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#21
03-11-2008, 05:34 PM
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In the BC Juvy, War Pass got an easy lead, even though he set very fast fractions, and no one came to get him because no one else ran at all except for Pyro. I think it had something to do with the condition of the track. Pyro ran much better against War Pass when the track wasn't in that sort of condition in the Champagne. In fact, it looked like to me that War Pass loved those conditions, and maybe improved over the surface. He has never ran anywhere close to as good as he did in the BC Juvy. Also, there may have been a little bit of a rail bias at the beginning of the day. Still, I think the two best horses at that time won the two Juvy races.
I think War Pass is a very good horse, but not as good as everyone is making him out to be. In his comeback at GP, he was loose on the lead yet again, but wasn't all out for that race, which accounts for the lower BSF. They are definitely trying to leave as much as they can in the tank. He ran some at the end of his allowance, but he still could have given more. The only race that War Pass hasn't been loose on the lead is his first start, and he certainly didn't crush some inferior horses. We shall see how good he is... If he can still win the Derby on the lead while being pressured, and holding off horses like Colonel John and El Gato Malo who can currently run their last 1/8 of a mile and an eighth race in less than 12 seconds, then I will say this is a great horse. When War Pass beats a horse like this, I will get excited... This is one of the prettiest moving animals that I have ever seen. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SZqXyVN03mE&NR=1 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X6w_J...eature=related 
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#22
03-11-2008, 05:53 PM
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I thought it was interesting that the chart caller labeled the win "driving" - and not "ridden out" ... but that's pointless anyway. War Pass was OUTSTANDING in the Breeders Cup Juvenile. His comeback race was nothing more than a paid workout ... and hopefully Zito has him ready to make a significant forward leap off of that race. If that Feb 24th win by War Pass wasn't a comeback race - I would be relentlessly bashing the performance.
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#23
03-11-2008, 06:26 PM
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The old " more in the tank " concept makes me laugh. If people want to believe that then I can't convince them otherwise. I know if you rely on it for betting purposes you will get thrashed. Like you I make nothing of his comeback race. Evaluating it is pointless. His previous record speaks for itself. Now we have to see what kind of 3YO he will be.
__________________
Just more nebulous nonsense from BBB
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#24
03-11-2008, 06:26 PM
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His last was a public workout, as will be this weekend. Doubt he will be all out this weekend either.
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#25
03-11-2008, 06:46 PM
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It's interesting ---well, actually it's not as is typical here --
that we're getting alot of rhetoric and even rhetoric with examples that some think actually make a point BUT we have no data --we're thus off course surely, there's ONE dirt race at GP that came home faster the last fraction with all the PEDESTRIAN 1st qtr mile races (yeah, I know about the runup) surely some horse better than WP has accelerated in the stretch, especially in a NON WORKOUT race I'm not even a WP fan but I can certainly properly intrepret unique performances. Still waiting for the 'counterexample'
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#26
03-11-2008, 07:14 PM
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The problem is, that while Commentator only ran 0.20 seconds faster than War Pass in the last quarter - Commentator ran his first six furlongs in 1:09.43 while War Pass ran his first six furlongs in 1:11.90. So, basically, in similar allowance races against nothing fields - with similar trips over the same track and distance - Commentator ran 2.47 seconds faster for the first 6f's (about 15 lengths) - and still finished with a final quarter time 0.20 seconds faster than War Pass. TFM, by making a big deal about the final quarter turned in by War Pass being faster than his 3rd quarter - you are basically in a way giving him credit for accelerating after a VERY soft 3rd quarter of 25.18 seconds. A breather! If he couldn't do that ... he wouldn't even be a good allowance horse.
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#27
03-11-2008, 07:34 PM
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I'm aware of Commentator's splits.
My SINGLULAR point still remains, however, as you didn't respond to it. Surely there've been quite a few SOFT PACED miles at GP this year, why have there been NO OTHER examples where the winner accelerates the final quarter. I could be wrong here. Maybe some horse came off the pace and did exactly this. I simply started this thread to see if someone with a DB could look this up. I'm looking to throw WP out as a derby threat. All I need is ONE example.
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#28
03-11-2008, 07:35 PM
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#29
03-11-2008, 07:45 PM
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you mean pg1985....oh wait, my bad, same thing.
__________________
 Seek respect, not attention.
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#30
03-11-2008, 07:56 PM
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Or are you saying KYRIM and PG are the same person? Thebby, if so, it's a happy day for men with Italian last names everywhere.
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#31
03-11-2008, 08:03 PM
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Just by watching the horse's races over and over again and watching the horse's movement in the race, I would say that War Pass wasn't all out. The only thing I know for sure is that I have seen him run faster. I'll go watch it one more time just to make sure. It is the same with Bernardini. Bernardini wasn't all out in the Jim Dandy, but was in all of his subsequent races after that. Big Brown also looked like he wasn't all out in his last start. Whether he was actually restrained or it was the change in the surface, I don't know. I've also seen him run faster. Their movement in the stretch dictates if they are running as fast as they can or not. You have to compare that from race to race to know in these kinds of situations. And I am not pg1985.
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#32
03-11-2008, 08:04 PM
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I was acutally going to go through the charts and find him an example - but, the very first race I looked at was Monday's only one-turn mile race. In that race - a 25K filly claimer ran her 3rd quarter in 24.43 and her final quarter in 24.64. A whopping 0.21 second deceleration from a nothing filly. And we are supposed to be impressed that War Pass showed a 0.70 second acceleration after a 25.18 3rd quarter? Hopefully someone with a database can answer TFM's question.
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#33
03-11-2008, 08:20 PM
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Commentator was all out in his last.
War Pass was not all out in his last.
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#34
03-11-2008, 08:25 PM
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One of the pace figure makers really needs to answer this one. My intent all along.
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#35
03-11-2008, 08:32 PM
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"24.48?"
"oh thats not too bad" "what was the penultimate?" "25.18?, oh that explains it somewhat" "it was graded stakes level horse, running against claimers under wraps until the stretch?" "oh never mind"
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#36
03-11-2008, 09:35 PM
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His 119 Beyer allowance win was two starts back.
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#37
03-11-2008, 09:41 PM
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#38
03-11-2008, 09:42 PM
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People have taken a pass on War Pass?
I have not seen this. Its always fashionable to try to find another but this horse clearly has established an incredible sustained cruising rate. Far better than any other horse as a 2 and now a 3 year old. If this horse stays sound, draws well, and the Derby track plays fast like many times in the past he does not get caught. Who in the devil does not like this horse?
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#39
03-11-2008, 09:46 PM
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#40
03-11-2008, 09:50 PM
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I still love ya.
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