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  #1  
Old 05-02-2021, 08:32 AM
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Kasept Kasept is offline
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Default Weekend Stakes Beyers: Medina Spirit 102; Malathaat 95

CD Kentucky Derby (G1): Medina Spirit 102 (Protonico) B. Baffert/J. Velazquez
CD Turf Classic S (G1): DH-Domestic Spending 100 (Kingman-GB) C. Brown/F. Prat
CD Turf Classic S (G1): DH-Colonel Liam 100 (Liam's Map) T. Pletcher/I. Ortiz
CD Churchill Downs S. (G1): Flagstaff 95 (Speightstown) J. Sadler/L. Saez
CD Derby City Distaff S. (G1): Gamine 99 (Into Mischief) B. Baffert/J. Velazquez
CD Pat Day Mile S. (G2): Jackie's Warrior 91 (Maclean's Music) S. Asmussen/J. Rosario
CD American Turf S. (G2): Du Jour 89 (Temple City) B. Baffert/F. Prat
CD Distaff Turf Mile S (G2): Blowout-GB 95 (Dansili-GB) C. Brown/F. Prat

CD Kentucky Oaks (G1): Malathaat 95 Curlin T. Pletcher/J. Velazquez
CD La Troienne S. (G1): Shedaresthedevil 92 Daredevil B. Cox/F. Geroux
CD Alysheba S. (G2): Maxfield 105 Street Sense B. Walsh/J. Ortiz
CD Eight Belles S. (G2): Obligatory 93 Curlin W. Mott/J. Ortiz
CD Edgewood S. (G2): Gift List-GB 88 Bated Breath (GB) B. Lynch/J. Castellano
CD Twin Spires Turf Sprint S. (G2): Fast Boat 98 City Zip J. Sharp/I. Ortiz
CD Unbridled Sidney S: Into Mystic 100 Into Mischief B. Walsh/F. Geroux
CD Opening Verse S: Set Piece-GB 97 Dansili (GB) B. Cox/F. Geroux
CD Kentucky Juvenile S: Averly Jane 63 Midshipman W. Ward/T. Gaffalione
CD Isaac Murphy Marathon S: Lone Rock 94 Majestic Warrior R. Diodoro/R. Vazquez

CD OC/N1X (9f): Masqueparade 97 (Upstart) A. Stall/M. Mena
CD OC/N1X (6.5f): Supremacy 88 (Constitution) B. Cox/F. Geroux
CD OC/N2X (1m-T): First Premio 93 (Pure Prize) M. Casse/U. Rispoli
CD ALW/N1X (1m): Ram 81 (American Pharoah) D. Lukas/I. Ortiz
CD 3+ MSW (1m): Koolhaus 86 (Nyquist) B. Cox/F. Geroux
CD 3+ MSW (6f): Mr Sippi 86 (Runhappy) J. Sharp/I. Ortiz
CD 3+ MSW-F (1m-T): Alydiva 76 (Quality Road) M. Casse/T. Gaffalione

BEL Westchester S (G3): Dr Post 103 (Quality Road) T. Pletcher/M. Franco
BEL Sheepshead Bay S (G2): Magic Attitude-GB 97 (Galileo-IRE) A. Delacour/T. McCarthy
BEL Fort Marcy S (G2): Tribhuvan-FR 105 (Toronado-IRE) C. Brown/E. Cancel
BEL Ruffian S (G2): Vault 88 (Jump Start) B. Cox/J. Rosario
BEL License Fee S: She's My Type-FR 94 (Dunkerque-FR) C. Clement/H. Diaz
BEL Flat Out S: Musical Heart 100 (Maclean's Music) R. Atras/T. McCarthy

SA Senorita S (G3): Madone 78 (Vancouver-AUS) S. Callaghan/J. Hernandez
SA Angels Flight S: Astute 88 (Speightstown) R. Mandella/J. Hernandez

MID Temple Gwathmey Hurdle H (G2): Snap Decision N/A (Hard Spun) J. Fisher/G. Watters

OP Oaklawn S: Fulsome 87 (Into Mischief) B. Cox/M. Garcia
OP AR Breeders' Ch. S: Tempt Fate 84 (Hamazing Destiny) C. Deville/C. Torres

GP Big Drama S: Well Defined 96 (With Distinction) K. O'Connell/E. Jaramillo
GP Honey Ryder S: Con Lima 88 (Commissioner) T. Pletcher/P. Lopez
GP Golden Beach H: Choose Joy (Munnings) S. Dwoskin/M. Vasquez

CT Confucius Say S: V. I. P. Ticket - (Windsor Castle) J. O'Dwyer/G. Almodovar
CT Its Binn Too Long S: Door Buster - (Speightster) O. Figgins/D. Araujo

TDN Dr. T.F. Classen Memorial S: Dancin' Rosie - (Vaquero) J. Radosevich/J. Bracho

PRX Page McKenney H: Wait for It 99 (Uptowncharlybrown) E. Coletti/A. Nunez
PRX Unique Bella S: Chub Wagon 93 (Hey Chub) G. Preciado/J. Torres
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Last edited by Kasept : 05-03-2021 at 05:00 AM.
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  #2  
Old 05-02-2021, 09:52 AM
freddymo freddymo is offline
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Jackie's Warrior ran the best 91 I have ever watched
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  #3  
Old 05-02-2021, 11:06 AM
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RolloTomasi RolloTomasi is offline
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Originally Posted by freddymo View Post
Jackie's Warrior ran the best 91 I have ever watched
Yeah, it was the best 14-second final furlong I ever watched.

Bet Highly Motivated with both fists in the Woody Stephens.
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  #4  
Old 05-02-2021, 12:18 PM
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Alabama Stakes Alabama Stakes is offline
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Masqueparade might have won the Derby if he was in it
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  #5  
Old 05-02-2021, 12:24 PM
Dahoss Dahoss is offline
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Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes View Post
Masqueparade might have won the Derby if he was in it
No he wouldnít have.
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  #6  
Old 05-02-2021, 12:31 PM
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RolloTomasi RolloTomasi is offline
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Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes View Post
Masqueparade might have won the Derby if he was in it
What about Koolhaus in the Pat Day Mile or were you thinking more Supremacy?
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  #7  
Old 05-03-2021, 09:29 AM
freddymo freddymo is offline
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Originally Posted by RolloTomasi View Post
Yeah, it was the best 14-second final furlong I ever watched.

Bet Highly Motivated with both fists in the Woody Stephens.
And nobody closed so there is that
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  #8  
Old 05-03-2021, 09:59 AM
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RolloTomasi RolloTomasi is offline
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Originally Posted by freddymo View Post
And nobody closed so there is that
Have a heart, Freddy...and read the PPs.

It was a field loaded with a bunch of unproven speed-types...and a multiple Grade 1 winner. There were only 2 closers in the race to begin with. And what closers they were.

Sittin On Go hadn't passed a single horse in the stretch since September of last year and Defunded was unfortunately ridden by Irad Ortiz who must have taken advice in the jock's room from the horse's last rider, Mike Smith.
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Old 05-03-2021, 05:35 PM
freddymo freddymo is offline
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Originally Posted by RolloTomasi View Post
Have a heart, Freddy...and read the PPs.

It was a field loaded with a bunch of unproven speed-types...and a multiple Grade 1 winner. There were only 2 closers in the race to begin with. And what closers they were.

Sittin On Go hadn't passed a single horse in the stretch since September of last year and Defunded was unfortunately ridden by Irad Ortiz who must have taken advice in the jock's room from the horse's last rider, Mike Smith.
Some reasonably good stock and NONE took a step forward, yet all were highly thought of taking a shot in a stake. Yes, I realize owners and trainers are often wrong. Chad said, "the race came up tough," so he took a shot with another Ok horse on turf in a stake vs. running in the race. I find it hard to believe only one other horse in that race could run an 80 BSF. It also suggests that while his 6f speed has not been dulled by trying to stretch him out, JW now is 10pts slower than his Champagne in his 3rd start as a 3yr old on a cutback. I understand the fig as it relates to the mdn SPL winner earlier on the card. It's just an interesting discussion, it's not meant to criticize the people that used 91 to describe the race.
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  #10  
Old 05-03-2021, 06:54 PM
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Originally Posted by freddymo View Post
Some reasonably good stock and NONE took a step forward, yet all were highly thought of taking a shot in a stake. Yes, I realize owners and trainers are often wrong. Chad said, "the race came up tough," so he took a shot with another Ok horse on turf in a stake vs. running in the race. I find it hard to believe only one other horse in that race could run an 80 BSF. It also suggests that while his 6f speed has not been dulled by trying to stretch him out, JW now is 10pts slower than his Champagne in his 3rd start as a 3yr old on a cutback. I understand the fig as it relates to the mdn SPL winner earlier on the card. It's just an interesting discussion, it's not meant to criticize the people that used 91 to describe the race.
All that "good stock" had already blown their collective wads well before the race...including Jackie's Warrior.

If Chad Brown said the race was tough my guess is he was more worried about the amount of speed lining up and not any particular horse or horses.

Who was supposed to "step up" exactly?

Defunded? He was supposed to get a perfect setup. In that sense, he wouldn't have needed to improve to capitalize; but the point is moot because he was given a moronic ride. Beyond that, he's a horse with a modest pedigree, that had to have an 8-month layoff after his debut, was gelded in the interim (something you rarely see in Baffert's barn), and then was stupidly tossed into the Santa Anita Derby off a maiden sprint win presumably because Life is Good got hurt and Baffert's ego was bruised (see his exploits last year ruining the early careers of Uncle Chuck and Cezanne). Maybe he'll have enough left to win the Los Alamitos Derby before running off the board in the Haskell.

Prevalence? Why was he in that race? He just got brow beat in the Wood Memorial when foolishly rushed into the Derby picture after a facile (and slow) maiden sprint win. Sad part is, he's by Medgalia d'Oro, who doesn't typically produce speedy one-turn horses, so instead of allowing him to progress steadily to two-turn races his trainer has fried him and pretty much slammed the door shut on his 3yo year. He can't handle a hot pace, he can't sit back and make one run, and he probably has no bottom (or heart) to go a route any time soon. Time to back off and start from scratch. Maybe he can be next year's Maxfield. I doubt it. Future looks bright as a Dubai Carnival race filler.

Starrininmydreams and Sittin On Go? Typical fodder from the Stewart and Romans barns...the #1 source for also-rans for all Stakes Coordinators across the country. I wouldn't be surprised if one of them tries to run back in the Preakness...

Dreamer's Disease? Well, with an apt name like that I guess you can't blame the connections (I'm still going to). Why the hell would you bring a horse with that kind of early speed back in a race like this off that disastrous NY-bred baby race right on the heels of his gut-busting effort in the BC? He and Excellent Timing could have had a nice rivalry beginning with the Gold Fever and segueing into the NY-bred Mike Lee. Now they'll have to use the latter just to get back on the right track.

Whiskey Double? He was outsprinted by O Besos earlier in the year. Next..

Dream Shake? Not sure how much more punishment this horse can take. Somehow defeating Bezos and Fenway in a maiden sprint made this horse a Derby prospect. Running mediocre thirds in weak CA fields somehow still punched his ticket to Louisville instead of a more logical step, like the 7-furlong sure-to-be-5-horse field Laz Barrera Stakes at Santa Anita or I don't know...a first condition allowance race? To be fair, the latter don't fill in CA unless it's for 3yos and up, so one way or the other he was probably going to need to ship out-of-state. His runner-up effort here is probably only going to emboldened his connections further, and we'll probably see him next in the Woody Stephens. I guess on the bright side, we didn't have to watch him run in the Kentucky Derby (unless you were in Vegas planning to bet a reverse last place finish exacta box with Soup and Sandwich)...

Noble Reflection? This has to be the worst training job of the bunch. The horse has an 8-month layoff following a 3rd place finish in a pretty productive maiden 2yo race, comes back with a sharp score in the comeback sprinting in March and guess what? You guessed it...Derby Prospect! Forget a first condition allowance sprint. Forget a first condition allowance route. Why not do both at the same time? We'll route him, but we'll pretend like we're in a sprint race. This is the only deranged logic can explain what the F they were doing with him in the Lexington setting a :45 opening half. And for the life of me, I cannot begin to imagine how this race was still on their radar after the absolute (and predictable) meltdown the horse suffered. The most unforgivable part of this whole affair is that they nearly paved the way for King Fury to get into the Kentucky Derby...
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Old 05-03-2021, 07:26 PM
freddymo freddymo is offline
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Originally Posted by RolloTomasi View Post
All that "good stock" had already blown their collective wads well before the race...including Jackie's Warrior.

If Chad Brown said the race was tough, my guess is he was more worried about the amount of speed lining up and not any particular horse or horses.

Who was supposed to "step up" exactly?

Defunded? He was supposed to get a perfect setup. In that sense, he wouldn't have needed to improve to capitalize; but the point is moot because he was given a moronic ride. Beyond that, he's a horse with a modest pedigree that had to have an 8-month layoff after his debut, was gelded in the interim (something you rarely see in Baffert's barn), and then was stupidly tossed into the Santa Anita Derby off a maiden sprint win presumably because Life is Good got hurt. Baffert's ego was bruised (see his exploits last year, ruining Uncle Chuck and Cezanne). Maybe he'll have enough left to win the Los Alamitos Derby before running off the board in the Haskell.

Prevalence? Why was he in that race? He just got browbeat in the Wood Memorial when foolishly rushed into the Derby picture after a facile (and slow) maiden sprint win. The sad part is, he's by Medaglia d'Oro, who doesn't typically produce speedy one-turn horses, so instead of allowing him to progress steadily to two-turn races, his trainer has fried him and pretty much slammed the door shut on his 3yo year. He can't handle a hot pace, he can't sit back and make one run, and he probably has no bottom (or heart) to go a route any time soon. Time to back off and start from scratch. Maybe he can be next year's Maxfield. I doubt it. Future looks bright as a Dubai Carnival race filler.

Starrininmydreams and Sittin On Go? Typical fodder from the Stewart and Romans barns...the #1 source for also-rans for all Stakes Coordinators across the country. I wouldn't be surprised if one of them tries to run back in the Preakness...

Dreamer's Disease? Well, with an apt name like that, I guess you can't blame the connections (I'm still going to). Why the hell would you bring a horse with that kind of early speed back in a race like this off that disastrous NY-bred baby race right on the heels of his gut-busting effort in the BC? He and Excellent Timing could have had a nice rivalry beginning with the Gold Fever and segueing into the NY-bred Mike Lee. Now they'll have to use the latter to get back on the right track.

Whiskey Double? He was outsprinted by O Besos earlier in the year. Next.

Dream Shake? Not sure how much more punishment this horse can take. Somehow defeating Bezos and Fenway in a maiden sprint made this horse a Derby prospect. Running mediocre thirds in weak CA fields somehow still punched his ticket to Louisville instead of a more logical step, like the 7-furlong sure-to-be-5-horse field Laz Barrera Stakes at Santa Anita or I don't know...a first condition allowance race? The latter doesn't fill in CA unless it's for 3yos and up, so one way or the other, he was probably going to need to ship out of state. His runner-up effort here will probably only embolden his connections further, and we'll probably see him next in the Woody Stephens. I guess on the bright side. We didn't have to watch him run in the Kentucky Derby (unless you were in Vegas planning to bet a reverse the last-place finish exacta box with Soup and Sandwich)...

Noble Reflection? This has to be the worst training job of the bunch. The horse has an 8-month layoff following a 3rd place finish in a pretty productive maiden 2yo race, comes back with a sharp score in the comeback sprinting in March, and guess what? You guessed it...Derby Prospect! Forget a first condition allowance sprint. Forget a first condition allowance route. Why not do both at the same time? We'll route him, but we'll pretend like we're in a sprint race. This is the only deranged logic that can explain what the F they were doing with him in the Lexington setting a:45 opening half. And for the life of me, I cannot begin to imagine how this race was still on their radar after the absolute (and predictable) meltdown the horse suffered. The most unforgivable part of this whole affair is that they nearly paved the way for King Fury to get into the Kentucky Derby...
We could accurately reverse engineer racing decisions from trainers that make bad decisions every day. You had 10 reasonably good animals that didn't run an 80 BSF that is a tough pill to swallow in the Pat Day Stakes on the first Saturday in May at CD. This wasn't a Feb 12th field in an NW1 Aqueduct which will have at least 3 horses will run an 80 fig.
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  #12  
Old 05-03-2021, 07:49 PM
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RolloTomasi RolloTomasi is offline
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Originally Posted by freddymo View Post
We could accurately reverse engineer racing decisions from trainers that make bad decisions every day. You had 10 reasonably good animals that didn't run an 80 BSF that is a tough pill to swallow in the Pat Day Stakes on the first Saturday in May at CD. This wasn't a Feb 12th field in an NW1 Aqueduct which will have at least 3 horses will run an 80 fig.
Just to be clear, you saw the fractions of the race, right?

And you are also aware that every single 2021 route start (and nearly every sprint start, too, actually) from every single horse in the race save for Prevalence's tailored team workout second time out resulted in a running line in which ground (i.e., multiple lengths) was lost in the stretch? (This was all on paper beforehand, by the way...)

I thought I covered most of the field, but which specific horse did you think was: (1) not in declining form or (2) had shown the ability to handle further than 7f or (3) had shown the ability to survive a fast pace or (4) shown the ability to close in a route?

Was I supposed to analyze the scratched horse?
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Old 05-03-2021, 09:30 PM
blackthroatedwind blackthroatedwind is offline
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I donít know why itís so hard to understand that Beyer figs are final time Figs, Freddy, and that horses that set excruciating paces will always run final time figures lower than the actual performance they gave. There was zero chance Jackieís Warrior was going to get a big final time fig given that pace. He and the runner up ran huge. The Beyer fig was never going to tell that story. I honestly cannot understand why you keep harping on this.

Itís the opposite of raising figs because super slow fractions make fast final times impossible, something you see far more frequently in turf races.
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Old 05-03-2021, 10:16 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RolloTomasi View Post
All that "good stock" had already blown their collective wads well before the race...including Jackie's Warrior.

If Chad Brown said the race was tough my guess is he was more worried about the amount of speed lining up and not any particular horse or horses.

Who was supposed to "step up" exactly?

Defunded? He was supposed to get a perfect setup. In that sense, he wouldn't have needed to improve to capitalize; but the point is moot because he was given a moronic ride. Beyond that, he's a horse with a modest pedigree, that had to have an 8-month layoff after his debut, was gelded in the interim (something you rarely see in Baffert's barn), and then was stupidly tossed into the Santa Anita Derby off a maiden sprint win presumably because Life is Good got hurt and Baffert's ego was bruised (see his exploits last year ruining the early careers of Uncle Chuck and Cezanne). Maybe he'll have enough left to win the Los Alamitos Derby before running off the board in the Haskell.

Prevalence? Why was he in that race? He just got brow beat in the Wood Memorial when foolishly rushed into the Derby picture after a facile (and slow) maiden sprint win. Sad part is, he's by Medgalia d'Oro, who doesn't typically produce speedy one-turn horses, so instead of allowing him to progress steadily to two-turn races his trainer has fried him and pretty much slammed the door shut on his 3yo year. He can't handle a hot pace, he can't sit back and make one run, and he probably has no bottom (or heart) to go a route any time soon. Time to back off and start from scratch. Maybe he can be next year's Maxfield. I doubt it. Future looks bright as a Dubai Carnival race filler.

Starrininmydreams and Sittin On Go? Typical fodder from the Stewart and Romans barns...the #1 source for also-rans for all Stakes Coordinators across the country. I wouldn't be surprised if one of them tries to run back in the Preakness...

Dreamer's Disease? Well, with an apt name like that I guess you can't blame the connections (I'm still going to). Why the hell would you bring a horse with that kind of early speed back in a race like this off that disastrous NY-bred baby race right on the heels of his gut-busting effort in the BC? He and Excellent Timing could have had a nice rivalry beginning with the Gold Fever and segueing into the NY-bred Mike Lee. Now they'll have to use the latter just to get back on the right track.

Whiskey Double? He was outsprinted by O Besos earlier in the year. Next..

Dream Shake? Not sure how much more punishment this horse can take. Somehow defeating Bezos and Fenway in a maiden sprint made this horse a Derby prospect. Running mediocre thirds in weak CA fields somehow still punched his ticket to Louisville instead of a more logical step, like the 7-furlong sure-to-be-5-horse field Laz Barrera Stakes at Santa Anita or I don't know...a first condition allowance race? To be fair, the latter don't fill in CA unless it's for 3yos and up, so one way or the other he was probably going to need to ship out-of-state. His runner-up effort here is probably only going to emboldened his connections further, and we'll probably see him next in the Woody Stephens. I guess on the bright side, we didn't have to watch him run in the Kentucky Derby (unless you were in Vegas planning to bet a reverse last place finish exacta box with Soup and Sandwich)...

Noble Reflection? This has to be the worst training job of the bunch. The horse has an 8-month layoff following a 3rd place finish in a pretty productive maiden 2yo race, comes back with a sharp score in the comeback sprinting in March and guess what? You guessed it...Derby Prospect! Forget a first condition allowance sprint. Forget a first condition allowance route. Why not do both at the same time? We'll route him, but we'll pretend like we're in a sprint race. This is the only deranged logic can explain what the F they were doing with him in the Lexington setting a :45 opening half. And for the life of me, I cannot begin to imagine how this race was still on their radar after the absolute (and predictable) meltdown the horse suffered. The most unforgivable part of this whole affair is that they nearly paved the way for King Fury to get into the Kentucky Derby...
In regards to Dream Shake, I wanted to ask something. The horse came within a head of winning a $500k, grade two race at Churchill on Derby Day. What would that have done for his vaiue? In an era when we are lucky to get 10 starts out of them before they retire and each start is possibly their last, was it really that bad a move to try to strike while the proverbial iron was hot? If you're looking for the easiest way to build a career, I would agree with you that staying in California and running in an easy race like the Barrera would be a better move. But the horse was 7/2 in one of the top races of his division and earned $94k and a placing in a grade two. Would winning the Barrera really have been better for him? Hell, it's not crazy to think that the field he beat in his maiden might be tougher than what he'd face in the Barrera and then when they did ship him, wouldn't you be saying running third in weak California fields and then beating a weak field in a 5-horse Barrera? Personally, I feel like we got a better barometer of how good the horse is here than we would have had he stayed home and run in a much weaker race.
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  #15  
Old 05-03-2021, 11:23 PM
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RolloTomasi RolloTomasi is offline
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Originally Posted by King Glorious View Post
In regards to Dream Shake, I wanted to ask something. The horse came within a head of winning a $500k, grade two race at Churchill on Derby Day. What would that have done for his vaiue?
I'm not particularly worried about his value; I'm worried about his longevity because he appears to have talent.

To your point, I don't think it would have done anything more for his "value" that any other graded stakes would have. The Derby Trial is not an important race, never has been, and isn't now no matter how much they dress it up.

A cursory review of the winners tells you that. Between 1990 and 1995 it produced some nice horses (although Housebuster was already well established), but that was when it was not pigeon-holed as a 3yo sprint division race and not buried on the undercard of the Kentucky Derby.

Quote:
In an era when we are lucky to get 10 starts out of them before they retire and each start is possibly their last, was it really that bad a move to try to strike while the proverbial iron was hot?
Again, the Pat Day Mile is not an important race. You might have had a point if we were talking about him running in the Kentucky Derby, but then he would have been hopeless in that race anyways.

Also, the iron was not hot. He had done nothing beyond a sharp maiden score and his last 2 were completely underwhelming even though some people seem to think he had a strong chance in each of those races.

Quote:
If you're looking for the easiest way to build a career, I would agree with you that staying in California and running in an easy race like the Barrera would be a better move.
Again, not interested in "building a career" for some stallion advert. His connections should be trying to help the horse reach his full potential, which was probably considerable after his maiden score, but most likely has been decidedly compromised with this pipe dream campaigning. And now I wouldn't be surprised if he busted a gut in this second-tier race, when he could have gotten back on track with a score in the Barrera (if he was good enough), setting him up nicely for the Grade 1 Woody Stephens 3 weeks later.

Quote:
But the horse was 7/2 in one of the top races of his division and earned $94k and a placing in a grade two. Would winning the Barrera really have been better for him?
You'll have to explain to me how the Pat Day Mile is a top race. I understand it has a large purse but so do races at Delta Downs and Charlestown.

By the way, winning a graded stakes is better than placing in a graded stakes. And it's less taxing when you run out of your own stall against a small field. That's important when a horse's career has been delayed until 3 years of age and is lightly raced.

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Hell, it's not crazy to think that the field he beat in his maiden might be tougher than what he'd face in the Barrera and then when they did ship him, wouldn't you be saying running third in weak California fields and then beating a weak field in a 5-horse Barrera?
Failing to win a route races doesn't negate his chances cutting back to one-turn. And it wouldn't matter what my opinion was of him ahead of the Woody Stephens if he ended up winning it. I'd would just be wrong in that case (although to be clear, I'm not questioning the horse's talent, I'm questioning his management).

By the way, in a sensible world, Flightline would be in the Barrera, too, as well as a couple of prospects from Baffert's barn (Freedom Fighter, Triple Tap, Following Sea, Laurel River) and The Chosen Vron. I doubt it will come up weaker than his maiden race, which thus far has only produced Law Professor (another SA Derby also-ran) and Bezos (who I'm guessing we won't be seeing again for some time).

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Personally, I feel like we got a better barometer of how good the horse is here than we would have had he stayed home and run in a much weaker race.
The problem is--considering the way the race played out and his previous "into the frying pan" starts--that it might also have been his last good race period.

And we didn't even discuss how well bred he is for the turf...
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  #16  
Old 05-04-2021, 05:10 PM
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fantini33 fantini33 is offline
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Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind View Post
I donít know why itís so hard to understand that Beyer figs are final time Figs, Freddy, and that horses that set excruciating paces will always run final time figures lower than the actual performance they gave. There was zero chance Jackieís Warrior was going to get a big final time fig given that pace. He and the runner up ran huge. The Beyer fig was never going to tell that story. I honestly cannot understand why you keep harping on this.

Itís the opposite of raising figs because super slow fractions make fast final times impossible, something you see far more frequently in turf races.
Timeform Figures illustrate this perfectly. The numbers ARE derived from pace. The winner doesnít always end up with the highest fig. It opened my eyes to an entirely better way of judging performances.
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  #17  
Old 05-04-2021, 05:28 PM
blackthroatedwind blackthroatedwind is offline
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Timeform Figures illustrate this perfectly. The numbers ARE derived from pace. The winner doesnít always end up with the highest fig. It opened my eyes to an entirely better way of judging performances.
Better is a tricky word. Different and worth comparing to try to determine why they sometimes disagree
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  #18  
Old 05-05-2021, 06:18 AM
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Dunbar Dunbar is offline
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Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind View Post
Better is a tricky word. Different and worth comparing to try to determine why they sometimes disagree
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar
photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
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  #19  
Old 05-05-2021, 08:17 AM
Dahoss Dahoss is offline
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Hey Dunbar...Iíve been meaning to ask. Howíd your future wagering go this year?
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  #20  
Old 05-05-2021, 11:05 AM
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Dunbar Dunbar is offline
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Hey Dunbar...Iíve been meaning to ask. Howíd your future wagering go this year?
I lost. I guess to you that means I made a bad bet, right?
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar
photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
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