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  #81  
Old 04-16-2017, 12:24 AM
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richard burch richard burch is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept View Post
Castellano commits to Gunnevara..
well then he is committed to losing the derby.
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  #82  
Old 04-16-2017, 06:42 AM
tywizard tywizard is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by richard burch View Post
well then he is committed to losing the derby.
Big Malagacy fan? He committed to the best option available.
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  #83  
Old 04-16-2017, 09:24 AM
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Originally Posted by tywizard View Post
Big Malagacy fan? He committed to the best option available.
no, not that horse. true for the other one. if you get a mount in the derby you go.
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  #84  
Old 04-16-2017, 11:07 AM
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Originally Posted by richard burch View Post
well then he is committed to losing the derby.
Going out on quite the limb there saying the horse that's gonna be like the 5th choice won't win in a 20 horse field.
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  #85  
Old 04-17-2017, 04:47 AM
tanner12oz tanner12oz is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by richard burch View Post
well then he is committed to losing the derby.
but still hitting the board
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  #86  
Old 04-17-2017, 10:32 AM
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Jon White Projected Kentucky Derby ML

1. Girvin (Joe Sharp/Mike Smith) 15-1
2. Classic Empire (Mark Casse/Julien Leparoux) 5-1**
3. Gormley (John Shirreffs/Victor Espinoza) 15-1
4. Irap (Doug O'Neill/Mario Guttierez) 20-1
5. Irish War Cry (Graham Motion/Rajiv Maragh) 6-1
6. Thunder Snow (Saeed bin Suroor/Christophe Soumillon) 20-1
7. Always Dreaming (Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez) 6-1
8. Gunnevera (Antonio Sano/Javier Castellano) 12-1
9. Practical Joke (Chad Brown/Joel Rosario) 15-1
10. J Boys Echo (Dale Romans/Robby Albarado) 20-1
11. State of Honor (Mark Casse/TBA) 30-1
12. Tapwrit (Todd Pletcher/Jose Ortiz) 20-1
13. Malagacy (Todd Pletcher/TBA) 20-1
14. Hence (Steve Asmussen/Alfredo Juarez Jr.) 20-1
15. Fast and Accurate (Mike Maker/Tyler Gafflione) 50-1
16. McCraken (Ian Wilkes/Brian Hernandez Jr.) 8-1
17. Battle of Midway (Jerry Hollendorfer/Corey Nakatani) 30-1
18. Patch (Todd Pletcher/TBA) 30-1
19. Battalion Runner (Todd Pletcher/TBA) 20-1
XX. Cloud Computing (Chad Brown/Irad Ortiz Jr.-Manny Franco) 20-1 ~ Unlikely
20. Untrapped (Steve Asmussen/Rafael Santana Jr.) 30-1
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
21. Lookin at Lee (Steve Asmussen/Rafael Santana Jr.) 30-1
22. Sonneteer (Keith Desormeaux/Kent Desormeaux) 30-1
23. Royal Mo (John Shirreffs/Gary Stevens) 30-1
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Last edited by Kasept : 04-18-2017 at 02:36 PM.
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  #87  
Old 04-17-2017, 10:54 AM
Holybull1 Holybull1 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept View Post
Jon White Projected Kentucky Derby ML

1. Girvin (Joe Sharp/Mike Smith) 15-1
2. Classic Empire (Mark Casse/Julien Leparoux) 5-1**
3. Gormley (John Shirreffs/Victor Espinoza) 15-1
4. Irap (Doug O'Neill/Mario Guttierez) 20-1
5. Irish War Cry (Graham Motion/Rajiv Maragh) 6-1
6. Thunder Snow (Saeed bin Suroor/Christophe Soumillon) 20-1
7. Always Dreaming (Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez) 6-1
8. Gunnevera (Antonio Sano/Javier Castellano) 12-1
9. Practical Joke (Chad Brown/Joel Rosario) 15-1
10. J Boys Echo (Dale Romans/Robby Albarado) 20-1
11. State of Honor (Mark Casse/TBA) 30-1
12. Conquest Mo Money (Miguel Hernandez/Jorge Carreno) 20-1
13. Tapwrit (Todd Pletcher/Jose Ortiz) 20-1
14. Malagacy (Todd Pletcher/TBA) 20-1
15. Hence (Steve Asmussen/Alfredo Juarez Jr.) 20-1
16. Fast and Accurate (Mike Maker/Tyler Gafflione) 50-1
17. McCraken (Ian Wilkes/Brian Hernandez Jr.) 8-1
18. Battle of Midway (Jerry Hollendorfer/Corey Nakatani) 30-1
19. Patch (Todd Pletcher/TBA) 30-1
20. Battalion Runner (Todd Pletcher/TBA) 20-1
------------------------------------------------------
21. Cloud Computing (Chad Brown/Irad Ortiz Jr.-Manny Franco) 20-1
22. Untrapped (Steve Asmussen/Rafael Santana Jr.) 30-1
23. Lookin at Lee (Steve Asmussen/Rafael Santana Jr.) 30-1
24. Sonneteer (Keith Desormeaux/Kent Desormeaux) 30-1
25. Royal Mo (John Shirreffs/Gary Stevens) 30-1
Looks pretty spot-on.
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  #88  
Old 04-17-2017, 11:25 AM
tywizard tywizard is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Holybull1 View Post
Looks pretty spot-on.
132.5%

Some of these HAVE to be higher for the line to balance.

Moving IWC and Always Dreaming both to 8-1 makes it much more reasonable.

Here's my attempt:

Horse ML Odds
Girvin 12
Classic Empire 5
Gormley 20
Irap 20
Irish War Cry 6
Thunder Snow (IRE) 15
Always Dreaming 8
Gunnevera 15
Practical Joke 15
J Boys Echo 20
State of Honor 25
Conquest Mo Money 20
Tapwrit 25
Malagacy 40
Hence 20
Fast and Accurate 50
McCraken 8
Battle of Midway 25
Patch 30
Battalion Runner 25
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  #89  
Old 04-17-2017, 11:32 AM
tywizard tywizard is offline
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Is Juarez for sure confirmed on Hence?

Geroux looks to be available and would fit him well.
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  #90  
Old 04-17-2017, 12:14 PM
Conrad Conrad is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept View Post
Castellano commits to Gunnevara..
Hopefully he won't make the same mistake he did with Normandy Invasion and make his move WAY too soon. This colt has a shot with the right set up and ride.
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  #91  
Old 04-17-2017, 03:33 PM
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Am I the only one that thinks that Irap may be getting good right on cue, for connections that know how to do this, and will be able to make his own trip?

That, to me, is the one that if I don't play, and it pays $56, will be saying out loud that I should have had it.

Am I crazy?
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  #92  
Old 04-17-2017, 04:00 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fantini33 View Post
Am I the only one that thinks that Irap may be getting good right on cue, for connections that know how to do this, and will be able to make his own trip?

That, to me, is the one that if I don't play, and it pays $56, will be saying out loud that I should have had it.

Am I crazy?
Not at all...
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  #93  
Old 04-17-2017, 09:51 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cakes44 View Post
Going out on quite the limb there saying the horse that's gonna be like the 5th choice won't win in a 20 horse field.
"Going out on quite the limb" is my middle name!

Austin Going out on quite the limb Powers.
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  #94  
Old 04-17-2017, 09:54 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cakes44 View Post
Going out on quite the limb there saying the horse that's gonna be like the 5th choice won't win in a 20 horse field.
but really, I feel more confident in saying he will not win the derby than saying who the winner actually will be. Until the post draw the odds are slightly off now. You know who ever gets the 1,2 or 3 shoot is done.

Ferdinand was the last horse to win from the far inside post (in 1986), and you have to go back to Triple Crown winner Affirmed in 1978 to find a Derby winner that broke from gate No. 2.

- Overall, posts 1 through 4 have a 7.3 percent win rate but Super Saver (2010) is the only winner in the last 17 runnings.

The outside of the gate has had great success in recent years. The auxiliary gate (15-20) has had eight of the last 17 winners, including the aforementioned American Pharoah, I’ll Have Another (post 19, 2012), Animal Kingdom (post 16, 2011) and Big Brown (post 20, 2008).



https://www.americasbestracing.net/t...ns-the-numbers

but I have some thoughts on that.


and don't we get a Japan horse in the field every year?

Epicharis Earns Japan's Kentucky Derby Bid
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...ucky-derby-bid
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Last edited by richard burch : 04-17-2017 at 10:09 PM.
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  #95  
Old 04-18-2017, 02:31 PM
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Conquest Mo Money will PASS on Derby.. Look at Preakness..
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  #96  
Old 04-18-2017, 09:41 PM
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Jose Lezcano gets call on State of Honor..
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A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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  #97  
Old 04-19-2017, 05:28 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept View Post
Jose Lezcano gets call on State of Honor..
Maann, this was the right horse for Paco Lopez
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  #98  
Old 04-19-2017, 09:46 AM
LITF LITF is offline
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Does anyone know what way the connections are leaning with Malagacy and Untrapped? Am finding myself more and more intrigued with Sonnetteer as maybe a long shot bomber to hit the board. And who knows, with the way this years Derby prep season has gone it would seem fitting for a maiden to win.
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  #99  
Old 04-20-2017, 11:23 AM
Holybull1 Holybull1 is offline
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Here are foaling dates for most of the runners in the field:

5/6/17 - Kentucky Derby

1. Girvin (Joe Sharp/Mike Smith) March 31
2. Classic Empire (Mark Casse/Julien Leparoux) March 21
3. Gormley (John Shirreffs/Victor Espinoza) March 20
4. Irap (Doug O'Neill/Mario Guttierez) February 11
5. Irish War Cry (Graham Motion/Rajiv Maragh) May 2
6. Thunder Snow (Saeed bin Suroor/Christophe Soumillon) March 24
7. Always Dreaming (Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez) February 25
8. Gunnevera (Antonio Sano/Javier Castellano) February 28
9. Practical Joke (Chad Brown/Joel Rosario) April 15
10. J Boys Echo (Dale Romans/Robby Albarado) April 21
11. State of Honor (Mark Casse/Jose Lezcano) February 25
12. Tapwrit (Todd Pletcher/Jose Ortiz) March 28
--. Malagacy (Todd Pletcher/TBA) 50 ~ Unlikely
13. Hence (Steve Asmussen/Alfredo Juarez Jr.) March 28
14. Fast and Accurate (Mike Maker/Tyler Gafflione) ?
15. McCraken (Ian Wilkes/Brian Hernandez Jr.) April 13
16. Battle of Midway (Jerry Hollendorfer/Corey Nakatani) January 30
17. Patch (Todd Pletcher/TBA) March 18
18. Battalion Runner (Todd Pletcher/TBA) March 15
--. Cloud Computing (Chad Brown) 40 ~ Unlikely
19. Untrapped (Steve Asmussen/Ricardo Santana Jr.) ?
20. Lookin at Lee (Steve Asmussen/Ricardo Santana Jr.) ?
------------------------------------------------------
21. Sonneteer (Keith Desormeaux/Kent Desormeaux) March 1
22. Royal Mo (John Shirreffs/Gary Stevens) February 14
23. Local Hero (Steve Asmussen) March 21
24. Master Plan (Todd Pletcher) ?
25. Blueridge Traveler (Ken McPeek) ?
26. Petrov (Ron Moquett) March 26
27. Lancaster Bomber (Aiden O'Brien) ?
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  #100  
Old 04-21-2017, 01:19 PM
Rudeboyelvis Rudeboyelvis is offline
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Flavien Prat picks up Battle of Midway mount
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