Smooth Air - Page 9

blackthroatedwind · #**161** 04-23-2008, 10:05 PM

The argument for Smooth Air ( from what I can tell around here ) is, number one, he has a nice trainer, and number two, this Derby field stinks.

But, it's ( apparently ) the dissenters that can't back up their opinion.

ateamstupid · #**162** 04-23-2008, 10:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The argument for Smooth Air ( from what I can tell around here ) is, number one, he has a nice trainer, and number two, this Derby field stinks.

But, it's ( apparently ) the dissenters that can't back up their opinion.

Exactly.

miraja2 · #**163** 04-23-2008, 10:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

His internal fractions were pretty quick in the Florida Derby, so I disagree that the race was set up for him. I agree though that the "fitness" argument is fairly silly. If all it took to get a ten-furlong horse was putting some long works in him, then I'm pretty sure every trainer would be at it.

Well if you think that argument is silly - and I agree - what the hell DO you like about him?

Scav · #**164** 04-23-2008, 10:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

The way I see it, in this terrible field, you should have to prove why somebody DOESN'T have a shot, and no one's done that with Smooth Air.

I've said why I like him, but if you wanna hear it again..

He's got figures comparable to anything anybody else (except for Big Brown and Pyro) has run, he's got a fine distance pedigree, and he's got ideal tactical speed. His small stature concerns me slightly, but at 25-1+, I honestly don't understand how anybody can be tossing him.

As for me being a "sheet user", I use the TG numbers, but I'm not like you in that I don't think there are these rigid rules for what's going to happen in the next race based on a horse's "pattern". Most of the time, I don't really care much what a horse's "pattern" is, I just want to see if he/she has run fast enough to contend. Smooth Air, according to Beyers and TG figs, has indisputably done so.

TG's have far from ridgid rules but there are specific patterns that are more profitable then others. I wouldn't consider Pyro fast, because his two numbers this year are on average with everyone else. I personally think the number from the BC is cooked, because of the condition of the track.

I question his fine distance pedigree, Storm Boot is not known for 10 panel horses, and his damn didn't route at all, she was bred to be any kind. While he does have ideal running type, he has that at 7f and 8.5f, last time he was 'given' that running style by his post, he got an ideal trip, and probably should have run a little bit better. And his number did come back fast, but he is far more likely to off or X off that effort IMO, then he is to move forward or pair that effort, an off here, doesn't have him in the top five, as their are several forward moving horses coming in. They might be slow this year, but at least they are progressing....

GBBob · #**165** 04-23-2008, 10:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The argument for Smooth Air ( from what I can tell around here ) is, number one, he has a nice trainer, and number two, this Derby field stinks.
But, it's ( apparently ) the dissenters that can't back up their opinion.

Isn't that the arguement for/against every horse so far?

ArlJim78 · #**166** 04-23-2008, 10:15 PM

anyone else tired of Big Brown, Smooth Air, and TomCito?

blackthroatedwind · #**167** 04-23-2008, 10:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

anyone else tired of Big Brown, Smooth Air, and TomCito?

Maybe someone needs to start a Cool Coal Man thread.

the_fat_man · #**168** 04-23-2008, 10:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

However, in a nutshell, while Smooth Air is a nice and talented horse, what he showed inarguably is that he will not get better as the distances get longer. He had an absolute dream trip and set-up in the Florida Derby, made what looked to be a winning move on the turn, and then had absolutely no finish. The only reason he finished second was that there were no horses of quality ( besides the winner ) competing that day. Any that may be better than him, Elysium Fields comes to mind, did not fire at all. Essentially he was second by default....just as Tomcito was third for the same reasons. Look how many were fooled by him.

While I wasn't fooled by Tomcito (and I'm not exactly at the head of my class), who clearly got the best of it tripwise, I'm interested as to why you think that SA got a perfect trip. It's not his fault that Elysium Fields or any of the others didn't run, and I certainly don't blame him for being outrun in the stretch by Big Brown.

I'll be loading up on him in the DERBY, just as soon as I collect my money from my bet last year on Coaltown Cat.