#41
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#42
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I don't have the numbers in front of me, but how many horses have started in posts 11 and 12 over the past 4 years?
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#43
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Here come the trolls...
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#44
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Dig deeper. Give me stats with ODDS. Give me some names/races of horses losing from the outside post that actually had a shot to win the race. Even though it's over a 4 year period, I can't believe that there are many races, given the 1 or 2 carded each week. I agree with the last part. If I'm waiting around to make a killing on BB and then feel skunked when he gets the outside post, I'm definitely in need of a method tuneup. |
#45
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#46
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I wasn't going to bet Big Brown before the draw and I certainly am not going to after. He could end up being the best horse in this field...although I doubt it...but he isn't winning. |
#47
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i am a track dynamics guy. This isn't a once a year thing for me when GP runs its 9 furlong dirt stakes. When a poor breaking early speed horse couldn't clear from post 12 in a mile turf race @gp , i know he has 5 more seconds to get there today 8.5TRUF. if it goes off the turf to 8main he has 35 more seconds... PROBABLY A 2HORSE RAC a lot will depend on brown. A lot will depend on Elysium fields. Can EF actually relax and settle? Tomcito is a longshot, but at least he has a glimmer of hope. Even if Tomcito is very good he probably needs a race. horses like hey byrne are bums |
#48
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__________________
http://www.facebook.com/cajungator26 |
#49
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Maybe they should just scratch BB and find another race.
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#50
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#51
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#52
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GP 1 Year stats 9.0 Dirt FAST - 31 Races Inside 2 posts in all field sizes = 48% winners Outside 2 posts in all field sizes = 13% Winners Inside post in fields of 10 or more = 1 of 6 Outside post in fields of 10 or more = 0 of 6 9.0 Dirt WET - 8 Races Inside 2 posts in all field sizes = 50% winners Outside 2 posts in all field sizes = 38% Winners Inside post in fields of 10 or more = 0 of 1 Outside post in fields of 10 or more = 0 of 1 |
#53
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The stats are big. and they make sense. you get 11 seconds run up from the gate to the turn. You don't have time to swing behind, and you can't clear. You pretty much have to get forwardly placed,take a little contact and be happy with about 5 wide. Big Brown fits those requirements, but we've only seen 2 races. He may be great he may be good , he may be too fragile. How much does that little burst and being 5 wide cost a Big Brown in terms of lengths when compared with his rivals? 5 lengths? 8 lengths? |
#54
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#55
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'06 FL DERBY
10. Barbaro (1.60) 7. Sharp Humor (6.40) 5. Sun River (4.30) 3 11. Sam's Ace (34.70) 1. Hesanoldsalt (39.90) 8. High Blues (18.30) 2. Flashy Bull (4.00) 9. Charming Image (92.00) 3. Saint Augustus (25.50) 4. Doc Cheney (25.70) 6. Rehoboth (9.70)
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans |
#56
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Are full entries out for this yet? Obviously if horses like Elysium Fields, Face the Cat, and Hey Byrn draw outside as well it greatly decreases the disadvantage that Big Brown will have.
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#57
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2) Smooth Air (Manuel Cruz) 3) Da' Tara (Joe Bravo) 4) Tomcito (Jorge Chavez) 5) Cool Gator (Eddie Castro) 6) Nistle's Crunch (Julien Leparoux) 7) B B Frank (Javier Castellano) 8) Elysium Fields (Eibar Coa) 9) Hey Byrn (Jose Lezcano) 10) Majestic Warrior (Rene Douglas) 11) Face the Cat (John Velazquez) 12) Big Brown (Kent Desormeoux) |
#58
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I did, however, take a quick look at the beginning of March, a handful of races, and noticed that it just might not be as bad as everyone thinks. I found a winner from the 2nd widest post and a bunch of others that basically had no shot in the race as they had no speed. What is apparent is that you need to be close to win. I can understand the argument that the wide post compromises the chances of a horse that needs to be with the pace and gets hung wide but why would it hurt a closer? Though, the speed bias is probably enough to mitigate some of this. No matter what the data tells me, this makes no sense. A horse can break from the 12, settle behind and inside early, make one run on the turn and, assuming there's pace and some moves in the race, get a perfect trip. |
#59
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2. Smooth Air (Stutts/Cruz) 3. Da'Tara (Zito/Bravo) 4. Tomcito (Zanelli/Chavez) 5. Cool Gator (Vella/Castro) 6. Nistle's Crunch (McPeek/Leparouz) 7. B B Frank (Tarrant/Castellano) 8. Elysium Fields (Tagg/Coa) 9. Hey Byrn (Plesa/Lezcano) 10. Majestic Warrior (Mott/Douglas) 11. Face the Cat (Pletcher/Velasquez) 12. Big Brown (Cutrow/Desormeaux)
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans |
#60
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the only way to do win it is bull up out of the gate, take a brush and be happy with 5 wide, and then beat the others. |
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