2/24 (GP): Fountain of Youth (Gr. II)

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

obviously.

however, there aren't exactly any bernardinis in this field either.

i'm going to change my pick in here! i like zito.

No but there may be a Great Point. Or about 8 of them.

[blackthroatedwind]

You're not wrong that nobody here jumps off the page but it is actually a deeper field than we usually get and enough possibly OK horses that we probably won't see an undeserving winner per se. These horses are all so lightly raced that it's hard to have a true handle on anybody.

I think Kentucky Bear is the most talented horse in the race, which you mentioned, but I also worry about this being too much too soon. But, it's not like any of them are that experienced.

[SniperSB23]

Worth noting that Barbaro won the Florida Derby from post 10 so Adriano would actually have to do more than Barbaro did to win from 12. Of course scratches could alter things considerably with two questionable Zayat horses in the field.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

i dont know man. cool coal man looks awful if you ask me. you can make an okay case for the others you name, but i really feel that adriano is such a much better horse than anyone in here, that he really needs to only handle the dirt to beat these.

Why do you think Cool Coal Man looks awful? In my opinion he seems to be steadily improving and looks plenty competitive with these colts at this point.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You're not wrong that nobody here jumps off the page but it is actually a deeper field than we usually get and enough possibly OK horses that we probably won't see an undeserving winner per se. These horses are all so lightly raced that it's hard to have a true handle on anybody.

I think Kentucky Bear is the most talented horse in the race, which you mentioned, but I also worry about this being too much too soon. But, it's not like any of them are that experienced.

I really like Kentucky Bear but I'm worried about the distance in addition to too much too soon. He's not exactly screaming distance pedigree. I hope he wins since I think he has the most upside here and we need some more really good horses to come out of this crop but I'm not sure if he is a good play.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I really like Kentucky Bear but I'm worried about the distance in addition to too much too soon. He's not exactly screaming distance pedigree. I hope he wins since I think he has the most upside here and we need some more really good horses to come out of this crop but I'm not sure if he is a good play.

In my opinion he is likely to be the most overbet horse in the race.
Betting a colt with a sprinter's pedigree stretching out to 9f and stepping way up in class after an off-the-pace score going 8f is not usually a smart move as far as I am concerned.
Perhaps he is really just that good and wins, but as far as betting goes, I am looking elsewhere.

[cakes44]

I'm not really an angle handicapper, but that $.19 ROI on 2nd starters for Reade Baker is something else. I don't remember seeing a number that low in a graded race.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

i'm going to change my pick in here! i like zito.

Now you're gettin' it!

[Bobby Fischer]

kentucky bear has such a slim chance of being anything more than an allowance horse. Baker is known for send his 1st timers out in mid-season shape, and most of them are at a peak and good for maybe a maiden and an allowance. Kb drew into such a weak maiden field and it was pretty hard to tell if he really galloped out as well as it appeared or the field was that bad.

Plenty of better allowance horses entered like Cool Coal Man, Elysium Fields or even Golden spikes.

Can't see Make the Point or Adriano getting the trip they need, but they are decent horses. Worth reviewing their performances after the race with the track config in mind. You get 11 seconds to turn1.

For the sake of the division, like to see Court Vision, Anak Nakal, Monba, or Adriano run a big race. Not in love with Gomez on CV, although if Go-Go gives his good stuff their styles mesh well and could win it on the far turn.

[pick4]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

And this is what I don't get... why wouldn't the connections want their goal to be a win for their horse in a prep? Is it some sort of jinx to have your horse actually WIN the race that it's entered into? Another thing too is that this race is a prep for most of them entered, not just Court Vision...

Obviously I'm not privy to the thoughts of the trainer and owner.What I meant is do you want this horse to run a race like Read The Footnotes and Second of June in the 04 FOY? It was a race that probably had adverse effects on each horse. I'm guessing that they just want to put a race into the horse and if they win that's great. However the ultimate goal being that he runs well and comes out of the race in good shape.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by pick4

What I meant is do you want this horse to run a race like Read The Footnotes and Second of June in the 04 FOY?

Or like Street Sense and Any Given Saturday last year at Tamp....oh wait, nevermind.

[pick4]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Or like Street Sense and Any Given Saturday last year at Tamp....oh wait, nevermind.

You might be correct.

[IrishofNDMan]

I'm going to go with Cool Coal Man, might be my only bet of the day.

[miraja2]

It will be interesting to see what the odds look like at post-time for this one.
Personally, I like Anak Nakal....especially if he is in the 6/1 range.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by miraja2

It will be interesting to see what the odds look like at post-time for this one.
Personally, I like Anak Nakal....especially if he is in the 6/1 range.

My guess is someone goes off as a 7/2 favorite. As for who that'll be.. Uh, Monba?

This seems to be a very competitive race.
I just dont really like anybody.
I guess
Court Vision looked good getting all boxed
in a roaring out in the Remsen
but that race was so slow and a while back.
The horse Court Vision caught took what
I thought was a very bad step early in the
backstretch and was really not running well
at the end at all.

I wish I had some feeling cause I think money
will be spread all over the board with what
look to be impressive allowance winners.

[wac]

It seems most think that Monba will be coming from off the pace but in his races before the race in Cali wasn't he near the pace? I've just got my fingers crossed tomm for a good performance b/c i have a future bet on him. I hated doing it at 15-1 but i love his breeding and the fact that he closed into fast fractions in that race in Cali. Dont have the money to bet right now so won't be betting tomm but am excited to see the race.

[Travis Stone]

Is it me, or is Make the Point the only horse first or second at the pace call in the entire fields last two starts? I know some are coming out of sprint races and are likely to have some early presence, but it's not like this race has three to five one dimensional speed balls.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Is it me, or is Make the Point the only horse first or second at the pace call in the entire fields last two starts? I know some are coming out of sprint races and are likely to have some early presence, but it's not like this race has three to five one dimensional speed balls.

It's tough to clear from out there in 1 1/8 races at Gulfstream, and Halo Najib and even Anak Nakal should go enough inside of him, not to mention the real speed of Golden Spikes, even Cool Coal Man, and possibly Kentucky Bear and Z Humor, that he is almost doomed to five or six wide into the turn. Is he fast enough to go on from there? Possibly, but how much energy can he really expend to get the front without severly compromising his chances?

I've settled on Cool Coal Man as my top choice. Running style fits the distance perfectly. The upgrade to Desormeaux doesn't hurt either.