Hong Kong Plays 2020-21

[Kitan]

Originally Posted by gamblin4ever

Nice picks yesterday.
Moreira was dominant w/ 6 wins on the card.

Taking nothing away because still gotta get the job done in big fields, but these were the prices of those winners:
3-2, 3-1, 3-2, 5-2, 3-2, 2-1

On to the next...first half of tomorrow’s card looks a bit more interesting than the latter half in terms of pick confidence…on the other hand, very competitive and intriguing final race of the day.

Race 1:
#5 Enjoyable Success: His best races have come at Happy Valley, with his lone win being over the course and distance. Beaten 3/4s of a length by #1 a few starts ago but is now 10lbs better off while nearly double the overnight price.

Race 2:
I think #11 Super Eighteen is a bit overlooked here. Had a string of tough trips last season but ended off with two good third place finishes. Gets down to 111lbs with the apprentice and should get a good trip from gate 5 in a race that's not full of early speed.

#10 Destin also seems to be forgotten about. 5 1-1-1 record first off the layoff and 6 0-2-2 record at 1200m. Recent form was over a bit further at Sha Tin and is only 2 for 39 lifetime, but a must include for exotics.

#2 Helaku Knight took some action last time off the barn change, but he washed out quite badly. Worth using underneath at a good price.

Race 3:
#9 Farm Bumper got on a roll over the course and distance last year, rolling off a win and two 2nd place finishes (by a head). Looks a decent price at around 6-1.

#4 Forza Angel is drawn much better here than he was in his first run this season and is a good exotics candidate, as is #10 Travel Datuk, who has a knack of running on into a minor placing without winning.

Race 4:
#6 Wealthy Delight and #10 Winning Endeavour both closed strongly over 1200m last time and step up to a more suitable 1650m here.

PLAYS:
R1 WP 5
R2 WP 11
R2 EX 11/2,10
R3 WP 9
R3 EX 9/4,10
R4 WP 6,10

Good luck!

[Kitan]

Originally Posted by Kitan

PLAYS:
R1 WP 5 6th @ 6-1
R2 WP 11 3rd @ 24-1 ($13.50)
R2 EX 11/2,10
R3 WP 9 1st @ 10-1 ($23.50, $5.20)
R3 EX 9/4,10
R4 WP 6,10 8th @ 11-1; 6th @ 16-1

Decent day even though I wasn't close on the exotics. Still trying to figure out how the 11 in R2 got run down

Running total (based on minimum denomination)
Bet: $132
Return: $175.40
Total: +$43.40

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by Kitan

Decent day even though I wasn't close on the exotics. Still trying to figure out how the 11 in R2 got run down

Running total (based on minimum denomination)
Bet: $132
Return: $175.40
Total: +$43.40

Nice work Kitan.

[Kitan]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

Nice work Kitan.

Thanks. Let's see if I'm still in the black after this card. A few extra plays as I'm going back to the well with some of these and trying to (hopefully) take advantage of some other good prices...

Race 1:
#12 Corre Rapido is worth a shot here in a relatively weak race. While his two wins have come on the dirt, he has always trialled well down the Sha Tin straight and looked good winning a recent trial.

Race 2:
Almost last chance saloon time for #14 The Full Bloom. He ran well enough in the opening race of the season but just didn’t have much to give in the last furlong. Smacked his head leaving the gates last time so let’s ignore that. Now third off the layoff and back to 1400m at Sha Tin, his favourite course and distance. Wonder what kind of trip he’ll get from gate 11, but 20-1 overnight price is too enticing.

#3 Super Winner has been in the money in three of his four races over the course and distance and is now into Class 5 for the first time.

#4 Nunchuks put in some decent efforts last season in Class 4 and is another who gets his first chance down in class.

Race 3:
#3 Best For You won twice in this class over the course and distance last year and ran on nicely in a shorter race in his season debut. Doesn’t look like much pace in this race, but he did sit just behind the leaders in one of those wins.

Race 7:
#4 Czarson was run down by a much better horse than what he’s facing here. Will only be about half the odds as he was that day, but still a decent enough price to go with him again.

Race 8:
The first Group race of the season sees the old champ #1 Beauty Generation taking on budding superstar #6 Golden Sixty. The latter is the most likely winner, carrying 18lbs lighter given the handicap conditions, but will be odds-on.

The overnight price of around 25-1 on #7 Fast Most Furious is too good to pass up. I played him at similar odds in a G3 handicap towards the end of last season, and he would have won if he got a clearer run sooner, so he can definitely compete at this level. He has a decent record over this distance and has been in the money in four of five starts when coming off a layoff. I think he’s the key price to use in this race.

Race 10:
A few up-and-coming promising types in here, but that means there’s good prices available on some other proven performers. Specifically, #2 Mr Croissant has a 12 5-4-1 record over the Sha Tin 1200m, and that includes his last run which you can throw out (missed the start by 5 lengths). He also has a 3 1-2-0 record first off the layoff and comes into this fit---he’s done a lot of work in the mornings and has had two trials.

#11 Tornado Twist is perfect over the course and distance (3 for 3), had a nice prep run over the 1000m, and gets in at 112lbs with the apprentice. Currently over 30-1, which is a big overlay for me.

PLAYS:
R1 WP 12
R2 WP 14
R2 EX BOX 3,4,14
R3 WP 3
R7 WP 4
R8 WP 7
R8 EX BOX 1,6,7
R10 WP 2,11
R10 QUIN 2,11/2,3,10,11,14

[Kitan]

Originally Posted by Kitan

PLAYS:
R1 WP 12 5th @ 7-1
R2 WP 14 2nd @ 20-1 ($11.60)
R2 EX BOX 3,4,14 3-14 ($46.20)
R3 WP 3 9th @ 8-1
R7 WP 4 2nd @ 8-1 ($5.10)
R8 WP 7 6th @ 17-1
R8 EX BOX 1,6,7 6-1(DH) ($2.80)
R10 WP 2,11 11th @ 7-1; 5th @ 65-1
R10 QUIN 2,11/2,3,10,11,14

Running total (based on minimum denomination)
Bet: $179
Return: $241.10
Total: +$62.10

[casp0555]

Thanks Kitan...nice call on the R2 selections

[Kitan]

Originally Posted by casp0555

Thanks Kitan...nice call on the R2 selections

Thanks, Casp.

Sha Tin mid-week meeting this week…some relatively small fields with a few strong looking faves, but let’s see if we can get a price or two…

Race 1:
Not the strongest event…#8 Gintoki is the inside speed and his form isn’t too bad if you ignore his last (bled).

Race 4:
#8 Lucky Puzzle looked a bit better down in Class 4 with the blinkers on at the end of last season. Gets back to turf after trying the dirt first off the layoff. Hovering around 10-1 at the moment, which is a decent price.

Race 5:
#1 Sky Field is a very promising type and should be too good for these, as reflected by his overnight odds of 1-5.

#6 Keep You Warm appeared in this thread earlier in the season when getting an awkward trip at Happy Valley…getting back to Sha Tin should be more suitable. #5 Moeraki looked much better at the end of last season with the blinkers but gave away a few lengths at the start in his last run. Let’s play these two to place and use them underneath to juice the exotics.

Race 6:
#3 For Fun’s Sake shows up in this thread for the third time already this season. If you would have told me before his last start that he would be hovering around 30-1 in his next start down in Class 5, I probably would have booked the bet then, and I don’t even think he ran that bad last time. Again, this is too good a price to turn down.

#12 Spicy Really has also been in this thread already, and I thought that was an OK effort last time when being a little bit too far back given the shape of the race. Sha Tin looks more suitable, anyways.

I marked down that #7 Speedy Dragon probably would need the run last time. He closed well into 5th and can improve on that this time.

Race 9:
#13 What A Legend has only been over the 1400m at ST once, when putting up some nice closing sectionals in an on-pace dominated race. His recent efforts have not been too bad and is now down to 109lbs with the apprentice. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him put in a big effort at a good price.

Race 10:
#12 Amazing Chocolate was bet down to 3-2 last time but got caught wide without cover. The same can happen this time around, but he’s looked too good in his work for me to pass up double digit odds.

PLAYS
R1 WP 9
R4 WP 8
R5 P 5,6
R5 Q 1/5,6
R5 TRI 1/5,6/ALL (10 combinations)
R6 WP 3,12
R6 EX BOX 3,7,12
R9 WP 13
R10 WP 12

Good luck!

[ADJMK]

I think u meant the 8 in R1

[Kitan]

Originally Posted by ADJMK

I think u meant the 8 in R1

Correct...was a typo there in the plays...

Originally Posted by Kitan

PLAYS
R1 WP 8 2nd @ 11-1 ($5.50)
R4 WP 8 8th @ 12-1
R5 P 5,6 2nd @ 31-1 ($6.90); 7th @ 21-1
R5 Q 1/5,6 1-6 ($9.70)
R5 TRI 1/5,6/ALL (10 combinations) 1-6-4 ($30.40)
R6 WP 3,12 2nd @ 12-1 ($7.50); 5th @ 10-1
R6 EX BOX 3,7,12
R9 WP 13 10th @ 72-1
R10 WP 12 10th @ 8-1

Another decent day despite not having a winner. Even though the 13 in R9 ran horribly on paper at massive odds, I think he'll be back in this thread next time---he went too hard out in front this time and will be down in class next out.

Running total (based on minimum denomination)
Bet: $225
Return: $301.10
Total: +$76.10

[Kitan]

Race 1:
#11 Proud Sky: Nothing wrong with runs at the beginning of last season before pulling up lame. Given a run out in dirt race and now back to fav course and distance.

#10 Art of Raw: Has a poor record at ST but 2nd in season debut…chance to wire them.

Also going to take a stab on #9 Joy N Fun Legend to place. Done absolutely nothing on the track but has had a slew of excuses.

Race 3:
#8 Winwin Thirtythree has never really been a poor performer and now that he’s got a win on the board (when a selection in this thread) he may have the confidence to win again despite going back up to Class 4. 10-1 is a good price.

Race 4:
#3 Golden Mission has finished out of the top 4 on turf only once since the barn change, and that was in his last when he was wide and without cover yet was beaten less than 2 lengths. Those were all in Class 4, so he should find this easier, and should also get a more economical run from gate 6.

#4 Vital Spring has absolutely flashed home in his last two runs at HV. Back to his fav (ST 1400m) but will have it a bit tougher drawn out in post 14.

#2 Lucky Guy: 9yo was still in good form at the beginning of last season before missing some time with a lameness issue. Didn’t get a clear run last time and has a chance to juice the exotics dropping down to Class 5 for the first time.

Race 7:
#10 Chung Wah Spirit pulled up lame after his last dirt try and in the start prior to that was beaten 5 lengths by #1 but has a 22lbs swing with that runner this time around. Nothing wrong with his season debut over shorter on the turf.

PLAYS
R1 WP 10, 11
R1 P 9
R3 WP 8
R4 WP 3
R4 EX BOX 2,3,4
R7 WP 10

Good luck!

[casp0555]

Thx Kitan...Im jumping on that ex box except it will be a $10 qu box

Good Luck!!

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by casp0555

Thx Kitan...Im jumping on that ex box except it will be a $10 qu box

Good Luck!!

Lol I jumped in that one too. Sorry in advance Kitan

[chuck60]

HK Race 5

3,8,11, 13 - $5 quinella - $30 total
$5 WP #13 - Feel the 13 could benefit from a cutback if early speed shown 2 back reapperas

[chuck60]

Well that was not fun...

Race 6 - $5 wp - 9,11

[chuck60]

Thanks Kitan,

THe #10 in Race 7 helped me a lot, I appreciate the pick!

[Kitan]

Sorry casp and knicks for the poor pick in R4...and thanks chuck for the kudos for the last...I didn't play R5 but I strongly considered taking a flyer on that 14 because he had performed well in some trials down the straight before...oh well

Originally Posted by Kitan

PLAYS
R1 WP 10, 11 8th @ 9-1; 6th @ 15-1
R1 P 9 11th @ 78-1
R3 WP 8 5th @ 9-1
R4 WP 3 13th @ 7-2
R4 EX BOX 2,3,4
R7 WP 10 1st @ 5-1 ($13.80, $5.40)

Some rough trips throughout the day, two of which were on the receiving end of infractions that led to suspensions. Moreira has now racked up two suspension (four days' worth) over the last two cards...

Running total (based on minimum denomination)
Bet: $253
Return: $320.30
Total: +$67.30

[Kitan]

Interesting to see how things play out on this HV card with no Moreira or Teetan (both suspended) and Purton complaining about the strength of his rides…

Race 1:
#10 Flying Monkey finished ahead of a few of these last time when getting a 3 wide no cover trip. Finally draws an inside gate and I hope those 6-1 overnight odds stick.

#4 Gouten of Garo was the only one of these to finish ahead of the top pick (#10) from that Sept 9 race. He actually gets in 10lbs lighter this time around with the apprentice, but I think he’ll get a bit more pressure up front this time, and he is only 1/33 lifetime.

#7 Aurora Steed was the beaten fav twice in this class in the spring, but those were over 1200m and he was right there in contention at the 200m mark. Couple of excuses after that (ST 1000m try, then tough trip), and ran well enough last time when not getting the cleanest of runs. Just might get caught wide (albeit with cover) here.

Race 4:
#10 Authentic Champ didn’t run poorly first off the layoff (when a selection in this thread) and although he wasn’t going to win, he would have finished a few places closer if he hadn’t had run out of room late. Eligible to improve off that.

Race 5:
#1 Zhan Jiang Rocks comes into this fresh but first three runs last season were all over the course and distance in this class and he finished in the top three each time. His subsequent Class 3 runs over the HV 1650m were decent enough, but those are all off the form now. Nice, quiet trial leading into this and it’s not the strongest race. Double digit odds are looking very nice.

#11 V Chevaliers finally got the win on the board last time and should be able to handle the step back up to Class 4.

#9 Smart Cousin has done nothing since arriving in HK, but he trialled much better recently when leading. This race isn’t full of speed so he might go forward early.

Race 6:
#10 Precious Sweetie has finished in the top four 6/10 starts over the course and distance. April was the last time he was in an identical race and he beaten just less than 3 lengths with 130lbs. He’s now down to 112lbs…

Race 8:
#10 Allied Agility has generally put in his best performances over the Sha Tin straight, but he ran just as well over the HV 1000m at the end of last season. Just missed on seasonal return and should get a perfect trip from the rail draw.

PLAYS
R1 WP 10
R1 EX 10/4,7
R4 WP 10
R5 WP 1
R5 EX BOX 1,9,11
R6 WP 10
R6 Q 10/2,3,4,9,11
R8 WP 10

Good luck!

[Kitan]

Originally Posted by Kitan

PLAYS
R1 WP 10 3rd @ 7-2 ($3.30)
R1 EX 10/4,7
R4 WP 10 5th @ 4-1
R5 WP 1 3rd @ 27-1 ($11.70)
R5 EX BOX 1,9,11
R6 WP 10 6th @ 48-1
R6 Q 10/2,3,4,9,11
R8 WP 10 9th @ 6-1

Not a great day...

Running total (based on minimum denomination)
Bet: $286
Return: $335.30
Total: +$49.30 (-$18.00 from previous)

[Kitan]

Race 1:
#1 Monkey Jewellery lost in photos in his last two starts last season. Tough trip first off the layoff this time and should get a great trip in a pretty weak race. Price won’t be great, however.

#3 Helaku Knight clipped heels and stumbled on the far turn last time out. Closed well to be third in his last start over the course and distance.

#6 Sure Win Win didn’t put in the worst performance when taking some money on debut and had a tough trip last time out. A price to include underneath.

Race 3:
#1 California Levee was not disgraced at all in his Class 3 runs and now finds himself in a pretty average Class 4 event.

Race 4:
#9 Golden General just missed in his last try over the course and distance and has had some excuses then (wet track, HV, tough trip). Shouldn’t get any excuses in the trip from gate 6.

Race 5:
#8 Apex Top: Blew the start two starts ago so can ignore that, and his two runs before that weren’t bad. Faded last time but can be fitter from that here second off the layoff. Looks to get either an easy time on the lead or the perfect stalking trip here.

#1 Golden Four is very consistent, with his only poor recent run coming when he had a tough trip. Weight allowance with the apprentice can only help.

Race 6:
#4 Super Fast: Winner over 2000m in IRE finally showed something last time…trainer change and time off over the summer seemed to spark him up. That was over 1400m, so this distance should be more suitable.

The speed map has #5 Full Power potentially sitting three wide no cover, but there is very little speed in here so I think the apprentice will try to get him on the lead. Could be tough to run down from that position at a good price.

Race 10:
#7 California Rad took quite a few steps forward when the blinkers went on towards the end of last season. Has been racing exclusively at HV lately but should be suited by the expanses of ST and the price looks good.

PLAYS
R1 WIN 1
R1 EX 1/3,6
R1 TRI 1/3,6/2,3,4,6,8
R3 WP 1
R4 WP 9
R5 WP 8
R5 EX 1,8/1,8
R6 WP 4,5
R6 EX 4,5/4,5
R10 WP 7

Good luck!

[Kitan]

Originally Posted by Kitan

PLAYS
R1 WIN 1 4th @ 5-2 (didn't get clean run)
R1 EX 1/3,6
R1 TRI 1/3,6/2,3,4,6,8
R3 WP 1 3rd @ 6-1 ($4.50)
R4 WP 9 5th @ 12-1 (tough trip)
R5 WP 8 1st @ 7-1 ($17.20, $5.10)
R5 EX 1,8/1,8 8-1 ($89.70)
R6 WP 4,5 7th @ 11-1; 3rd @ 17-1 ($8.60)
R6 EX 4,5/4,5
R10 WP 7 1st @ 8-1 ($19.70, $5.00)

Best day of the season so far...

Running total (based on minimum denomination)
Bet: $326
Return: $485.10
Total: +$159.10 (+$109.80 from previous)