Hong Kong Plays 2020-21

[Kitan]

New Hong Kong season starting up later today (or tomorrow, depending on where you are). Most of my recent focus has been on this circuit so I'll try and post some plays throughout the season. Don’t know how much interest there will be, so I’ll keep them all in this one thread.

Race 1:
#10 The Full Bloom: Have been tracking this one for a while now. Five-time winner is very well weighted off a rating of 23 and has been working well for this. 7yo now but in his last turf start showed he still had something when running a nice 3rd in his second run that week. Would have preferred him next week in a 1400m event, but he does have a win at 1650m, ironically at 166-1 when running down my top pick that day…

Race 5:
#1 Ezra: Played him last time but he was spinning wheels a bit on the yielding surface. Had excuses the two starts prior. Won his first start last season off a similar layoff, under identical race conditions, by 3 ¼ lengths.

Race 7:
#1 Baltic Success: Speed machine has had some excuses in his last few. Blew them away by 3.5 lengths the last time he was over the course and distance in Class 3.

Race 9:
#14 Perfect Pair: Really improved since the trainer change in mid-March. Flashed home with a quick closing sectional at Happy Valley, ignore the wet turf try, and won easily towards the end of last season. Should be able to handle the step-up in class.
#5 Regency Bo Bo: Have a look at his last “run”…I don’t recall ever seeing a riderless horse run like that. Dumped the jockey at the start, swooped essentially the entire field on the turn, moved down to the rail on his own accord, and finished a couple of lengths clear of the “official winner”, who himself was 5 lengths clear of the runner-up. Never out of the money in his four previous season debuts, winning two of them.

PLAYS:
R1 WP 10
R5 WP 1
R7 WP 1
R9 WP 5, 14
R9 EX 5, 14/5, 14

Good luck!

[gamblin4ever]

Originally Posted by Kitan

New Hong Kong season starting up later today (or tomorrow, depending on where you are). Most of my recent focus has been on this circuit so I'll try and post some plays throughout the season. Don’t know how much interest there will be, so I’ll keep them all in this one thread.

Race 1:
#10 The Full Bloom: Have been tracking this one for a while now. Five-time winner is very well weighted off a rating of 23 and has been working well for this. 7yo now but in his last turf start showed he still had something when running a nice 3rd in his second run that week. Would have preferred him next week in a 1400m event, but he does have a win at 1650m, ironically at 166-1 when running down my top pick that day…

Race 5:
#1 Ezra: Played him last time but he was spinning wheels a bit on the yielding surface. Had excuses the two starts prior. Won his first start last season off a similar layoff, under identical race conditions, by 3 ¼ lengths.

Race 7:
#1 Baltic Success: Speed machine has had some excuses in his last few. Blew them away by 3.5 lengths the last time he was over the course and distance in Class 3.

Race 9:
#14 Perfect Pair: Really improved since the trainer change in mid-March. Flashed home with a quick closing sectional at Happy Valley, ignore the wet turf try, and won easily towards the end of last season. Should be able to handle the step-up in class.
#5 Regency Bo Bo: Have a look at his last “run”…I don’t recall ever seeing a riderless horse run like that. Dumped the jockey at the start, swooped essentially the entire field on the turn, moved down to the rail on his own accord, and finished a couple of lengths clear of the “official winner”, who himself was 5 lengths clear of the runner-up. Never out of the money in his four previous season debuts, winning two of them.

PLAYS:
R1 WP 10
R5 WP 1
R7 WP 1
R9 WP 5, 14
R9 EX 5, 14/5, 14

Good luck!

I enjoy playing Sha Tin, not HV too much. Thanks for your insights & picks.

[Kitan]

Originally Posted by gamblin4ever

I enjoy playing Sha Tin, not HV too much. Thanks for your insights & picks.

HV definitely has its quirks, but generally lots of potential value to be found there.

[Kitan]

Originally Posted by Kitan

R1 WP 10 3rd @ 6-1, $4.20 place
R5 WP 1 4th @ 9-1
R7 WP 1 4th @ 17-1
R9 WP 5, 14 7th @ 12-1; 12th at 9-1
R9 EX 5, 14/5, 14

Didn't strike on opening day but might be worth following a few of these that didn't run poorly and may move forward in their second start of the season. Only one with a real excuse and that was the 14 in R9, who covered extra ground the whole trip.

Running total (based on minimum denomination)
Bet: $22
Return: $4.20
Total: -$17.80

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Kitan

New Hong Kong season starting up later today (or tomorrow, depending on where you are). Most of my recent focus has been on this circuit so I'll try and post some plays throughout the season. Don’t know how much interest there will be, so I’ll keep them all in this one thread.

Race 1:
#10 The Full Bloom: Have been tracking this one for a while now. Five-time winner is very well weighted off a rating of 23 and has been working well for this. 7yo now but in his last turf start showed he still had something when running a nice 3rd in his second run that week. Would have preferred him next week in a 1400m event, but he does have a win at 1650m, ironically at 166-1 when running down my top pick that day…

Race 5:
#1 Ezra: Played him last time but he was spinning wheels a bit on the yielding surface. Had excuses the two starts prior. Won his first start last season off a similar layoff, under identical race conditions, by 3 ¼ lengths.

Race 7:
#1 Baltic Success: Speed machine has had some excuses in his last few. Blew them away by 3.5 lengths the last time he was over the course and distance in Class 3.

Race 9:
#14 Perfect Pair: Really improved since the trainer change in mid-March. Flashed home with a quick closing sectional at Happy Valley, ignore the wet turf try, and won easily towards the end of last season. Should be able to handle the step-up in class.
#5 Regency Bo Bo: Have a look at his last “run”…I don’t recall ever seeing a riderless horse run like that. Dumped the jockey at the start, swooped essentially the entire field on the turn, moved down to the rail on his own accord, and finished a couple of lengths clear of the “official winner”, who himself was 5 lengths clear of the runner-up. Never out of the money in his four previous season debuts, winning two of them.

PLAYS:
R1 WP 10
R5 WP 1
R7 WP 1
R9 WP 5, 14
R9 EX 5, 14/5, 14

Good luck!

Your posts on overseas racing are definitely of interest to me.

[Kitan]

First Happy Valley card of the season tomorrow (early morning North American time). As with the season opener, a few of these names might pop up again here in their second or third starts of the campaign, but let's hope they're right fresh.

Race 1:
#4 Win All: Has done absolutely nothing on the track in his five starts to date, but eligible to improve dropping down into Class 5 with the benefit of an off-season. Has put in a lot of work for this, which has looked good, and finally draws a good post in a very weak race.

Race 2:
#10 Even Keel is another who hasn’t done a thing in HK, but he at least has two earlier wins in the UK. He’s still a 4yo, and sometimes the Northern Hemisphere horses take a while to acclimatize---he’s down 28 rating points from his arrival. In any case, he didn’t look too bad at HV at the end of last season and seems to have benefited from the off-season and trainer change, as he looked good in a recent trial with different headgear. Worth a shot in another race lacking depth.

Race 3:
I’ve been following #4 Momentum Galaxy for a while now as he’s racked up a few excuses. In his four Class 4 runs (in order), he’s been blocked for nearly the whole stretch, missed the start by six lengths, drew wide in a race full of speed, and then was on the dirt. I’m a bit concerned that maybe this is just to stretch his legs before stepping up to 1200m, but he did win over 1100m in Australia, and he should get a perfect trip with there seemingly being little speed drawn inside him.

Also going to mention #11 For Fun's Sake, who also sports a slew of excuses, and although I'm tempted at that price with the 5lbs apprentice, I think the 1000m will be too short for me to play him on top. Might be worth a few place dollars, however.

Race 5:
#10 Authentic Champ: Obviously has had some problems, as shown by the nearly 1.5 year gap between his first and second starts, but he did show some ability on those occasions. His third, and last, start was over 1650m, which was likely too far. Back to 1200m for a trainer who hit at a relatively big (for HK) clip over this course and distance last year, and the price looks right.

Race 8:
#7 Keep You Warm: I played this one in the final Sha Tin race last season where he had some traffic trouble and got clear too late. Irish-bred and hence still a 3yo, so very much open to having improved over the last couple of months. Should get a great trip from post 4.

PLAYS:
R1 WP 4
R2 WP 10
R3 WP 4, P 11
R5 WP 10
R8 WP 7

Good luck!

[geeker2]

Great Job Kitan!

[chuck60]

Kudos Kitan! Awesome plays, sorry I missed them.

For those who want to play Hong Kong, check out the Hong Kong Jockey Club site:

https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/infor...g/Entries.aspx

Having started to play HK heavily this year, there is so much information on this site that is available, far beyond the PP charts.

I do appreciate the way that it appears that no nonsense (hearding, changing running lanes, excessive whipping when a horse is out of it, the way they rush a horse to the front just to die) is tolerated as jockeys and trainers are commented on and punished on a regular basis. A much cleaner way of racing and certainly more humane to the horse than the US. Just my 2 cents here.

Good luck in the 8th!

[ADJMK]

Race 3:
I’ve been following #4 Momentum Galaxy for a while now as he’s racked up a few excuses. In his four Class 4 runs (in order), he’s been blocked for nearly the whole stretch, missed the start by six lengths, drew wide in a race full of speed, and then was on the dirt. I’m a bit concerned that maybe this is just to stretch his legs before stepping up to 1200m, but he did win over 1100m in Australia, and he should get a perfect trip with there seemingly being little speed drawn inside him.

$58.90
Ex to 7/5 fav - $197

Hope you cashed a little

[Kitan]

Originally Posted by Kitan

PLAYS:
R1 WP 4 1st @ 5-1 ($12.40, $4.50)
R2 WP 10 7th @ 17-1
R3 WP 4, P 11 1st @ 28-1 ($58.90, $11.80); 8th @ 52-1
R5 WP 10 9th @ 11-1
R8 WP 7 8th @ 11-1

Running total (based on minimum denomination)
Bet: $44
Return: $91.80
Total: +$57.00

Can't believe the winner of the first paid so relatively little, but I guess that meant he was live. Also nice to get a longshot winner on a long-time "horse to follow". Needed the 7 to get up for 2nd for the tri, but can't complain about $58.90 to win. The other picks didn't run too poorly, so will probably see some these names back in this thread over the coming weeks, as mentioned.

[Kitan]

Originally Posted by geeker2

Great Job Kitan!

Originally Posted by ADJMK

Hope you cashed a little

Originally Posted by chuck60

Kudos Kitan! Awesome plays, sorry I missed them.

Thanks, all!

Originally Posted by chuck60

For those who want to play Hong Kong, check out the Hong Kong Jockey Club site:

https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/infor...g/Entries.aspx

Having started to play HK heavily this year, there is so much information on this site that is available, far beyond the PP charts.

I do appreciate the way that it appears that no nonsense (hearding, changing running lanes, excessive whipping when a horse is out of it, the way they rush a horse to the front just to die) is tolerated as jockeys and trainers are commented on and punished on a regular basis. A much cleaner way of racing and certainly more humane to the horse than the US. Just my 2 cents here.

I agree with all these sentiments...information is much more transparent there and you can find basically anything you are looking for. Once you get past the initial "information overload" it makes it hard to go back and play circuits where you only get the bare bones. Case in point was hearing Bill Mott mention a horse that recently won had worked poorly with blinkers, but I would never have known that otherwise without that interview post Stakes win, which anyways was too late (the day after the runner won). I watched the work on XBTV and wondered why the horse worked so poorly when the next work was spectacular...being able to know if horses had certain equipment on for given works, if they had a lameness/sickness issue which caused a poor run, etc. are all crucial information pieces for bettors.

[Kitan]

Far from an enthralling card, but a few plays early and one a bit later…

Race 1:
Not a lot of depth in the first dirt race of the season. #8 Viva Council pulled up lame when last seen but showed no signs of that when easily winning a trial. Inside speed and the jockey/trainer combo connected well in dirt sprints last season. He may not be much of a price, but…
#4 Gold Comet is around 20-1 on the overnight odds. Dam hasn’t dropped much other than one special sib known as Invasor, and this one is also by Exchange Rate, so there were no surprises to see him run well in a dirt trial towards the end of last season, albeit in very slow time. Exotics interest at that price.

Race 2:
Another race of poor quality, with the two early favs a combined 1/46 lifetime. Let’s go with #6 Moon Peaks, who has won a trial impressively up at the China training facility since the barn change.

Race 3:
Currently in the black, so can take a stab here with #10 Well Dragon. Wasn’t disgraced last time out in his dirt debut, and is eligible to improve having done a lot of work in the off-season.

Race 4:
#3 Winwin Thirtythree was not disgraced in his Class 4 runs and now drops back to Class 5, where he hasn’t missed the board in four tries over the course and distance (in this class). Trialled nicely for this and has a great chance to get his first lifetime win.
I’ve been following #7 Galaxy Racer for a while now, and he’s worth including in the exotics.

Race 7:
#6 Czarson looked very good winning a recent trial on this surface for the new barn. G2 placed runner in Australia has had excuses in his two HK starts: debut was over 1000m on a yielding track, and last time raced quite keenly after arriving to the gates with blood in his mouth.

PLAYS:
R1 WP 8
R1 EX 8/3,4
R2 WP 6
R3 WP 10
R4 WP 3
R4 EX 3,7/3,7
R7 WP 6

Good luck!

[Kitan]

Originally Posted by Kitan

PLAYS:
R1 WP 8 8th @ 5-1 (never got close to the lead)
R1 EX 8/3,4
R2 WP 6 last @ 9-1 (reared badly at start)
R3 WP 10 5th @ 41-1
R4 WP 3 1st @ 5-1 ($12.00, $3.90)
R4 EX 3,7/3,7
R7 WP 6 2nd @ 14-1 ($7.60)

Good luck!

Not much luck early but nearly broke even...

Running total (based on minimum denomination)
Bet: $68
Return: $115.30
Total: +$47.30 (made a basic error in the last calculation)

[Kasept]

Chalkfest last night, eh K? You found the only price. Big meeting for Karis Teetan.

[Kitan]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Chalkfest last night, eh K? You found the only price. Big meeting for Karis Teetan.

There was one 17-1 winner mid-card, but overall a pretty chalky card by HK standards. Silly of me not to have the R7 tri with my longshot sandwiched between the two faves

Teetan is a good rider, as are many other in the colony, but that's the problem in HK...very rarely do Moreira and Purton ride runners at double digit odds. I'm sure some of the other riders would be competitive for the jockey's title with the same kind of opportunities.

[Kitan]

Few midweek Happy Valley plays...

Race 2:
#9 Le Terroir has a very good record over the course and distance. Had been racing further back in the field towards the end of last season, but his best performances came when he was stalking or on the lead, and can get a similar trip if he wants from an inside post in a race seemingly void of much early speed. Easily won his debut last season off a similar rating, so he has good fresh form.

Race 3:
I’m really struggling to see how #5 The One is 10-1 on overnight odds. Other than last time out where he had a really tough trip, he has finished 7th, 3rd, 5th, 4th, and 6th over the course and distance, all in Class 4. Drops into Class 5 for the first time and draws well in gate 3.

I was interested in playing #9 Spicy Really last time at a monster price, but he was quite washy in the paddock. His form prior to that was a bit dirtied up, and he looks to be moving OK in his work. Worth using underneath.

Interesting that the early fav here (#4) has never been under 122-1 and has absolutely no form whatsoever. May have improved during the off-season in the new barn and did win his last trial, but he was pushed out to do so. Not for me at those odds, which are also probably lower due to the Purton factor.

Race 8:
The speed in here will be full throttle and #7 Heart Conquered should get a nice stalking trip from the inside draw. He put in a decent performance on the opening day of the season, and I had noted that he might need the start anyways.

PLAYS:
R2 WP 9
R3 WP 5, P 9
R3 EX 5,9/5,9
R8 WP 7

Good luck!

[Kitan]

Originally Posted by Kitan

PLAYS:
R2 WP 9 4th @ 5-2 (got smacked down from 5-1 late)
R3 WP 5, P 9 9th @ 7-1; 7th @ 31-1
R3 EX 5,9/5,9
R8 WP 7 3rd @ 7-1 ($5.10)

Good luck!

Not much doing today...

Running total (based on minimum denomination)
Bet: $84
Return: $120.40
Total: +$36.40 (made a basic error in the last calculation)

[Kitan]

Race 2:
#3 Skyey Supreme was defeated by #1 when both were last seen, but this one is 8lbs better off, moves from post 14 to the rail, and can potentially be the controlling speed. 3-1 on the overnight odds, and while you won’t see me playing many at those prices in this thread, I think that’s decent value in a race like this.

Race 5:
#14 For Fun’s Sake is the first runner to show up twice in this thread. I didn’t think he ran that poorly in his first run this season, and the Sha Tin 1200m looks more suitable than the HV 1000m. Might be getting primed for his next run third off the layoff, but have to take a chance with him again because the race is weak in depth and he won’t be this kind of price next time regardless of how he performs as he’ll be down into Class 5 if he runs poorly.

#6 Fortune Master is the most likely winner for me, though. Tough trip on debut when taking some money but ran a strong 4th two weeks ago. Draws the inside post here, but hard to play him to win at around 4-1 when he was 81-1 last time.

#2 is the likely fav but hasn’t run in six months and likely to get a wide trip without cover or get further back than he has been to date…

Race 6:
#1 Classic Posh doesn’t have to get as far back as he did when last seen, and not sure anything else in here would have gotten closer than he did to the winner that day.

Race 9:
#9 Ping Hai Bravo: Excuse two back when beaten as the odds-on fav (blood in trachea) and was the only one to make up ground last time in slick closing sectionals. Looks to get a good trip from gate four.

#1 Temple of Heaven: Closed well in his HK debut. Should benefit from the off-season and can improve.

#4 Winning Dreamer: One of the promising horses to follow this season and is currently around even money on the board. I think he’s fast enough to get over and sit outside the leader, but hard to know exactly what kind of trip he’ll get from post 12.

PLAYS:
R2 WIN 3
R5 WP 14
R5 EX 6,14/6,14
R6 WP 1
R9 WP 9
R9 EX 9/1,4
R9 TRI BOX 1,4,9

Good luck!

[Kitan]

Originally Posted by Kitan

PLAYS:
R2 WIN 3 1st @ 3-2 ($5.50)
R5 WP 14 8th @ 80-1
R5 EX 6,14/6,14
R6 WP 1 2nd @ 7-1 ($3.90)
R9 WP 9 3rd @ 6-1 ($3.40)
R9 EX 9/1,4
R9 TRI BOX 1,4,9

Running total (based on minimum denomination)
Bet: $108
Return: $133.20
Total: +$25.20

[gamblin4ever]

Originally Posted by Kitan

Running total (based on minimum denomination)
Bet: $108
Return: $133.20
Total: +$25.20

Nice picks yesterday.
Moreira was dominant w/ 6 wins on the card.