BC '13 NOTEBOOK: Juvenile; Juvy Fillies; Juvy Turf; Juvy Filly Turf

[Kasept]

FRI 7th (2:25) Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (G1)

1 Mile (Turf) | Open | 2 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $1,000,000

1 1 All Cash Saez L Lukas D Wayne 122 30-1
2 2 Giovanni Boldini Moore R L O'Brien Aidan P 122 7-2
3 3 Got Shades Stevens G L Pish Danny 122 30-1
4 4 Outstrip (GB) Smith M E Appleby Charles 122 4-1
5 5 Bobby's Kitten Castellano J J Brown Chad C 122 5-2
6 6 Home School (IRE) Bejarano R O'Neill Doug 122 Blk-On 30-1
7 7 Aotearoa Nakatani C S Powell Leonard 122 12-1
8 8 Bon Accord Rosario J Sano Antonio 122 20-1
9 9 Wilshire Boulevard (IRE) Buick W T O'Brien Aidan P 122 8-1
10 10 Ontology Gutierrez Mario Callaghan Simon 122 30-1
11 11 Poker Player Hill C Catalano Wayne M 122 12-1
12 12 Shamshon (IRE) Hughes R Hannon Richard 122 12-1
13 13 Bashart Velazquez J R Pletcher Todd A 122 6-1

Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta Pick 3 (Races 7-8-9) / Daily Double Pick 4 (Races 7-8-9-10)



FRI 9th (3:50) Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1)

1 Mile (Turf) | Fillies | 2 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $1,000,000

1 1 Nesso Garcia M Belvoir Vann 122 20-1
2 2 Al Thakhira (GB) Moore R L Botti Marco 122 6-1
3 3 Colonel Joan Talamo J Harty Eoin 122 20-1
4 4 Kitten Kaboodle Velazquez J R Brown Chad C 122 12-1
5 5 Granny Mc's Kitten Castellano J J Brown Chad C 122 20-1
6 6 Vorda (FR) Peslier O Sogorb Philippe 122 4-1
7 7 Street Sailing Garcia Alan Mettee Richard C 122 15-1
8 8 Chriselliam (IRE) Hughes R Hills Charles 122 6-1
9 9 Dancing House Smith M E McLaughlin Kiaran P 122 20-1
10 10 Clenor (IRE) Bejarano R O'Neill Doug 122 8-1
11 11 Ready to Act Rosario J Brown Chad C 122 8-1
12 12 Testa Rossi (FR) Lezcano J Brown Chad C 122 8-1
13 13 Sky Painter Saez L McLaughlin Kiaran P 122 15-1
14 14 My Conquestadory Da Silva E R Casse Mark 122 9-2

Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta Pick 3 (Races 9-10-11) / Daily Double Super High Five



SAT 4th (12:05) Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1)

1 1/16 Miles | Fillies | 2 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $2,000,000

1 1 Artemis Agrotera Lezcano J Hushion Michael E 122 3-1
2 2 Rosalind Rosario J McPeek Kenneth G 122 8-1
3 3 Designer Legs Talamo J Stewart Dallas 122 30-1
4 4 Secret Compass Velazquez J R Baffert Bob 122 6-1
5 5 Ria Antonia Castellano J J Englehart Jeremiah C 122 Blk-On 30-1
6 6 Concave Gutierrez Mario O'Neill Doug 122 15-1
7 7 Untapable Napravnik R Asmussen Steven M 122 5-1
8 8 Scandalous Act Nunez E O O'Connell Kathleen 122 8-1
9 9 Sweet Reason Solis A Gyarmati Leah 122 5-2
10 10 She's a Tiger Stevens G L Bonde Jeff 122 6-1

Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6) / Daily Double Pick 4 (Races 4-5-6-7)



SAT 8th (2:43) Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1)

1 1/16 Miles | Open | 2 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $2,000,000

1 1 Smarty's Echo Baird E T Smith Anne P 122 20-1
2 2 Dance With Fate Bejarano R Eurton Peter 122 8-1
3 3 Mexikoma Garcia Alan Mettee Richard C 122 12-1
4 4 New Year's Day Garcia M Baffert Bob 122 8-1
5 5 Bond Holder Gutierrez Mario O'Neill Doug 122 8-1
6 6 Tap It Rich Smith M E Baffert Bob 122 6-1
7 7 Cleburne Nakatani C S Romans Dale 122 12-1
8 8 Conquest Titan Da Silva E R Casse Mark 122 30-1
9 9 Rum Point Maldonado E O'Neill Doug 122 30-1
10 10 We Miss Artie Castellano J J Pletcher Todd A 122 8-1
11 11 Medal Count Albarado R J Romans Dale 122 20-1
12 12 Diamond Bachelor Leparoux J R Biancone Patrick L 122 12-1
13 13 Havana Velazquez J R Pletcher Todd A 122 5-2
14 14 Strong Mandate Rosario J Lukas D Wayne 122 6-1

Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta Pick 3 (Races 8-9-10) / Daily Double

[Monarchos1]

Alberts Hope isn't in training.

[10 pnt move up]

Should be entertaining to what Tap It Rich ride himself in that race.

[Arletta]

No Bahnah?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

Should be entertaining to what Tap It Rich ride himself in that race.

Mike Smith

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Arletta

No Bahnah?

Maybe.. Still accruing lists.

[keithting]

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, Grade 1, $1 million, 1 mile turf, 2-year-old fillies

- My Conquestadory (Mark Casse) -- Juvenile Fillies (2)
- Vorda-FR (Philippe Sogorb
- Clenor-IRE (Doug O'Neill
- Testa Rossi-FR (Chad Brown
- Sky Painter (Kiaran McLaughlin
- Lien on Kitten (Wayne Catalano
- Kitten Kaboodle (Chad Brown
- Granny Mc's Kitten (Chad Brown
- Nesso (Vann Belvoir
- Colonel Joan (Eoin Harty
- Miss Machiavelli (Keith Desormeaux
- Miss Frost (Tom Albertrani
- Pleasant Miss (Jerry Hollendorfer
- Duff One (Gary Contessa[/quote]

I know that everyone says that My Conquestadory is a "cinch" in the Juvy Fillies Turf, but I luv Clenor (IRE) in this spot....

[letswastemoney]

Originally Posted by keithting

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, Grade 1, $1 million, 1 mile turf, 2-year-old fillies

I know that everyone says that My Conquestadory is a "cinch" in the Juvy Fillies Turf, but I luv Clenor (IRE) in this spot....

I certainly don't think My Conquestadory is a cinch. She is going to be overbet, and that Woodbine win wasn't that great considering the lack of quality in the field. The Keeneland race also seemed to come back slow.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

I certainly don't think My Conquestadory is a cinch. She is going to be overbet, and that Woodbine win wasn't the great considering the lack of quality in the field. The Keeneland race also seemed to come back slow.

Based on Casse's dreadful BC performances, I will be throwing out My Conquestadory in whatever race she runs in. Maybe she is his Squirtle Squirt? I doubt it.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

I certainly don't think My Conquestadory is a cinch. She is going to be overbet, and that Woodbine win wasn't that great considering the lack of quality in the field. The Keeneland race also seemed to come back slow.

Hard to know much about the Summer field until Go Bro, Matador and Dig Alittle Deeper run back out of it, no? But note that Tropic of Artie -- 5th behind her in the Summer as a MDN -- just got beat a zot last week at KEE by Mygalsal who in turn had been beaten in his previous start by next out Bourbon winner Poker Player.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Based on Casse's dreadful BC performances, I will be throwing out My Conquestadory in whatever race she runs in. Maybe she is his Squirtle Squirt? I doubt it.

You didn't bother to actually look at the records at all I'm guessing. Mark Casse is 0/14 in the Breeders' Cup and as a point of reference, Christophe Clement is 0/22, Ken McPeek 0/20, John Sadler 0/28. Frankel took 32 starters to get a Cup win. No one has a dreadful Cup record considering the limited number of opportunities, quality of the participants and random nature of the event.

[Round Pen]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Hard to know much about the Summer field until Go Bro, Matador and Dig Alittle Deeper run back out of it, no? But note that Tropic of Artie -- 5th behind her in the Summer as a MDN -- just got beat a zot last week at KEE by Mygalsal who in turn had been beaten in his previous start by next out Bourbon winner Poker Player.

Steve, Matador is being entered today for Sundays Cup and Saucer at Woodbine. I think he has a big shot.

[Round Pen]

Originally Posted by Kasept

You didn't bother to actually look at the records at all I'm guessing. Mark Casse is 0/14 in the Breeders' Cup and as a point of reference, Christophe Clement is 0/22, Ken McPeek 0/20, John Sadler 0/28. Frankel took 32 starters to get a Cup win. No one has a dreadful Cup record considering the limited number of opportunities, quality of the participants and random nature of the event.

Thank You, I knew most of those but did not realize that about Frankel.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by Kasept

You didn't bother to actually look at the records at all I'm guessing. Mark Casse is 0/14 in the Breeders' Cup and as a point of reference, Christophe Clement is 0/22, Ken McPeek 0/20, John Sadler 0/28. Frankel took 32 starters to get a Cup win. No one has a dreadful Cup record considering the limited number of opportunities, quality of the participants and random nature of the event.

Yes you are guessing. Simply not winning is one thing. Having horses that look great on paper and than can't even hit the board is another.

[keithting]

I believe that the Breeders Cup is like the "Academy Awards" - - that is, just getting a horse there confirms a fine training effort on the part of the conditioner....I don't put much emphasis on the trainer's win or ITM % for horses in the BC

Based on this discussion, you guys have set my wager for the Juvy Fillies Turf - I'm boxing Clenor (IRE) and My Conquestadory in the exacta....

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Yes you are guessing. Simply not winning is one thing. Having horses that look great on paper and than can't even hit the board is another.

You didn't look it his record, you just flippantly snarled at Casse and his operation.

So let's see who "looked great on paper and couldn't hit the board"?

End Sweep in '94 Sprint at 44-1?
Jealous Forum in '01 J-Filly at 77-1?
Higher World in '04 J-Filly at 61-1?
Skip Code in '06 Juvenile at 61-1?
Clearly Foxy in '07 J-Filly at 17-1?
Sealy Hill in '08 F&M Turf at 49-1 (2nd, beaten less than a length)
Skipadate in '08 J-Turf at 9-1? (11th as 6th choice)
Delightful Mary in '10 J-Filly at 11-1? (3rd as 6th choice)
Prospective in '11 Juvenile at 41-1?
Northern Passion in '11 J-Filly at 11-1? (7th as 4th choice)
Spring Venture in '12 J-Filly at 7-2? (Bled)
Spring in the Air in '12 J-Filly Turf at 6-1? (5th as 5th choice)
Delegation in '12 Dirt Mile at 19-1? (3rd, beaten 4L)
Pool Play in '12 Classic at 39-1? (8th as 11th choice)

Who was supposed to hit the board among the 7 runners 39-1 or higher? (As it happens, Sealy Hill did and nearly won..)

Among those that were 'bet', Spring Venture (7-2) bled, Spring in the Air chased in the merry-go-round race last year, Delightful Mary 'hit the board' while Skipadate and Northern Passion legitimately underperformed.

The reality of Casse's record is that it's pretty typical. If Sealy Hill gets past Forever Together, his record puts him in the top 30 of trainers in the Cup.

You're simply wrong about his performers being 'dreadful'. In fact, you could say on balance, his runners have over-performed based on their prices in the Cup.

[RockHardTen1985]

I'm not that familiar with Casse, why the 7yr gap between starts?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Hard to know much about the Summer field until Go Bro, Matador and Dig Alittle Deeper run back out of it, no? But note that Tropic of Artie -- 5th behind her in the Summer as a MDN -- just got beat a zot last week at KEE by Mygalsal who in turn had been beaten in his previous start by next out Bourbon winner Poker Player.

Wasn't the Bourbon run on synth and not turf?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Wasn't the Bourbon run on synth and not turf?

Yes..

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by Kasept

You didn't look it his record, you just flippantly snarled at Casse and his operation.

So let's see who "looked great on paper and couldn't hit the board"?

End Sweep in '94 Sprint at 44-1?
Jealous Forum in '01 J-Filly at 77-1?
Higher World in '04 J-Filly at 61-1?
Skip Code in '06 Juvenile at 61-1?
Clearly Foxy in '07 J-Filly at 17-1?
Sealy Hill in '08 F&M Turf at 49-1 (2nd, beaten less than a length)
Skipadate in '08 J-Turf at 9-1? (11th as 6th choice)
Delightful Mary in '10 J-Filly at 11-1? (3rd as 6th choice)
Prospective in '11 Juvenile at 41-1?
Northern Passion in '11 J-Filly at 11-1? (7th as 4th choice)
Spring Venture in '12 J-Filly at 7-2? (Bled)
Spring in the Air in '12 J-Filly Turf at 6-1? (5th as 5th choice)
Delegation in '12 Dirt Mile at 19-1? (3rd, beaten 4L)
Pool Play in '12 Classic at 39-1? (8th as 11th choice)

Who was supposed to hit the board among the 7 runners 39-1 or higher? (As it happens, Sealy Hill did and nearly won..)

Among those that were 'bet', Spring Venture (7-2) bled, Spring in the Air chased in the merry-go-round race last year, Delightful Mary 'hit the board' while Skipadate and Northern Passion legitimately underperformed.

The reality of Casse's record is that it's pretty typical. If Sealy Hill gets past Forever Together, his record puts him in the top 30 of trainers in the Cup.

You're simply wrong about his performers being 'dreadful'. In fact, you could say on balance, his runners have over-performed based on their prices in the Cup.

Thank you for the research. When a horse runs poorly it doesn't always mean they bled but that is trotted out as the go to response....I should have been more specific. AS I've said here elsewhere, his horses run well at Keeneland and Woodbine. He is simply a different trainer elsewhere for whatever reason including turf races. This is not a shot at his operation this is simply what someone who bets should take into account. The 10-1 region can be considered a shortish price in the BC, by the way, when you have fields as big as they have been. The last few Cups have been at SA and I have been unimpressed with how Casse's horses have run. Not to mention Delegation was a suck up 3rd in that race b/c the jock trip on Gaines horse was an abortion....He will have an even money favorite in whatever race he goes with My Conques....time to put up.