3/29 (GP): 57th Florida Derby (Gr. I)

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Remember the FOY when we heard how Adriano was so good he'd be able to overcome the 12 post?

You're KIDDING, right? Adriano, as in ADRIANO the turf/poly specialist?

[whodey17]

I don't have the numbers in front of me, but how many horses have started in posts 11 and 12 over the past 4 years?

Here come the trolls...

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Who behind Barbaro in the Florida Derby had a distinguished career?

As for meaningful data. I'm not sure what could be more meaningful than the fact that this is now the 4th meet with the renovated track and NO ONE has won from that post. No one, as in 0% winners from there. Couple that with the fact he'll be an overpriced favorite off a turf race against dogs and an off the turf race against more dogs. Boy, sounds like a horse I want to bet.

Exactly, Barbaro beat NOTHING. And BB might be in a similar situation.

Dig deeper. Give me stats with ODDS. Give me some names/races of horses losing from the outside post that actually had a shot to win the race. Even though it's over a 4 year period, I can't believe that there are many races, given the 1 or 2 carded each week.


I agree with the last part. If I'm waiting around to make a killing on BB and then feel skunked when he gets the outside post, I'm definitely in need of a method tuneup.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

You're KIDDING, right? Adriano, as in ADRIANO the turf/poly specialist?

I hope you're kidding if you think the post won't severely compromise Big Brown's chances. I just commented cause it's just funny to see a replay of the Fountain of Youth thread already with someone claiming the unproven horse from the 12 hole will crush the field.

[tiggerv]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Who exactly did Barbaro beat in that race? Those BEHIND him had distinguished careers.

I haven't looked the field over but I can't believe there's much in it. If BB is any kind of horse, and I'm not talking about a ***** NEED EVERYTHING ITS OWN WAY TYPE, like War Pass, then he sits comfortably outside and rolls.

As for all the rest of the concern: BB won't be a price. Why in the world would I be gearing up to bet this horse when there's so much OTHER VALUE, in OTHER races out there.

You guys take your STAR ENVY (or STAR wanna be envy) very seriously here.

Who in that race had a distinguished career? Sunriver? I don't have the PPs handy but I don't think there was much in that race and Barbaro ran his heart out to barely do it and he was from the 10th post. BB is drawing even worse.

I wasn't going to bet Big Brown before the draw and I certainly am not going to after. He could end up being the best horse in this field...although I doubt it...but he isn't winning.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Big Brown has no shot to win from that post.

i think he does - if he is as good as he appears.

i am a track dynamics guy. This isn't a once a year thing for me when GP runs its 9 furlong dirt stakes. When a poor breaking early speed horse couldn't clear from post 12 in a mile turf race @gp , i know he has 5 more seconds to get there today 8.5TRUF. if it goes off the turf to 8main he has 35 more seconds...

PROBABLY A 2HORSE RAC
a lot will depend on brown. A lot will depend on Elysium fields. Can EF actually relax and settle? Tomcito is a longshot, but at least he has a glimmer of hope. Even if Tomcito is very good he probably needs a race. horses like hey byrne are bums

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

i think he does - if he is as good as he appears.

i am a track dynamics guy. This isn't a once a year thing for me when GP runs its 9 furlong dirt stakes. When a poor breaking early speed horse couldn't clear from post 12 in a mile turf race @gp , i know he has 5 more seconds to get there today 8.5. if it goes off the turf to 8main he has 35 more seconds...

PROBABLY A 2HORSE RAC
a lot will depend on brown. A lot will depend on Elysium fields. Can EF actually relax and settle? Tomcito is a longshot, but at least he has a glimmer of hope. Even if Tomcito is very good he probably needs a race. horses like hey byrne are bums

I'm not doubting that Big Brown is a very good horse... I'm just going with the facts and the fact is that no horse has won from that post in a 9 furlong race.

[sumitas]

Maybe they should just scratch BB and find another race.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by sumitas

Maybe they should just scratch BB and find another race.

I've heard worse ideas.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Didn't Elysium Fields settle and relax just fine last time?


As for the numbers, all I have is this year. So far this year, posts 11 and 12 are 0 for 8. Interesting though is posts 6-12 are 2 for 79 this season. Of those races, posts 6 and 7 had one victory each. So for the season posts 8-12 are 0 for 36.

You know what my problem is with this data (and not just yours). This distance is run so infrequently at GP, and there are many cases of OFF TRACKS, that I think one needs to actually get in there and look at more than a few closely. See, if in fact, the post, in other words, the EXTRA distance, is the cause. Of course, this would have more impact on horses that run with the pace and are forced into wide trips. Why would breaking from the 12 affect a closer, for example?

[tiggerv]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

You know what my problem is with this data (and not just yours). This distance is run so infrequently at GP, and there are many cases of OFF TRACKS, that I think one needs to actually get in there and look at more than a few closely. See, if in fact, the post, in other words, the EXTRA distance, is the cause. Of course, this would have more impact on horses that run with the pace and are forced into wide trips. Why would breaking from the 12 affect a closer, for example?

Here you go...

GP 1 Year stats
9.0 Dirt FAST - 31 Races
Inside 2 posts in all field sizes = 48% winners
Outside 2 posts in all field sizes = 13% Winners
Inside post in fields of 10 or more = 1 of 6
Outside post in fields of 10 or more = 0 of 6

9.0 Dirt WET - 8 Races
Inside 2 posts in all field sizes = 50% winners
Outside 2 posts in all field sizes = 38% Winners
Inside post in fields of 10 or more = 0 of 1
Outside post in fields of 10 or more = 0 of 1

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Didn't Elysium Fields settle and relax just fine last time?


As for the numbers, all I have is this year. So far this year, posts 11 and 12 are 0 for 8. Interesting though is posts 6-12 are 2 for 79 this season. Of those races, posts 6 and 7 had one victory each. So for the season posts 8-12 are 0 for 36.

I thought he really had to muscle his way into position early, and never really relaxed as much as you would like. Kind of wanted to keep making headway all the way around to the lead. He has the excuse of the outside post, &he relaxed pretty well for being asked early, but the derby is going to throw the same kind of pressure at him or worse. I'd like to see even more patience here.

The stats are big. and they make sense. you get 11 seconds run up from the gate to the turn. You don't have time to swing behind, and you can't clear. You pretty much have to get forwardly placed,take a little contact and be happy with about 5 wide.

Big Brown fits those requirements, but we've only seen 2 races. He may be great he may be good , he may be too fragile.

How much does that little burst and being 5 wide cost a Big Brown in terms of lengths when compared with his rivals? 5 lengths? 8 lengths?

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

You know what my problem is with this data (and not just yours). This distance is run so infrequently at GP, and there are many cases of OFF TRACKS, that I think one needs to actually get in there and look at more than a few closely. See, if in fact, the post, in other words, the EXTRA distance, is the cause. Of course, this would have more impact on horses that run with the pace and are forced into wide trips. Why would breaking from the 12 affect a closer, for example?

0 for 36 from the outside five posts is a little too much to believe it is just a few fluke cases and there have been no actual good horses among those 36. The short runup to the first turn at Gulfstream has a huge impact on these races.

[Kasept]

'06 FL DERBY


10. Barbaro (1.60)
7. Sharp Humor (6.40)
5. Sun River (4.30) 3
11. Sam's Ace (34.70)
1. Hesanoldsalt (39.90)
8. High Blues (18.30)
2. Flashy Bull (4.00)
9. Charming Image (92.00)
3. Saint Augustus (25.50)
4. Doc Cheney (25.70)
6. Rehoboth (9.70)

[SniperSB23]

Are full entries out for this yet? Obviously if horses like Elysium Fields, Face the Cat, and Hey Byrn draw outside as well it greatly decreases the disadvantage that Big Brown will have.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Are full entries out for this yet? Obviously if horses like Elysium Fields, Face the Cat, and Hey Byrn draw outside as well it greatly decreases the disadvantage that Big Brown will have.

1) Fierce Wind (Cornelio Velasquez)
2) Smooth Air (Manuel Cruz)
3) Da' Tara (Joe Bravo)
4) Tomcito (Jorge Chavez)
5) Cool Gator (Eddie Castro)
6) Nistle's Crunch (Julien Leparoux)
7) B B Frank (Javier Castellano)
8) Elysium Fields (Eibar Coa)
9) Hey Byrn (Jose Lezcano)
10) Majestic Warrior (Rene Douglas)
11) Face the Cat (John Velazquez)
12) Big Brown (Kent Desormeoux)

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

0 for 36 from the outside five posts is a little too much to believe it is just a few fluke cases and there have been no actual good horses among those 36. The short runup to the first turn at Gulfstream has a huge impact on these races.

For me to comment precisely on this I need to review all the 2 turn races of the meet. The problem is that only recently have I updated my data where I can look at entire cards together. Which means I need to look through just about all my charts. And, as I'm busy with work, I can't do it. Moreover, I don't have enough interest in the race to do so.

I did, however, take a quick look at the beginning of March, a handful of races, and noticed that it just might not be as bad as everyone thinks. I found a winner from the 2nd widest post and a bunch of others that basically had no shot in the race as they had no speed. What is apparent is that you need to be close to win.

I can understand the argument that the wide post compromises the chances of a horse that needs to be with the pace and gets hung wide but why would it hurt a closer? Though, the speed bias is probably enough to mitigate some of this.
No matter what the data tells me, this makes no sense. A horse can break from the 12, settle behind and inside early, make one run on the turn and, assuming there's pace and some moves in the race, get a perfect trip.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Are full entries out for this yet? Obviously if horses like Elysium Fields, Face the Cat, and Hey Byrn draw outside as well it greatly decreases the disadvantage that Big Brown will have.

1. Fierce Wind (Zito/Velasquez)
2. Smooth Air (Stutts/Cruz)
3. Da'Tara (Zito/Bravo)
4. Tomcito (Zanelli/Chavez)
5. Cool Gator (Vella/Castro)
6. Nistle's Crunch (McPeek/Leparouz)
7. B B Frank (Tarrant/Castellano)
8. Elysium Fields (Tagg/Coa)
9. Hey Byrn (Plesa/Lezcano)
10. Majestic Warrior (Mott/Douglas)
11. Face the Cat (Pletcher/Velasquez)
12. Big Brown (Cutrow/Desormeaux)

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

but why would it hurt a closer? Though, the speed bias is probably enough to mitigate some of this.
No matter what the data tells me, this makes no sense. A horse can break from the 12, settle behind and inside early, make one run on the turn and, assuming there's pace and some moves in the race, get a perfect trip.

with only 11 seconds you dont really have time to drop to the rear either. (unless you were an extreme deep closer who always started extremely slow)

the only way to do win it is bull up out of the gate, take a brush and be happy with 5 wide, and then beat the others.