Spare me. The gripe is clearly with the wording "complete wild card". The horse is hardly that. Santiva has enough of a relevant race record to go on if he were to make the Kentucky Derby field.

Canonero III, he ain't.

justindew · #38 03-29-2011, 07:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I consider you a flatliner.

I know of no one on DT who would disagree with you there. But I've got some posts planned for the coming weeks that will really knock your socks off.

You also haven't accepted my Facebook friend request yet.

blackthroatedwind · #39 03-29-2011, 07:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justindew

You also haven't accepted my Facebook friend request yet.

I wouldn't want you to feel like something you're not......special.

If it makes you feel better, I never friended RockHardTen either.

VOL JACK · #40 03-29-2011, 08:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I wouldn't want you to feel like something you're not......special.

If it makes you feel better, I never friended RockHardTen either.

Or Vol Jack..

But that's OK...I'll just continue to troll his tweets.