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#1
05-17-2019, 08:57 AM
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Pimlico Friday May 17th
Race 1:
#7 Cyclical: $14k sales purchase in Feb and was in for $25k in March, so the plunge isn't that concerning. Back to a dirt sprint after a failed turf route attempt. Probably too good for these. #10 Pigeon Creek: Was 7-1 against some of these rivals last time but came into that race a bit short on the worktab. First two starts weren't that bad, and he'll be big odds this time. #3 Simmard Shenanigan: Gets in light with the bug. #6 Queens Or Better Race 2: #5 Nicki de Nephew: Took some money off the layoff but got floated extremely wide into the first turn. Numbers need to lift but eligible to improve as a 4yo. #8 Family Tree: Expensive purchase thrown in for a tag here. Last wasn't that bad given he was 3 wide without cover the trip. Had only two works prior to his NA bow and only one further work before his subsequent start. Going to be the fittest he's been Stateside and decent odds to boot. #11 Boundary Pass #9 Rumson Rally Race 3: #5 Trapped N My Mind: Thrown to the wolves trying a route in a Stakes last out. Races prior to that had her sitting on a win. #3 Instinctive: Quick works for debut and noticeably attracts Irad. #8 Fleeterthan #6 Tobago Race 4: #2 Kukulkan: Finds ways to lose from seemingly commanding positions, but this could be his time as this race lacks depth. #9 Time Flies By #8 Railmaster #1 Love Me Thrice Race 5: #11 Disclude: Well-bred filly won well on debut and is a half to a Miss Preakness winner. Off the shelf for over a year but Pletcher is 9/14 (12 ITM) with 3yos in dirt sprints coming off a >180 day layoff after a maiden win. #5 Marvelous Martina: Nothing wrong with her sprint tries. Comes into this with two works whereas she had none prior to her last two starts. #8 The Aurelia Factor: Baffert another who hits at a strong clip in similar layoff situations to this. Connections only name them Aurelia if they can run... #4 Majestic Reason Race 6: #12 Don't Poke the Cat: Ran well enough sprinting last time and now steps back up to his favourite trip (4: 2-1-1). Also sports a win over the PIM turf. #8 Eons: Should have won on debut but the blinkers did the trick after a modest second-up run. Castellano remains. #5 Largent: Have to think he'll be an underlay based on the fact he was 8-1 on debut and got all his own way that day, but the same situation might pan out again here. Note a possible missed work shipping in from Florida. #16 Back to Back: Lots of turf breeding on the bottom, and the return to two-turns seems more suitable. Race 7: #3 Chalon: 6-5 ML won't make up for the $$ missed by her not holding on in the BC, but she's much the best here. Won a similar race at LRL off the layoff last year. Race 8: #2 Covfefe: Returned with a strong performance and looks to get a great trip from an inside post. Tough to beat. #5 Congrats Gal: Only losses came at Saratoga and then when dueling through a 21 1/5 quarter with Jaywalk. #12 Midnight Fantasy: Undefeated sprinting and can rate. Acid test today but she looks to have ability. #11 Fighting Mad: Underlay looming. Beaten up on small fields, although against older last time. Baffert only 1/11 (6 ITM) with 3yo fillies trying to repeat second off the layoff. Race 9: Had really liked #1 here... #5 Dogtag: Very competitive off 2yo form, but has every right to be better than that as a 3yo. #14 Souper Escape: Lots of class on the bottom, as the dam is a G1 dirt winner who is a half to a G1 turf winner in the UK. Ultra game in victory last time, but unlikely to receive as good as a trip (besides the bumping into the first turn) this time. #2 Nova Sol: G3 placed in France, but Chad only 1/13 (6 ITM) outside of NYRA with 3yos off a layoff having their first run in NA. #6 Makeme Dream #10 as a bomb underneath... Race 10: #7 Just Whistle: Steady improver who has some excuses in his lines. Dueled through fast splits in the Peter Pan, something had to have gone amiss in the June allowance given the time off, and didn't have much of a chance off a 49 half last time out. This is not a strong renewal of the Pimlico Special and I'm happy with the 33-1 fixed odds I've gotten overseas. #6 Cordmaker: His win two back showed he has ability around two-turns; it was a strong win with a sharp 36 and change final 3f. #8 Tenfold #13 You're to Blame Race 11: #6 Always Shopping: 2 for 2 around two-turns and at this distance. Pointed for this instead of the Oaks and rates a great chance. #8 Point of Honor: I don't question her talent, but what bothers me is the miles she's put on in the last few weeks, shipping from Florida to Kentucky to New York and now to Maryland. #9 Las Setas #7 Brill Race 12: #7 Oldies But Goodies: Scratches have really opened this race up. His form is as good as any other in here. #9 Completed Pass #2 Tricks to Doo Race 13: #6 Golden Award: Disappointed in the slop last time out. A return to her prior form makes her the one to beat. #1 Timeless Curls: With the shades on and the rail draw, she can take advantage of the distinct lack of pace in here. Sports a wire to wire win last year. #3 Gio Game: Does her best racing in paceless races. #5 Another Broad Race 14: #11 Nevisian Sunset: Turf suits more than dirt. Not disgraced in her last after dueling up front. #15 That'sthewaytodoit: Career best when trying the turf for the first time, which she's bred to handle. 3yo gets 11lbs from the top choice. #4 Burak: Turf races fit, but those were 1.5 years ago. #3 Leroy's Sweetypie: Rough going on a sealed track. May improve on the turf; sire has good grass stats. $0.60 Early Pick Five Race 2: 5, 8 Race 3: 3, 5 Race 4: 2, 9 Race 5: 5, 8, 11 Race 6: 5, 8, 12, 16 $57.60 $0.60 Early Pick Four Race 3: 3, 5 Race 4: 2, 9 Race 5: 4, 5, 8, 11 Race 6: 3, 5, 8, 12, 16 $48.00 $0.60 Late Pick Five Race 7: 3 Race 8: 2, 5, 12 Race 9: 2, 5, 6, 14 Race 10: 6, 7, 8, 13 Race 11: 6, 8, 9 $86.40 ... If the 3 loses in R7, wheel it back as a P4 beginning in R8. $0.60 Late Pick Four Race 11: 6, 8, 9 Race 12: 2, 7, 9 Race 13: 1, 3, 6 Race 14: 3, 4, 11, 15 $64.80 Good luck! Last edited by Kitan : 05-17-2019 at 09:46 AM. 
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