5/2 (CD): Kentucky Derby (G1)

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Unlike many people, I don't have a real strong opinion one way or the other on Pioneerof the Nile. I wouldn't be shocked if he was in the exacta, and I wouldn't be shocked if he didn't finish in the top half. How can anyone really know one way or the other how he'll handle a new surface under race conditions?
His final odds are difficult to predict, and he might end up being overbet, but for me his pedigree and works over the track lead me to believe that he might actually like the dirt. If he does, he is one of the very few horses in the race that I think might have a shot at beating I Want Revenge....who I see as a very solid favorite.

there is 1 barn in ky that has seen all the works this week and the most impressive horse by far in their opinion is POTN

[PatCummings]

There aren't many horses trained by Bob Baffert that don't look very good in the morning.

[kgar311]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Are you talking about I Want Revenge or Pioneerof the Nile?
If Pioneerof the Nile....you could be right.
If I Want Revenge....I think you're insane.

I was talking about POTN

[nomad]

Only a bad trip/traffic problems would prevent I Want Revenge from winning. Hold me Back for the place spot
I would certainly worry about WestSide Bernie, peaking at the right time.

[nomad]

And my boyfriend says ADVICE

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by nomad

And my boyfriend says ADVICE

Is your boyfriend, does he happen to be a Point Given or a Giant's Causeway fan?

[CSC]

Originally Posted by PatCummings

Two Step Salsa was on the lead, but just off the rail in the two path.

Essentially that is what I saw, Dettori intentionally kept him off the rail on the backside, there was a horse that was inside of him on the backside, when he took the lead he naturally drifted closer to the rail but notice Dettori didn't nail him to the rail. The 1st race of the day a horse won coming down towards the inside middle of the track and in the sprint the horse that won was also in the same area though as pointed out earlier it was on a straight course. The track was obviously favouring speed that night but in my opinion the term 'golden rail' is misleading. That term tells me there was an unfair advantage to only one part of the track which I didn't see being the case.

[nomad]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Is your boyfriend, does he happen to be a Point Given or a Giant's Causeway fan?

Hes always liked the Gulch horses.

[Handicappy]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

I have never seen a 42/1 morning line....Battaglia is working overtime.

LOL, I guess he likes him a little bit.

[Handicappy]

Originally Posted by nomad

Only a bad trip/traffic problems would prevent I Want Revenge from winning. Hold me Back for the place spot
I would certainly worry about WestSide Bernie, peaking at the right time.

I think you can say that about a number of horses in here. Trouble is you have an inexperienced joc (if you question this look at how he finished up the Gotham) prone to getting overly excited and a horse that will be a handful if the impressions of folks on the track are any indication. He has run huge on the dirt. But he has never faced 100k+ fans, 20 horses and all the hoopla.

What all that means is that a bad trip/traffic is far more possible. I am not sure yet who I think can win, but it will be 3 or 4 that will be in play and IWR will have to beat me. Expecially since he is likely to get bet down by post time.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Handicappy

I think you can say that about a number of horses in here. Trouble is you have an inexperienced joc (if you question this look at how he finished up the Gotham) prone to getting overly excited and a horse that will be a handful if the impressions of folks on the track are any indication. He has run huge on the dirt. But he has never faced 100k+ fans, 20 horses and all the hoopla.

What all that means is that a bad trip/traffic is far more possible. I am not sure yet who I think can win, but it will be 3 or 4 that will be in play and IWR will have to beat me. Expecially since he is likely to get bet down by post time.

I really need somebody to explain to me how or why he isn't the overwhelming favorite to win this race. In my opinion, his last two starts are both better than any race any other horse in the field has ever run. His workout two days ago over the track was ultra-sharp, he has a good post position, he has tactical speed, has demonstrated that he can handle dirt, etc. etc. etc.

To me he is clearly the best horse coming into the race. Obviously any number of things could happen in a 20-horse race, and I understand a desire to try to beat a favorite. But if that favorite is much the best and is something like 7/2.....I'm not sure it makes much sense to pass that up.

[GBBob]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I really need somebody to explain to me how or why he isn't the overwhelming favorite to win this race. In my opinion, his last two starts are both better than any race any other horse in the field has ever run. His workout two days ago over the track was ultra-sharp, he has a good post position, he has tactical speed, has demonstrated that he can handle dirt, etc. etc. etc.

To me he is clearly the best horse coming into the race. Obviously any number of things could happen in a 20-horse race, and I understand a desire to try to beat a favorite. But if that favorite is much the best and is something like 7/2.....I'm not sure it makes much sense to pass that up.

but..but...the Sheeeeets say...

[pweizer]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I really need somebody to explain to me how or why he isn't the overwhelming favorite to win this race. In my opinion, his last two starts are both better than any race any other horse in the field has ever run. His workout two days ago over the track was ultra-sharp, he has a good post position, he has tactical speed, has demonstrated that he can handle dirt, etc. etc. etc.

To me he is clearly the best horse coming into the race. Obviously any number of things could happen in a 20-horse race, and I understand a desire to try to beat a favorite. But if that favorite is much the best and is something like 7/2.....I'm not sure it makes much sense to pass that up.

I will offer an explanation. IWR's last two races were very good. But what did he beat? In the two NY races combined, he beat two horses with any graded stakes earnings. One other has come back to win, the rest are still eligible for non-winners of 1 allowance races. His win in the Wood was so visually impressive because of the trouble he overcame that it is easy to overlook what he beat that day.

IWR also has twice lost to POTN who incidently happens to have a four race win streak coming in. The dirt is the wildcard. We know IWR loves it. We can't say for sure that POTN will. However, from all accounts he has trained wonderfully over it. I see no reason that he won't continue his winning ways saturday.

Paul

[kgar311]

Originally Posted by pweizer

I will offer an explanation. IWR's last two races were very good. But what did he beat? In the two NY races combined, he beat two horses with any graded stakes earnings. One other has come back to win, the rest are still eligible for non-winners of 1 allowance races. His win in the Wood was so visually impressive because of the trouble he overcame that it is easy to overlook what he beat that day.

IWR also has twice lost to POTN who incidently happens to have a four race win streak coming in. The dirt is the wildcard. We know IWR loves it. We can't say for sure that POTN will. However, from all accounts he has trained wonderfully over it. I see no reason that he won't continue his winning ways saturday.

Paul

He has trained well over it but has yet to have that same dirt kicked in his face

[tjfla]

Originally Posted by kgar311

He has trained well over it but has yet to have that same dirt kicked in his face

That is the big problem I got with POTN, either gonna have dirt or mud in his face. Its not like Cali where he gets plastic bouncing off him

[pweizer]

Originally Posted by tjfla

That is the big problem I got with POTN, either gonna have dirt or mud in his face. Its not like Cali where he gets plastic bouncing off him

Which is why I will get a square price on him. Look, every horse in the race has question marks. None have ever run this far, none have ever faced 20 horse fields, etc.

If IWR had stayed in California, you by the same logic would be writing him off as well. Yet we all know he handled the dirt kickback just fine. Same with Papa Clem. I will take my chances with a horse who hasn't lost this year, who has one of the top jockey/trainer combos possible, and one who will offer serious value as the fifth choice.

Paul

[nomad]

Originally Posted by Handicappy

I think you can say that about a number of horses in here. Trouble is you have an inexperienced joc (if you question this look at how he finished up the Gotham) prone to getting overly excited and a horse that will be a handful if the impressions of folks on the track are any indication. He has run huge on the dirt. But he has never faced 100k+ fans, 20 horses and all the hoopla.

What all that means is that a bad trip/traffic is far more possible. I am not sure yet who I think can win, but it will be 3 or 4 that will be in play and IWR will have to beat me. Expecially since he is likely to get bet down by post time.

I really think IWR is the horse to beat. He has everything going for him. Somehow I am not a big Pioneer fan, a horse that beat IWR twice in Cal. I think he is a bit of head case, the way he was pulling Gomez in the SA Derby. I would not discount Musket Man, who is 5 for 6. Hold Me Back doesn't seem to have the speed figures but Giant's Causeways can run on anything & I liked the way he was closing in the BG, should cherish the extra distance.

Soooo

As of this moment, I like IWR, Hold Me back, Musket Man & POTN.
The other dangerous horse is Dunkirk.
Jeez ....5 horses! I'm trying to narrow it down. But if one of those 5 doesn't win, I'll be surprised.

[nomad]

Originally Posted by Handicappy

I think you can say that about a number of horses in here. Trouble is you have an inexperienced joc (if you question this look at how he finished up the Gotham) prone to getting overly excited and a horse that will be a handful if the impressions of folks on the track are any indication. He has run huge on the dirt. But he has never faced 100k+ fans, 20 horses and all the hoopla.

What all that means is that a bad trip/traffic is far more possible. I am not sure yet who I think can win, but it will be 3 or 4 that will be in play and IWR will have to beat me. Expecially since he is likely to get bet down by post time.

As far as Talamo. I follow Cal racing every day. He is one of the best. I wouldn't worry about his inexperience.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by pweizer

If IWR had stayed in California, you by the same logic would be writing him off as well.

His sire is 3-for-117 with 1st time turfers - and his dam couldn't outrun a goat on turf when she raced here - and turf and synthetic are pretty much the same thing -- so ... while IWR utterly stinks on synthetic tracks - I would have considered IWR the best pedigree projection to improve on dirt of the synthetic horses but he would only have been my longshot flyer for underneath in a race where I would have had knocks on everything.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by pweizer

Which is why I will get a square price on him. Look, every horse in the race has question marks. None have ever run this far, none have ever faced 20 horse fields, etc.

If IWR had stayed in California, you by the same logic would be writing him off as well. Yet we all know he handled the dirt kickback just fine. Same with Papa Clem. I will take my chances with a horse who hasn't lost this year, who has one of the top jockey/trainer combos possible, and one who will offer serious value as the fifth choice.

Paul

I have a big problem with POTN, and it has nothing to do with synthetics versus dirt.

He's too slow.