3yo's: Keeneland opener features 10 going 7f..

[NTamm1215]

In an effort to keep the Gulfstream 3YO races in a place where everyone can find them, I'm going to post every 3YO race for a given card in this thread and then we can discuss them. No maiden claiming races to start but I'll post anything for winners and all MSW races. If anyone sees a maiden claiming race worth including then have at it.

[NTamm1215]

Day 1, Wednesday, January 5, 2011

Race 6 - 3:25 PM Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Bet 3 (Races 6-7-8) Pick 4 (Races 6-7-8-9)
MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT

Purse $48,500. (Includes $10,000 – FOA - Florida Owners Awards). For Maidens, Fillies Three Years Old. Weight, 122 Lbs. Six Furlongs.

1 1 Jill's Dancer (FL) 3/F L L Panici 122 B R Rose 12/1
2 2 La Rumba (KY) 3/F L E Trujillo 122 M R Matz 7/2
3 3 Rocket Shoes (KY) 3/F L1 J R Leparoux 122 G R Arnold, II 8/1
4 4 Gazillion Kisses (MD) 3/F L1 J Rosario 122 W A Ward 6/1
5 5 Eccentric Life (KY) 3/F L1 E S Prado 122 P L Biancone 6/1
6 6 Four Eleven (ON) 3/F L1 J Lezcano 122 T F Proctor 6/1
7 7 Sky Goddess (KY) 3/F A Smith 122 C Paul 15/1
8 8 Media Starlett (FL) 3/F L1 M R Cruz 122 K O'Connell 10/1
9 9 Miss Smarty Pants (FL) 3/F L1 J R Velazquez 122 S Benzel 4/1
10 10 Sweetly Valid (FL) 3/F L1* E Coa 122 R B Spatz 20/1
11 11 Becausei'mworthit (FL) 3/F J C Leyva 122 M R Thomas 15/1



Race 7 - 3:52 PM Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Bet 3 (Races 7-8-9) ALLOWANCE

Purse $51,500. (Includes $11,000 – FOA - Florida Owners Awards). For Fillies Three Years Old One Mile. (Turf) (Rail at 36 Feet)

1 12 Holiday for Kitten (KY) 3/F L* J Rosario 120 W A Ward 3/1
2 1 Melody Dawn (KY) 3/F L1* J Rose 120 H G Motion 6/1
3 2 Canaima (KY) 3/F L L Garcia 1155 R Garcia 20/1
4 3 Litigating (FL) 3/F L K J Desormeaux 120 W I Mott 4/1
5 4 Silent Joy (KY) 3/F L J Lezcano 120 D L Romans 8/1
6 5 War Prospector (KY) 3/F L R Maragh 120 J C Vazquez 20/1
7 6 Silvislip (KY) 3/F L E S Prado 120 J C Kimmel 20/1
8 7 Victoryat Last (NY) 3/F L E Coa 120 G Weaver 8/1
9 8 Lady's Lunar Luck (NY) 3/F L A O Solis 122 T M Bush 6/1
10 9 Dilly's Dancer (KY) 3/F L P Lopez 120 S Klesaris 12/1
11 10 Pure Value (KY) 3/F L J L Castanon 122 P B Byrne 20/1
12 11 Ginny G (FL) 3/F L E Trujillo 122 W P White 10/1
Also Eligibles:
1A 15 Nina Fever (KY) 3/F L* J Sanchez 120 W A Ward 3/1
13 13 Victoria's Wildcat (KY) (MTO) 3/F L K J Desormeaux 120 R B Hess, Jr. 5/1
14 14 Cedar Grove (KY) 3/F L J Castellano 120 C C Brown 8/1



Race 8 - 4:23 PM Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta
STAKES Old Hat S. (Grade III)

Purse $100,000. For Fillies, Three Years Old. . Six Furlongs.

1 1 Mis Vizcaya (KY) 3/F L* R Maragh 116 J C Vazquez 15/1
2 2 It's Me Mom (FL) 3/F L W Martinez 120 L M Scace 4/1
3 3 Final Mesa (NY) 3/F L* J Rosario 120 W A Ward 7/2
4 4 Pomeroys Pistol (FL) 3/F L P Lopez 116 A Tarrant 10/1
5 5 Quantum Miss (PA) 3/F L J Rose 120 A W Dutrow 2/1
6 6 Roxy Gap (ON) 3/F L J R Leparoux 120 M E Casse 9/5

[randallscott35]

Good idea keeping the 3YO in one thread.

[Alan07]

THURSDAY 1/6 -Race 3 - 1:52 PM - MSW

Purse $48,500. (Includes $10,000 – FOA - Florida Owners Awards). For Maidens, Three Years Old. Weight, 122 Lbs. Six Furlongs.

2 Sasueno (KY) 3/C L1 E Coa 122 M Nihei
3 Ballyclough (KY) 3/C L* K J Desormeaux 122 K G McPeek
4 Walkamileinmyshoes (KY) 3/C L J L Alvarez 1175 B Parboo
1 R King of the Road (FL) 3/C L J R Velazquez 122 T A Pletcher
5 Noble Doss (KY) 3/C L* E Trujillo 122 N P Zito
1A Travelin Man (KY) 3/C L J R Velazquez 122 T A Pletcher
6 Ninja Blade (KY) 3/C L* J R Leparoux 122 E Kenneally
7 Soaring Silver (KY) 3/C L R Maragh 122 D L Romans

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by monipenny

Not trying to change the topic, but why is J. Rosario riding at Gulfstream? Did he switch his tack to Fla? Not a bad idea if searching for a Derby mount.
Interesting maiden race in the 6th. Any thoughts? I don't have the pps yet, but info. will be forthcoming. Nice idea of yours to commit to this thread for three yr olds. I'll follow and comment as well.

Santa Anita is dark on Wednesday, looks like he is in just for the day. He is listed on horses for the 6th back in California.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

Santa Anita is dark on Wednesday, looks like he is in just for the day. He is listed on horses for the 6th back in California.

Was it really necessary to answer that question? Anyone that looks at the feature knows he's only there for the day. I think if he left California to ride at Gulfstream we would have already heard.

Moneypenny is one suit short of a full closet.

[Kasept]

FRIDAY 1/7 - 8th Race ALLOWANCE

1 Mile Dirt. Purse $51,500. FOR THREE YEAR OLDS WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES.

1 Black N Beauty 3 C L 120 Desormeaux Kent J. Romans Dale L.
2 Madness N' Mayhem 3 C L 122 Dominguez Eddie Tortora Emanuel
3 Wildcat Formation 3 C L 115 Alvarez Jose L. Parboo Bisnath
4 Printing Press 3 C L 120 Trujillo Elvis Pompay Teresa M.
5 Fightingforfreedom 3 C L 120 Leyva Juan C. Benson Harry
6 Voce Del Leone 3 C L 120 Coa Eibar Campitelli Francis P.
7 Dr. Tom G 3 C L 120 Lezcano Jose Zito Nicholas P.
8 Hammock Beach 3 C L 120 Velazquez John R. Pletcher Todd A.
9 Shadow Warrior 3 C L 122 Leparoux Julien R. Arnold, II George R.
10 El Grayling 3 C L 120 Baze Michael C. Maker Michael J.

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Was it really necessary to answer that question? Anyone that looks at the feature knows he's only there for the day. I think if he left California to ride at Gulfstream we would have already heard.

Moneypenny is one suit short of a full closet.

Sorry Andy, I haven't gotten the updated list on who has full closets...........

[Alan07]

He was at Gulfstream yesterday.

[NTamm1215]

Steve and Andy talked about these three races today in the 3rd hour.

[NTamm1215]

The 6th definitely has the look of a race where you want to shop around a bit.

The 2 ran well for a Matz firster and that's not surprising considering she's by Speightstown, who's almost a 20% debut sire. The filly she beat had a perfect trip, was 0-7 coming in and came back to win a weak N1X while improving her Beyer 5 pts. Matz is 0 for his last 9 with the favorite in Gulfstream dirt races for 3YOs.

Seth Benzel is 0-45 in his career with firsters in MSW races on the dirt. His lone FTS winners (he's 3-80 overall) came in a maiden claimer this summer at Saratoga, a turf sprint last summer at Saratoga, and in a turf route at Aqu in 2008. The huge gap in her works is disconcerting. Devotion Unbridled, the dam, was a nice horse and her first foal to race won on dirt. Her 2nd foal is Unbridled Humor, who broke her maiden in September at Saratoga at first asking, then won a N1X at Kee and an overnight stake at Aqu, all on turf. This horse has the look of a router on the grass.

One horse that caught my eye a bit was Media Starlett. Mass Media has had 4 debut winners from 20 to race and the dam's first foal is a 10x winner (9 of them in sprints). What stuck out to me was that Kathleen O'Connell has started 19 firsters at GP in the last five years and 51 at Tampa. It's certainly not a huge ship but she could have easily started this filly at Tampa. The fact that she's working the way she is and is running for 51k instead of 21k or so is worth noting.

The 2nd time starter on the outside, Sweetly Valid, had a tough trip first time out but has come back to work well. Her trainer does better with 2nd timers and her dam was a crack sprinter who won over 400k.

I really like Litigating in the turf race. She was a nice winner at Kee then had a bit of trouble in the stake at Calder where she was totally pace compromised. Melody Dawn is interesting because Graham Motion was 3-10 last year with horses shipping in from overseas, that includes Aruna, who went 3-3 between September and November.

I feel like Roxy Gap is a bet against in the feature but have few alternatives. She has been laid up for quite some time (I know she's in good hands) and Casse has a very poor record with horses coming off 100-200 day layoffs in sprint races, that's of course as applicable as you want to make it. His numbers are just 10% with a $0.67 ROI. Her dam was winless on turf and her lone sibling to race ran three horrible races for Tom Albertrani on turf and dirt before going to Woodbine to break his maiden in a claimer on Polytrack. The horses Quantum Miss have faced are absolutely putrid. She's done what's been asked of her but they are tragically bad.

I could see Pomeroys Pistol running a bit better after having a bit of a tough trip in a stake in October. It may be useless, but in the first two weeks of each of the last three meets Amy Tarrant has brought back a horse off a 60+ day layoff to win and her ROI with horses off 61-180 day layoffs at GP is $4.17. You could do worse than give this horse a look.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

The 6th definitely has the look of a race where you want to shop around a bit.

The 2 ran well for a Matz firster and that's not surprising considering she's by Speightstown, who's almost a 20% debut sire. The filly she beat had a perfect trip, was 0-7 coming in and came back to win a weak N1X while improving her Beyer 5 pts. Matz is 0 for his last 9 with the favorite in Gulfstream dirt races for 3YOs.

Seth Benzel is 0-45 in his career with firsters in MSW races on the dirt. His lone FTS winners (he's 3-80 overall) came in a maiden claimer this summer at Saratoga, a turf sprint last summer at Saratoga, and in a turf route at Aqu in 2008. The huge gap in her works is disconcerting. Devotion Unbridled, the dam, was a nice horse and her first foal to race won on dirt. Her 2nd foal is Unbridled Humor, who broke her maiden in September at Saratoga at first asking, then won a N1X at Kee and an overnight stake at Aqu, all on turf. This horse has the look of a router on the grass.

One horse that caught my eye a bit was Media Starlett. Mass Media has had 4 debut winners from 20 to race and the dam's first foal is a 10x winner (9 of them in sprints). What stuck out to me was that Kathleen O'Connell has started 19 firsters at GP in the last five years and 51 at Tampa. It's certainly not a huge ship but she could have easily started this filly at Tampa. The fact that she's working the way she is and is running for 51k instead of 21k or so is worth noting.

The 2nd time starter on the outside, Sweetly Valid, had a tough trip first time out but has come back to work well. Her trainer does better with 2nd timers and her dam was a crack sprinter who won over 400k.

I really like Litigating in the turf race. She was a nice winner at Kee then had a bit of trouble in the stake at Calder where she was totally pace compromised. Melody Dawn is interesting because Graham Motion was 3-10 last year with horses shipping in from overseas, that includes Aruna, who went 3-3 between September and November.

I feel like Roxy Gap is a bet against in the feature but have few alternatives. She has been laid up for quite some time (I know she's in good hands) and Casse has a very poor record with horses coming off 100-200 day layoffs in sprint races, that's of course as applicable as you want to make it. His numbers are just 10% with a $0.67 ROI. Her dam was winless on turf and her lone sibling to race ran three horrible races for Tom Albertrani on turf and dirt before going to Woodbine to break his maiden in a claimer on Polytrack. The horses Quantum Miss have faced are absolutely putrid. She's done what's been asked of her but they are tragically bad.

I could see Pomeroys Pistol running a bit better after having a bit of a tough trip in a stake in October. It may be useless, but in the first two weeks of each of the last three meets Amy Tarrant has brought back a horse off a 60+ day layoff to win and her ROI with horses off 61-180 day layoffs at GP is $4.17. You could do worse than give this horse a look.

Next time, please do a little bit more research before providing your opinion. Thanks.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by asudevil

Question:
Is Gulfstream using the same oddsmaker for the morning lines? Hasn't that been controversial the last few seasons?

Controversial might be going slightly overboard.

[asudevil]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Controversial might be going slightly overboard.

Questionable judgement?

[Sightseek]

This is a really great thread - but why just Gulfstream?

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

This is a really great thread - but why just Gulfstream?

I felt like GP had the highest concentration of 3YOs that will make noise throughout the rest of the year. I'd be more than happy to start one for the west coast and fold in FG and OP to this one. I just won't be following the west coast 3YOs as closely, save the bigger races.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I felt like GP had the highest concentration of 3YOs that will make noise throughout the rest of the year. I'd be more than happy to start one for the west coast and fold in FG and OP to this one. I just won't be following the west coast 3YOs as closely, save the bigger races.

Got ya!

[Scav]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

The horses Quantum Miss have faced are absolutely putrid. She's done what's been asked of her but they are tragically bad.

Welsh's best bet tomorrow, LOL......Not a fan at all.

FWIW, I like Silent Joy alot with the trainer change and not a fan of Litigating at all. IMO, she is gonna be way overbet because of connections and last trip and that was against restricted company.

I am on the fence with Scace's horse in the feature. Running in this race makes zero sense off that last effort unless that last effort was a prep. Martinez did hit her down the lane in that race, but really wasn't trying 'that' hard. She probably goes off at ML or greater and Scace's numbers at GP are pretty good also, with a large ROI

[VOL JACK]

I think the R. Arnold is live in here.
Rocket Shoes.

[gaut10]

nice debut from pletcher trained travelin man in 3rd at GP today (6 jan).