Derby Trail Forums

Go Back   Derby Trail Forums > Breeders' Cup Archive
Register FAQ Members List Calendar Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 11-03-2018, 06:55 AM
Kasept's Avatar
Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 35,299
Default

CD Breeders' Cup Classic (G1): Accelerate 105 (Lookin At Lucky) J. Sadler/J. Rosario
CD Breeders' Cup Turf(G1): Enable-GB 114 (Nathaniel-IRE) J. Gosden/L. Dettori
CD Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1): Roy H 111 (More Than Ready) P. Miller/P. Lopez
CD Breeders' Cup Distaff (G1): Monomoy Girl 96 (Tapizar) B. Cox/F. Geroux
CD Breeders' Cup Mile (G1): Expert Eye-GB 101 (Acclamation-GB) S. Stoute/L. Dettori
CD Breeders' Cup F&M Turf (G1): Sistercharlie-IRE 103 (Myboycharlie-IRE) C. Brown/J. Velazquez
CD Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (G1): Stormy Liberal 119 (Stormy Atlantic) P. Miller/D. Van Dyke
CD Breeders' Cup F&M Sprint (G1): Shamrock Rose 92 (First Dude) M. Casse/I. Ortiz
CD Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (G1): City of Light 110 (Quality Road) M. McCarthy/J. Castellano
CD Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1): Jaywalk 94 (Cross Traffic) J. Servis/J. Rosario
CD Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1): Game Winner 93 (Candy Ride-ARG) B. Baffert/J. Rosario
CD Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint: Bulletin 90 (City Zip) T. Pletcher/J. Castellano
CD Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) Newspaperofrecord-IRE 96 Lope de Vega (IRE) C. Brown/I. Ortiz
CD Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (G1): Line of Duty-IRE 83 (Galileo-IRE) C. Appleby/W. Buick

CD Marathon S. (G2): Rocketry 98 (Hard Spun) J. Jerkens/J. Rosario
CD Chilukki S (G2): Divine Miss Grey 90 (Divine Park) D. Gargan/M. Franco
CD Cherokee Run S: Audible 99 (Into Mischief) T. Pletcher/J. Castellano
CD Street Sense S: Improbable 93 (City Zip) B. Baffert/D. Van Dyke
CD Dream Supreme S: Vertical Oak 92 (Giant Oak) S. Asmussen/R. Santana
CD Bet on Sunshine S: Uno Mas Modelo 102 (Macho Uno) A. Quartarolo/A. Jimenez
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. -- Joseph Conrad

Last edited by Kasept : 11-05-2018 at 05:42 AM.
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 11-04-2018, 12:11 AM
RHT2004 RHT2004 is offline
Atlantic City Race Course
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 4,620
Default

What a bad distaff. Wish Elate or Unbridled Forever ran.
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 11-04-2018, 06:15 AM
cakes44's Avatar
cakes44 cakes44 is offline
Oaklawn
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 2,350
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by RHT2004 View Post
What a bad distaff. Wish Elate or Unbridled Forever ran.
I wish Abel Tasman ran.
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 11-04-2018, 07:27 AM
Kasept's Avatar
Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 35,299
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by cakes44 View Post
I wish Abel Tasman ran.
I laughed.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. -- Joseph Conrad
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 11-04-2018, 08:56 AM
freddymo freddymo is offline
Hialeah Park
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 6,363
Default

119 for the turf sprint is an interesting discussion to undertake. I would love to listen to various agencies on their interpretation and analysis of the assigned figure.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 11-04-2018, 11:02 AM
LITF LITF is offline
Sunshine Park
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 98
Default

Has there been a lower number for a Classic winner?
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 11-04-2018, 11:10 AM
cakes44's Avatar
cakes44 cakes44 is offline
Oaklawn
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 2,350
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by LITF View Post
Has there been a lower number for a Classic winner?
Unlikely, unless it was Drosselmeyer or a Polytrack race. It definitely didnít look like much more than a 105, thatís for sure.
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 11-04-2018, 11:33 AM
Kasept's Avatar
Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 35,299
Default

Drosselmeyer 104

BEYER PAR POST: http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/sho...26#post1118226
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. -- Joseph Conrad
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 11-04-2018, 11:34 AM
Kasept's Avatar
Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 35,299
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by freddymo View Post
119 for the turf sprint is an interesting discussion to undertake. I would love to listen to various agencies on their interpretation and analysis of the assigned figure.
You'll hear Andy Beyer on ATR tomorrow.. but you knew that already.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. -- Joseph Conrad
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 11-04-2018, 07:39 PM
RHT2004 RHT2004 is offline
Atlantic City Race Course
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 4,620
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by cakes44 View Post
I wish Abel Tasman ran.
Its true though. You dont want Bob to have to rebound. Once they go bad its over.
Reply With Quote
  #11  
Old 11-05-2018, 05:24 AM
Kasept's Avatar
Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 35,299
Default

SA Twilight Derby (G2): River Boyne-IRE 92 (Dandy Man-IRE) J. Mullins/F. Prat
SA Goldikova S (G2): Vasilika 102 (Skipshot) J. Hollendorfer/F. Prat
SA Golden State Juvenile Fillies S: Give Me a Hint 68 (Merit Man) R. Hess/E. Roman
SA Lure S: Kencumin-FR 97 (Kendargent-FR) P. Eurton/B. Blanc
SA Golden State Juvenile S: Cruel Intention 90 (Smiling Tiger) B. Baffert/E. Roman
SA Senator Ken Maddy S (G3): Storm the Hill 97 (Get Stormy) P. D'Amato/R. Bejarano

AQU Bold Ruler H (G3): No Dozing 107 (Union Rags) A. Delacour/D. Centeno
AQU Tempted S (G3): Oxy Lady 96 (Oxbow) J. Sisterson/D. Cannon
AQU Turnback the Alarm H (G3): Teresa Z 95 (Smart Strike) A. Margotta/T. McCarthy
AQU Nashua S (G3): Vekoma 99 (Candy Ride-ARG) G. Weaver/M. Franco
AQU Awad S: Empire of War 80 (Declaration of War) T. Pletcher/M. Franco

RP Clever Trevor S: Long Range Toddy 77 (Take Charge Indy) S. Asmussen/R. Eramia

WO Frost King S: My Silencer 72 (Silent Name-JPN) W. Tharrenos/L. Contreras
WO Autumn S (G2): Mr Havercamp 98 (Court Vision) C. Day Phillips/E. Da Silva
WO Maple Leaf S (G3): A. A. Azula's Arch 86 (Arch) K. Attard/O. Moreno
WO Princess Elizabeth S: Bold Script - (Speightstown) S. Simon/G. Boulanger

TUP ATBA Fall Sales Futurity: Loud N Proud - (Margie's Wildcat) K. Eikleberry/R. Eikleberry
TUP ATBA Fall Sales Futurity: Senoradiablo - (Flat Out) M. Ortiz/D. Velazquez

GPW Cellars Shiraz S: Hogans Holiday 81 (The Factor) M. Vitali/L. Reyes
GPW Showing Up S: Silent Citizen 86 (Hat Trick-JPN) E. Loza/M. Cruz

MVR Cardinal H: Altissimo 99 (Noble Causeway) R. Zielinski/C. Pilares
MVR Ohio Debutante H: Leona's Reward 69 (Parents' Reward) T. Hamm/L. Colon

CT West Virginia Futurity: Scottish Man 53 (Charitable Man) J. Casey/J. Montano

ZIA Rocky Gulch NM Classic Cup Ch. S: Thunder Dome - (Dome) D. Barton /A. Juarez
ZIA NM Classic Cup Sprint Ch. S: D E Lover - (So Long Birdie) T. Sedillo/S. Laviolette
ZIA Peppers Pride NM Classic Ch. F&M S: Movin On - (Indian Firewater) J. Marr/T. Hebert
ZIA NM Classic Cup Lassie Ch. S: Roll On Matilda - (Roll Hennessy Roll) T. Fincher/ R. Chirinos
ZIA NM Classic Cup Juvenile Ch. S: Diabolical Ruler - (Diabolical) H. Dominguez /A. Juarez
ZIA NM Classic Cup Distaff Sprint Ch. S: Bryn's Fancy Pants - (Southwestern Heat) T. Fincher/ R. Chirinos
ZIA NM Classic Cup Derby Ch. S: Blazing Navarone - (Song of Navarone) H. Dominguez /R. Eikleberry
ZIA NM Classic Cup Oaks Ch. S: Susans Violette - (Stellar Rain) B. Woolley/E. Gomez
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. -- Joseph Conrad

Last edited by Kasept : 11-05-2018 at 10:29 AM.
Reply With Quote
  #12  
Old 11-05-2018, 07:46 AM
Dunbar's Avatar
Dunbar Dunbar is offline
The Curragh
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 2,812
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by RHT2004 View Post
What a bad distaff. Wish Elate or Unbridled Forever ran.
Lowest BSF ever for a Distaff.
__________________
Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar
photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
Reply With Quote
  #13  
Old 11-05-2018, 10:20 AM
bare it all's Avatar
bare it all bare it all is offline
Louisiana Downs
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 330
Default

What a weird Breeders Cup Saturday. So many just didn't seem to really run and the majority of the winners didn't even have career best or peak performances.
Reply With Quote
  #14  
Old 11-05-2018, 11:49 AM
freddymo freddymo is offline
Hialeah Park
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 6,363
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept View Post
You'll hear Andy Beyer on ATR tomorrow.. but you knew that already.
I thought Andy was great today as always

Stormy Liberal and World of Trouble ran the highest turf Beyer figs of all time. They both got excellent, like six seven lengths better in a few weeks. Both had raced a myriad of times at the distance or similar both had established credible baselines to their ability both are 6/7 lengths faster than they ever have been becoming the fastest turf sprinters in the Beyers Era.
Reply With Quote
  #15  
Old 11-05-2018, 02:41 PM
cakes44's Avatar
cakes44 cakes44 is offline
Oaklawn
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 2,350
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by freddymo View Post
I thought Andy was great today as always

Stormy Liberal and World of Trouble ran the highest turf Beyer figs of all time. They both got excellent, like six seven lengths better in a few weeks. Both had raced a myriad of times at the distance or similar both had established credible baselines to their ability both are 6/7 lengths faster than they ever have been becoming the fastest turf sprinters in the Beyers Era.
Not sure you are wrong.
Reply With Quote
  #16  
Old 11-05-2018, 05:18 PM
freddymo freddymo is offline
Hialeah Park
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 6,363
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by cakes44 View Post
Not sure you are wrong.
I am not an expert I have not become nor will ever be an expert fig maker, and indeed, no disrespect to Beyer is implied. I accept Andy's thoughts and the conclusions his experience leads him too. It was a fantastic effort by both horses. Would I use 119/118 as an accurate measure of the race when handicapping the next race either of these showed up in again? Not a chance.
Reply With Quote
  #17  
Old 11-06-2018, 06:46 AM
cakes44's Avatar
cakes44 cakes44 is offline
Oaklawn
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 2,350
Default

What are you going to do though, say that two horses ran out of their minds(plausible), or that basically all of the other 12 ran as poorly as they could have? With this goofy-run race, it really doesn't seem like there can be an in-between.
Reply With Quote
  #18  
Old 11-06-2018, 07:40 AM
freddymo freddymo is offline
Hialeah Park
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 6,363
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by cakes44 View Post
What are you going to do though, say that two horses ran out of their minds(plausible), or that basically all of the other 12 ran as poorly as they could have? With this goofy-run race, it really doesn't seem like there can be an in-between.
I am not purporting Beyer is wrong because he isn't. Beyer methodology is rooted in decades of experience he isn't wrong he followed his process and derived a figure that works for him. That said it's his process and his figures can be changed when and if they prove to be misleading. At this point, this is Beyers best interpretation of the race. We will see. Lots of people make figures some for the public others for themselves.

To me, it's not about calling out the guy who made the figure and preaching why it's right or wrong it's about understanding their interpretation of the race and why they used the figure they did. I can disagree with an interpretation; I can't rationally suggest the figure is wrong with a guy who is doing it 50 years and is a legend.
Reply With Quote
Reply


Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 11:44 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.