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View Poll Results: Who is your top Derby contender
Essential Quality 3 9.09%
Known Agenda 9 27.27%
Hot Rod Charlie 2 6.06%
Rock Your World 7 21.21%
Super Stock 2 6.06%
Concert Tour 2 6.06%
Highly Motivated 3 9.09%
Medina Spirit 2 6.06%
Soup and Sandwich 2 6.06%
Other 1 3.03%
Voters: 33. You may not vote on this poll

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  #21  
Old 04-20-2021, 11:29 AM
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moses moses is offline
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You dont like rock your world i take it? I thought his race in SA derby was pretty good but if im missing something let me know b/c i know you are a really good handicapper. thanks
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Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind View Post
Seems like he won the SA Derby under ideal circumstances, controlled the pace ( which is highly unlikely to happen in the KY Derby ) and ran on the inside which seems to have been a distinct advantage that day. I suppose he can win, but he’s a bit dressed up by circumstance, and he looks like a potential dramatic underlay.

I rarely pick the Derby winner. My Preakness record is MUCH stronger:-)
It sounds like you and DaHoss are on the same page. The problem I'm having with this race is that the other "top contenders" seem to have also had pretty ideal circumstances in their most recent races.

Essential Quality always seems to work out a nearly perfect, untroubled trip. Can we expect that on Derby Day? I'm not so sure and it's not like his figures tower over this field to the point where I feel confident he can overcome any trouble he may run into.

I love the incremental fractions that Known Agenda set in the Florida Derby but he got pretty close to a perfect trip. He did seem to lightly bump with Soup and Sandwich at the top of the stretch and then ended up in the middle of the track. (Two races back, he seemed to move inward at the top of the stretch and was so much better than the competition that he was luckily clear of the runner up. But I'm a little concerned with how his trip will work out in the Derby and how he'll negotiate that final turn.)

Hot Rod Charlie controlled the pace in the LA Derby but I don't think he can do that in this race. And while he's run well coming from off the pace and seems like he could be primed to run big, I'm not sure he's going to win doing that.

Highly Motivated controlled a fairly modest pace in the Blue Grass, tired down the stretch, and was finished off by Essential Quality. Normally, you could make the case that he's eligible to improve in his 3rd off the layoff but I feel like Chad Brown normally has his horses ready to run regardless of a layoff and, based on that race and his pedigree, I'm just not sure he can "get the distance."

So I circle back to Rock Your World.
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  #22  
Old 04-20-2021, 11:46 AM
blackthroatedwind blackthroatedwind is offline
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Highly Motivated controlled a fairly modest pace in the Blue Grass, tired down the stretch, and was finished off by Essential Quality. Normally, you could make the case that he's eligible to improve in his 3rd off the layoff but I feel like Chad Brown normally has his horses ready to run regardless of a layoff and, based on that race and his pedigree, I'm just not sure he can "get the distance."
He didn't exactly "control" a fairly modest pace. He actually set it with the favorite, and eventual winner, sitting right outside of him. He didn't exactly "tire" down the stretch...he just finished slightly less well than the horse that is highly likely to be favored in the Derby, and about one third of the price that he will be in that race. Is it possible that Chad Brown considers him a better horse when rating, and only went to the lead in the Blue Grass because if he didn't, Essential Quality would have waltzed on the lead, making him essentially unbeatable?

Good Magic ran third in his 3YO debut, ran a similar race to Highly Motivated in the Blue Grass ( he won but he hardly beat much and if I recall correctly ran a very similar figure ), and then gave Justify a run for his money in the Derby ( and Preakness ). Isn't Highly Motivated following a similar pattern to Chad Brown's most successful Derby runner? How about Normandy Invasion? He was a mediocre second in the Wood, and then ran arguably the best race in the Derby. Isn't a better argument that Chad Brown has demonstrated a good plan for getting his Derby contenders to peak on the first Saturday in May?

I'm not trying to sing the praises of Highly Motivated, who agreeably has some real distance questions, more poking realistic holes in the argument that you made.
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  #23  
Old 04-20-2021, 01:14 PM
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moses moses is offline
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Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind View Post
He didn't exactly "control" a fairly modest pace. He actually set it with the favorite, and eventual winner, sitting right outside of him. He didn't exactly "tire" down the stretch...he just finished slightly less well than the horse that is highly likely to be favored in the Derby, and about one third of the price that he will be in that race. Is it possible that Chad Brown considers him a better horse when rating, and only went to the lead in the Blue Grass because if he didn't, Essential Quality would have waltzed on the lead, making him essentially unbeatable?

Good Magic ran third in his 3YO debut, ran a similar race to Highly Motivated in the Blue Grass ( he won but he hardly beat much and if I recall correctly ran a very similar figure ), and then gave Justify a run for his money in the Derby ( and Preakness ). Isn't Highly Motivated following a similar pattern to Chad Brown's most successful Derby runner? How about Normandy Invasion? He was a mediocre second in the Wood, and then ran arguably the best race in the Derby. Isn't a better argument that Chad Brown has demonstrated a good plan for getting his Derby contenders to peak on the first Saturday in May?

I'm not trying to sing the praises of Highly Motivated, who agreeably has some real distance questions, more poking realistic holes in the argument that you made.
I appreciate the feedback. It gives me something to consider that I hadn’t been thinking about before.
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  #24  
Old 04-20-2021, 02:11 PM
wac wac is offline
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Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind View Post
He didn't exactly "control" a fairly modest pace. He actually set it with the favorite, and eventual winner, sitting right outside of him. He didn't exactly "tire" down the stretch...he just finished slightly less well than the horse that is highly likely to be favored in the Derby, and about one third of the price that he will be in that race. Is it possible that Chad Brown considers him a better horse when rating, and only went to the lead in the Blue Grass because if he didn't, Essential Quality would have waltzed on the lead, making him essentially unbeatable?

Good Magic ran third in his 3YO debut, ran a similar race to Highly Motivated in the Blue Grass ( he won but he hardly beat much and if I recall correctly ran a very similar figure ), and then gave Justify a run for his money in the Derby ( and Preakness ). Isn't Highly Motivated following a similar pattern to Chad Brown's most successful Derby runner? How about Normandy Invasion? He was a mediocre second in the Wood, and then ran arguably the best race in the Derby. Isn't a better argument that Chad Brown has demonstrated a good plan for getting his Derby contenders to peak on the first Saturday in May?

I'm not trying to sing the praises of Highly Motivated, who agreeably has some real distance questions, more poking realistic holes in the argument that you made.
really liked Good Magic in BC juvy that year. Good horse. i think highly motivated has some talent and he ran tough vs ess qualt. was a good race. i guess we will have to see how the pp's come out and the weather as well. Always hold my breath on that hate to see them run in the slop. Thanks for responding BTW i know you are a busy man and have a lot of things going on at this time of the year.
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  #25  
Old 04-20-2021, 03:50 PM
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ninetoone ninetoone is offline
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Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind View Post
He didn't exactly "control" a fairly modest pace. He actually set it with the favorite, and eventual winner, sitting right outside of him. He didn't exactly "tire" down the stretch...he just finished slightly less well than the horse that is highly likely to be favored in the Derby, and about one third of the price that he will be in that race. Is it possible that Chad Brown considers him a better horse when rating, and only went to the lead in the Blue Grass because if he didn't, Essential Quality would have waltzed on the lead, making him essentially unbeatable?

Good Magic ran third in his 3YO debut, ran a similar race to Highly Motivated in the Blue Grass ( he won but he hardly beat much and if I recall correctly ran a very similar figure ), and then gave Justify a run for his money in the Derby ( and Preakness ). Isn't Highly Motivated following a similar pattern to Chad Brown's most successful Derby runner? How about Normandy Invasion? He was a mediocre second in the Wood, and then ran arguably the best race in the Derby. Isn't a better argument that Chad Brown has demonstrated a good plan for getting his Derby contenders to peak on the first Saturday in May?

I'm not trying to sing the praises of Highly Motivated, who agreeably has some real distance questions, more poking realistic holes in the argument that you made.
Your first paragraph is exactly where I'm at....he could get lost on the board and one hiccup for EQ and the slight margin that he won by in the Blue Grass is history. The odds of that happening in a field of 20 are good enough for me to take a big swing...
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