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  #1  
Old 04-29-2019, 01:43 PM
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Old 04-29-2019, 03:38 PM
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Is the Edgewood that includes Newspaperofrecord and the 1/9 odds accompanying her part of the Oaks Day P6?
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Old 04-29-2019, 05:06 PM
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Originally Posted by declansharbor View Post
Is the Edgewood that includes Newspaperofrecord and the 1/9 odds accompanying her part of the Oaks Day P6?
Yep, first leg. Don't think she'll be 1-9 if the other Chad stays in there but obviously still very short and I too was surprised to see it included in the Pick 6.
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Old 04-29-2019, 05:22 PM
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Yep, first leg. Don't think she'll be 1-9 if the other Chad stays in there but obviously still very short and I too was surprised to see it included in the Pick 6.
Probably 1/2 and 2/1, with the others 20+ (rightfully so. They can't win.)
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Old 04-29-2019, 07:45 PM
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Yep, first leg. Don't think she'll be 1-9 if the other Chad stays in there but obviously still very short and I too was surprised to see it included in the Pick 6.

A short priced single helps handle in a Pick-6 and Pick-5 and possibly Pick-4 depending on the other legs.
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Old 04-29-2019, 07:47 PM
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Probably 1/2 and 2/1, with the others 20+ (rightfully so. They can't win.)
I see that's around the ML but I will respectfully disagree. No way those two are that close. They are in different leagues unless somehow Newspaperofrecord forgot how to run.
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Old 04-30-2019, 01:01 AM
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I see that's around the ML but I will respectfully disagree. No way those two are that close. They are in different leagues unless somehow Newspaperofrecord forgot how to run.
I donít disagree. My line would be 2/5 and 3/1... Iím just making a ML, with the notation their speed figures are pretty close and the betting public will focus on that. Iíll probably avoid the race as thereís some much more appealing races later.
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Old 04-30-2019, 10:10 AM
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A short priced single helps handle in a Pick-6 and Pick-5 and possibly Pick-4 depending on the other legs.
I know it helps the handle b/c everyone is under the impression that there is a free square, but the last couple of years i've actually been trying to ween myself away from Pk3-Pk4-Pk5, etc. wagers when there is a chalk like Newspaperofrecord to start the first leg. My mindset is that everyone will have the horse in some which way shape or form thereby creating more live tickets and pushing down the payout.

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Old 04-30-2019, 11:40 AM
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I know it helps the handle b/c everyone is under the impression that there is a free square, but the last couple of years i've actually been trying to ween myself away from Pk3-Pk4-Pk5, etc. wagers when there is a chalk like Newspaperofrecord to start the first leg. My mindset is that everyone will have the horse in some which way shape or form thereby creating more live tickets and pushing down the payout.

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That is sometimes the case. I like to look for other races in the sequence where I can separate from the pack, though thatís not always the case.
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Old 04-30-2019, 01:14 PM
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A short priced single helps handle in a Pick-6 and Pick-5 and possibly Pick-4 depending on the other legs.
Yeah, but usually in cases like these I'd think the objective is also to create a big carryover for the big day. Although with the $.20 minimum, that's pretty unlikely either way.
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  #11  
Old 04-30-2019, 03:22 PM
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Originally Posted by -BT- View Post
I know it helps the handle b/c everyone is under the impression that there is a free square, but the last couple of years i've actually been trying to ween myself away from Pk3-Pk4-Pk5, etc. wagers when there is a chalk like Newspaperofrecord to start the first leg. My mindset is that everyone will have the horse in some which way shape or form thereby creating more live tickets and pushing down the payout.

-bt-
I relish these opportunities... Will include the favorite with one or 2 long shots and if she doesn't fire you are competing for a LARGE Pick 3, 4, 5.... Horses are not machines...
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Old 04-30-2019, 04:35 PM
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I relish these opportunities... Will include the favorite with one or 2 long shots and if she doesn't fire you are competing for a LARGE Pick 3, 4, 5.... Horses are not machines...
i agree with that logic about adding a few prices if the chalk runs up the track, but then where do you get skinny? At least for me, the whole point of singling is so i can cast a wider net in the remaining sequence.

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Old 04-30-2019, 04:59 PM
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Originally Posted by -BT- View Post
i agree with that logic about adding a few prices if the chalk runs up the track, but then where do you get skinny? At least for me, the whole point of singling is so i can cast a wider net in the remaining sequence.

-bt-
See that is what everyone is doing and leads you to a lot of chalky payouts and exits in situations that you want to be alive (Heavy Favorite Beat). Skinny for may be 2 deep in another leg where I really like a horse (usually not favorite). Or in the case of the Derby I may choose to make my Stand in the Derby and single there. Look at Pick 5 last year into Derby Favorite $620,827.65... You don't get a shot at a number like that when your single is an overwhelming odds on favorite... Now of course I will have a backup ticket where I might single that Odds on favorite along with my other "skinny" and get deeper in a race like the derby but that ticket will be much cheaper and basically it is a get out...
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  #14  
Old 04-30-2019, 05:20 PM
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Originally Posted by jms62 View Post
See that is what everyone is doing and leads you to a lot of chalky payouts and exits in situations that you want to be alive (Heavy Favorite Beat). Skinny for may be 2 deep in another leg where I really like a horse (usually not favorite). Or in the case of the Derby I may choose to make my Stand in the Derby and single there. Look at Pick 5 last year into Derby Favorite $620,827.65... You don't get a shot at a number like that when your single is an overwhelming odds on favorite... Now of course I will have a backup ticket where I might single that Odds on favorite along with my other "skinny" and get deeper in a race like the derby but that ticket will be much cheaper and basically it is a get out...
Thatís what Iím talking about. Iím not a horizontal guy in general, but this is good sh!t.
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  #15  
Old 05-01-2019, 11:49 AM
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Thatís what Iím talking about. Iím not a horizontal guy in general, but this is good sh!t.
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  #16  
Old 05-01-2019, 12:00 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jms62 View Post
See that is what everyone is doing and leads you to a lot of chalky payouts and exits in situations that you want to be alive (Heavy Favorite Beat). Skinny for may be 2 deep in another leg where I really like a horse (usually not favorite). Or in the case of the Derby I may choose to make my Stand in the Derby and single there. Look at Pick 5 last year into Derby Favorite $620,827.65... You don't get a shot at a number like that when your single is an overwhelming odds on favorite... Now of course I will have a backup ticket where I might single that Odds on favorite along with my other "skinny" and get deeper in a race like the derby but that ticket will be much cheaper and basically it is a get out...
Holy cow. I didnít remember the pick 5 being that large. Good old Funny Duck.

Anyway, good stuff. I love hearing stuff like this. Iíve been pretty good hitting Pick 3s but I struggle tremendously with the Pick 4 and 5...which I guess is sort of the point.
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  #17  
Old 05-01-2019, 12:58 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by -BT- View Post
i agree with that logic about adding a few prices if the chalk runs up the track, but then where do you get skinny? At least for me, the whole point of singling is so i can cast a wider net in the remaining sequence.

-bt-
I've been trying more often to go skinny with races I don't like the favorite. Like for the Oaks I really like Restless Rider and think Bellafina cant be beat here. I will either single that one or add Jaywalk but wont be covering Bellafina. Risk/reward
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  #18  
Old 05-01-2019, 02:04 PM
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I definitely think it's worth trying to beat Bellafina.
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Old 05-01-2019, 03:24 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jms62 View Post
See that is what everyone is doing and leads you to a lot of chalky payouts and exits in situations that you want to be alive (Heavy Favorite Beat). Skinny for may be 2 deep in another leg where I really like a horse (usually not favorite). Or in the case of the Derby I may choose to make my Stand in the Derby and single there. Look at Pick 5 last year into Derby Favorite $620,827.65... You don't get a shot at a number like that when your single is an overwhelming odds on favorite... Now of course I will have a backup ticket where I might single that Odds on favorite along with my other "skinny" and get deeper in a race like the derby but that ticket will be much cheaper and basically it is a get out...
If Im reading between the lines correctly, I like your philosophy
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  #20  
Old 05-01-2019, 05:05 PM
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WOW ó Reports on Twitter have Omaha Beach as OUT for the Kentucky Derby. Tough one for Mandella and connections! Ouch!
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