Derby Trail Forums

Go Back   Derby Trail Forums > Stakes Archive
Register FAQ Members List Calendar Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 02-27-2019, 04:47 PM
Kasept's Avatar
Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 42,548
Default 3/2 (GP): FOY (G2), Palm Beach, Very One, Bride, CDN, T-SPR, Fox (G3's)







__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 02-28-2019, 09:49 AM
knickslions2's Avatar
knickslions2 knickslions2 is offline
Longchamps
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Ohio
Posts: 13,436
Default

Nice post for Vekoma. Looking for a big race from him!!
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 02-28-2019, 11:53 AM
Alabama Stakes Alabama Stakes is offline
Havre de Grace
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: suffolk downs
Posts: 5,811
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by knickslions2 View Post
Nice post for Vekoma. Looking for a big race from him!!
Could you elaborate a little on why ? I know you and Moses are high on this hoss.
He seems to have bad action. He is seldom running straight. To me these guys rarely go forward as 3 year olds. I can’t see him even hitting the board.
Though in anothertwistafate I like the deuce Epic Dreamer to wire the field. Vekoma did beat him breaking his maiden, but I think with the Holy Bull under his belt, he can keep going. The Hough guy is interesting also.

This should strengthen your opinion on Vekoma if anything.
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 02-28-2019, 12:12 PM
blackthroatedwind blackthroatedwind is offline
Jerome Park
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 9,931
Default

I wonder how people that took 23:1 on Global Campaign in the Derby future pool feel about him likely being north of 10:1 in this race.

Pretty funny when you think about it.
__________________
Just more nebulous nonsense from BBB
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 02-28-2019, 12:24 PM
RHT2004 RHT2004 is offline
Atlantic City Race Course
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 4,829
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes View Post
Could you elaborate a little on why ? I know you and Moses are high on this hoss.
He seems to have bad action. He is seldom running straight. To me these guys rarely go forward as 3 year olds. I can’t see him even hitting the board.
Though in anothertwistafate I like the deuce Epic Dreamer to wire the field. Vekoma did beat him breaking his maiden, but I think with the Holy Bull under his belt, he can keep going. The Hough guy is interesting also.

This should strengthen your opinion on Vekoma if anything.

Hate to say it, I'm not a fan either.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 02-28-2019, 12:55 PM
moses's Avatar
moses moses is offline
Oriental Park
 
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 3,604
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes View Post
Could you elaborate a little on why ? I know you and Moses are high on this hoss.
He seems to have bad action. He is seldom running straight. To me these guys rarely go forward as 3 year olds. I can’t see him even hitting the board.
Though in anothertwistafate I like the deuce Epic Dreamer to wire the field. Vekoma did beat him breaking his maiden, but I think with the Holy Bull under his belt, he can keep going. The Hough guy is interesting also.

This should strengthen your opinion on Vekoma if anything.
There are probably some flaws in my thinking but he starts well, has early speed and finishes well, has been wide on the turn for both his races but still finishes well, has beaten Network Effect, Call Paul, Epic Dreamer, and Mihos (maybe no elite horses but each pretty good), thought his Nashua win was one of the more impressive wins of the 2YOs last year, has done this all without lasix (which is now added), like the pedigree a bit with Candy Ride as the sire and Speightstown as the damsire.

All that said, I’m really just dying to see him run again. I think what he’s done so far is a really nice foundation to build from but need to see him continue to impress.
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 02-28-2019, 12:56 PM
knickslions2's Avatar
knickslions2 knickslions2 is offline
Longchamps
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Ohio
Posts: 13,436
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes View Post
Could you elaborate a little on why ? I know you and Moses are high on this hoss.
He seems to have bad action. He is seldom running straight. To me these guys rarely go forward as 3 year olds. I can’t see him even hitting the board.
Though in anothertwistafate I like the deuce Epic Dreamer to wire the field. Vekoma did beat him breaking his maiden, but I think with the Holy Bull under his belt, he can keep going. The Hough guy is interesting also.

This should strengthen your opinion on Vekoma if anything.
His speed figures were very good as a two year old and Im sure got some of the kinks worked out. Horse is training well and has that Candy Ride appeal. Those races he won were against nice horses. Horses that have won races against some of the derby contenders. Of course its always a mystery for the first race at 3 but I think this one has a lot of positives. I think the favorite is more of a mystery here. As for the future bets I thought he was one of the few good values in the pool.
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 02-28-2019, 01:08 PM
moses's Avatar
moses moses is offline
Oriental Park
 
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 3,604
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by knickslions2 View Post
His speed figures were very good as a two year old and Im sure got some of the kinks worked out. Horse is training well and has that Candy Ride appeal. Those races he won were against nice horses. Horses that have won races against some of the derby contenders. Of course its always a mystery for the first race at 3 but I think this one has a lot of positives. I think the favorite is more of a mystery here. As for the future bets I thought he was one of the few good values in the pool.
That reminds me. One more reason:

I’ve got a futures wager on him at 35-1. I didn’t double down in Pool 2 but figured I’ll see what he does in the FOY and maybe put more money on him if his odds still look nice in pool 3. I don’t see anything moving people too far off some of these other horses. And they all run on the 9th during the Pool 3 window so recency bias will likely benefit Vekoma (if he does win the FOY) for Pool 3 value.
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 02-28-2019, 01:41 PM
RHT2004 RHT2004 is offline
Atlantic City Race Course
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 4,829
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by knickslions2 View Post
His speed figures were very good as a two year old and Im sure got some of the kinks worked out. Horse is training well and has that Candy Ride appeal. Those races he won were against nice horses. Horses that have won races against some of the derby contenders. Of course its always a mystery for the first race at 3 but I think this one has a lot of positives. I think the favorite is more of a mystery here. As for the future bets I thought he was one of the few good values in the pool.
I think he's the 4th most likely winner Saturday.
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 02-28-2019, 02:44 PM
blackthroatedwind blackthroatedwind is offline
Jerome Park
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 9,931
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by RHT2004 View Post
I think he's the 4th most likely winner Saturday.
He's not. He's the second likeliest winner....regardless of where he finishes.
__________________
Just more nebulous nonsense from BBB
Reply With Quote
  #11  
Old 02-28-2019, 02:50 PM
knickslions2's Avatar
knickslions2 knickslions2 is offline
Longchamps
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Ohio
Posts: 13,436
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by RHT2004 View Post
I think he's the 4th most likely winner Saturday.
At least I got a good laugh today. Hes number 2 no matter how the race ends but I like him at 1.
Reply With Quote
  #12  
Old 02-28-2019, 05:14 PM
moses's Avatar
moses moses is offline
Oriental Park
 
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 3,604
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by RHT2004 View Post
I think he's the 4th most likely winner Saturday.
I hope a lot of people think that.
Reply With Quote
  #13  
Old 02-28-2019, 09:23 PM
RHT2004 RHT2004 is offline
Atlantic City Race Course
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 4,829
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind View Post
He's not. He's the second likeliest winner....regardless of where he finishes.
I respect it.
Reply With Quote
  #14  
Old 02-28-2019, 09:45 PM
RHT2004 RHT2004 is offline
Atlantic City Race Course
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 4,829
Default

Can I lock in that 7-2 on Chads horse in the 11th? Feels more like 7-5 to me.
Reply With Quote
  #15  
Old 03-01-2019, 05:57 AM
blackthroatedwind blackthroatedwind is offline
Jerome Park
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 9,931
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by RHT2004 View Post
Can I lock in that 7-2 on Chads horse in the 11th? Feels more like 7-5 to me.
Another embarrassing ML.
__________________
Just more nebulous nonsense from BBB
Reply With Quote
  #16  
Old 03-01-2019, 06:48 AM
moses's Avatar
moses moses is offline
Oriental Park
 
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 3,604
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by RHT2004 View Post
Can I lock in that 7-2 on Chads horse in the 11th? Feels more like 7-5 to me.
And the horse listed above her at 3-1 doesn’t look very good (and also sees Castellano switch over to the Chad horse you’ve mentioned).
Reply With Quote
  #17  
Old 03-01-2019, 08:40 AM
knickslions2's Avatar
knickslions2 knickslions2 is offline
Longchamps
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Ohio
Posts: 13,436
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by moses View Post
And the horse listed above her at 3-1 doesn’t look very good (and also sees Castellano switch over to the Chad horse you’ve mentioned).
I like the Motts horse a lot here. Hopefully Brown and Pletcher horses get hammered at windows
Reply With Quote
  #18  
Old 03-01-2019, 08:51 AM
RHT2004 RHT2004 is offline
Atlantic City Race Course
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 4,829
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by knickslions2 View Post
I like the Motts horse a lot here. Hopefully Brown and Pletcher horses get hammered at windows
I'm a fan of her, she's not in the same world as the 1. Plus the draw only helps the 1 and hurts the 10. Unless you think she's winning with that JV 5 wide no cover special ride.
Reply With Quote
  #19  
Old 03-01-2019, 09:01 AM
blackthroatedwind blackthroatedwind is offline
Jerome Park
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 9,931
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by RHT2004 View Post
I'm a fan of her, she's not in the same world as the 1. Plus the draw only helps the 1 and hurts the 10. Unless you think she's winning with that JV 5 wide no cover special ride.
She somehow won with that ride last time. However, she is not beating Precieuse unless that one gets extremely unlucky.
__________________
Just more nebulous nonsense from BBB
Reply With Quote
  #20  
Old 03-01-2019, 09:15 AM
moses's Avatar
moses moses is offline
Oriental Park
 
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 3,604
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by knickslions2 View Post
I like the Motts horse a lot here. Hopefully Brown and Pletcher horses get hammered at windows
Quote:
Originally Posted by RHT2004 View Post
I'm a fan of her, she's not in the same world as the 1. Plus the draw only helps the 1 and hurts the 10. Unless you think she's winning with that JV 5 wide no cover special ride.
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind View Post
She somehow won with that ride last time. However, she is not beating Precieuse unless that one gets extremely unlucky.
I like the Mott horse as well but have to agree. The horse I’m particularly interested in to beat the 1 is the 4 La Signare. Works show that she is in good shape and although there are a few early runners and she faded last time out, she probably needed a race under her belt since she hadn’t run since July.

Speaking of not running since July, that’s got to be the biggest concern with Chad’s horse. She’s run once in the last year and a half. Although obviously she fired off a long layoff in July and Chad has no problem prepping these horses.
Reply With Quote
Reply


Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 11:41 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.