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  #21  
Old 06-09-2015, 08:01 AM
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Originally Posted by Kasept View Post
Regardless of the quality of his individual performances, and regardless of what he does in the future, American Pharoah’s sweep of the three classics is an achievement more notable than those of the 11 horses who did it before him.

Beyer's praise is so faint that he single's out American Pharoah's Triple Crown as the more impressive than the 11 that came before.
Notable and impressive are two different things.
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  #22  
Old 06-09-2015, 09:53 AM
Antitrust32 Antitrust32 is offline
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Originally Posted by GenuineRisk View Post
I dunno; that Beyer piece seems to be a textbook example of damning with faint praise.
I agree.. its by far my least favorite of all post race articles I've read.
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  #23  
Old 06-09-2015, 10:08 AM
Antitrust32 Antitrust32 is offline
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btw.. great show yesterday Steve. Are you going to have a write up? I always love how you recap big events.

Saturday was spectacular. So happy for all that got to be there.. and everyone watching from home. The emotion was very very intense. American Pharoah is one hell of an animal. That was a very impressive Belmont. Only one I've personally seen like it is Point Given's race (I started following horse racing in 1996 for perspective). It was so neat to see that horse pull away and know that it was really happening. I kept rewinding the coverage to re-watch the race.

My problem with the Beyer article is yes, this horse is another Secretariat, Affirmed and Seattle Slew. Of course there is never another horse like Secretariat. But American Pharoah has accomplished what they accomplished by becoming a triple crown winner. Also this horse is very similar to Seattle Slew in my opinion. I just don't understand the jab. Unless he is talking about their entire racing careers, which would be foolish because you can only really compare what you've seen so far.
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  #24  
Old 06-09-2015, 10:46 AM
freddymo freddymo is offline
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Originally Posted by Indian Charlie View Post
Notable and impressive are two different things.
Beyers take on ATR is the pace was slow AP had it his own way and the race was historically ordinary. He applauds the achievement but clearly thinks AP speed is ordinary for G1 horses. By doing this he suggests that all that his big Fig horses like Materialty and Frosted didnt fire, which is certainly plausible I guess.

CJ doesnt think the pace was slow and other figure makers seem to have a different take. All are plausible takes and Beyers take is certainly understandable and consistent with the math. IMO you have to weigh all the recaps with a grain of salt. I personally dont think the pace was slow and while Materiality maybe be finished his Derby was perceived very highly for his bad trip etc. and for you to just say he couldnt run reasonably fast for a 6f's 5 weeks after his OK derby is a bit of a reach for my palate. Again its racing and judging this stuff aint easy.

I think its fair to say Beyer doesnt think AP has ever run a really fast race to date.
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  #25  
Old 06-09-2015, 10:50 AM
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Also this horse is very similar to Seattle Slew in my opinion. I just don't understand the jab. Unless he is talking about their entire racing careers, which would be foolish because you can only really compare what you've seen so far.
Beyer later in the article cautions to reserve judgment on American Pharoah until his career is complete. Seeing how he is certain to retire at the end of the year, hopefully he doesn't continue to emulate Seattle Slew, who bombed in an tailored "appearance" race at Hollywood Park. (Secretariat also re-appeared post-TC in a "groomed" race--the Arlington Invitational). Seattle Slew seems to have had similar criticisms dogging his career, but at 4 he was afforded a huge opportunity to shut the naysayers down when he faced fellow Triple Crown winner Affirmed in the Marlboro Cup and delivered a knockout performance (not that beating a tired 3yo was unexpected). He followed it up with huge efforts in the important fall races at Belmont. Add in his near death experience during the previous winter and you have some nice elements to create a legend.

As for American Pharoah, a run at the Haskell-Travers double would be a feat no modern day TC ever accomplished. Affirmed won the Travers outright, but sawed off Alydar entering the far turn and was disqualified. As he won't be seen at 4, it will be nice to see the horse avoid appearance-fee races (although Monmouth tends to oblige) and focus on the prestige events this summer and fall.

Personally, I would love to see him attempt Easy Goer's late season campaign (i.e., Whitney, Travers, Woodward, JCGC), but I'm not sure if its even possible schedule-wise nowadays.
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  #26  
Old 06-09-2015, 11:31 AM
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Originally Posted by freddymo View Post
Beyers take on ATR is the pace was slow AP had it his own way and the race was historically ordinary.
The pace was indeed pretty relaxed and easy for AP. It usually is in the Belmont. Ordinary though? No.



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Originally Posted by freddymo View Post
He applauds the achievement but clearly thinks AP speed is ordinary for G1 horses. By doing this he suggests that all that his big Fig horses like Materialty and Frosted didnt fire, which is certainly plausible I guess.
Yeah, I find that pretty convenient for him to explain away just how truly historically bad his Florida Derby opinion is. It's really an offense to common sense, and I normally don't give a crap about what people's opinions are (in the sense of getting bent out of shape).

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Originally Posted by freddymo View Post
I personally dont think the pace was slow and while Materiality maybe be finished his Derby was perceived very highly for his bad trip etc. and for you to just say he couldnt run reasonably fast for a 6f's 5 weeks after his OK derby is a bit of a reach for my palate.
I personally felt his Derby trip was entirely overblown, though I can see why people feel the way they do, and I might be wrong.

The rest of that paragraph, I am confused by. He was pretty close up to the lead for at least half of the race, so, he did, in my eyes, fire and ran a decent enough race until he quit. He had five weeks to prepare for that effort? How is it a reach to say he couldn't prepare in five weeks to run 3/4's in 113 and change? That's workout speed. Maybe I'm not understanding your point.

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Originally Posted by freddymo View Post
I think its fair to say Beyer doesnt think AP has ever run a really fast race to date.
That's part of my problem. To me, it seems like he is lacking objectivity, which is a must when working with numbers, like he does. He's run several very fast races, but because he THINKS AP hasn't, he adjusts his numbers downwards.

Again, maybe I'm missing something, but using the Brooklyn to downgrade the Belmont seems pretty far fetched in this instance.
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  #27  
Old 06-09-2015, 12:40 PM
freddymo freddymo is offline
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My GUESS is the pace so solid not slow by any measure. While you can suggest Materiality had been gutted in Derby, and was rushed to even compete in these races, just discounting him as a bum who couldnt run a solid half when asked is mighty convenient. Then you have Moobi not looking to brush but certainly being asked and he makes up little to no ground. Then Frosted a solid Fig earner in Wood and "the other" horse out of Derby that ran at least the 3rd or 4th best race, off 5 weeks rest training great and looking the part he tries to stay in contact and does. I just cant believe the pace was slow, I think that is a judgement error on Beyers part but heck what do I know? I am sure he loves betting in the same pools as me and I am sure he is a better handicapper.

I think your point on the Florida Derby fig is valid I think it was a MUCH slower race then its credited for. It just doesnt pass the smell test. But Again I am sure the fig assigned falls well within the math and discipline which Beyer subscribes to.

The problem with thinking the trip was overblown is it sort of lends credence to Materialty being gutted in Derby and not being able to prompt a solid pace. I think its a little of each I think Materialty was heading into the TAP abyss but I still think he was freshened enough to be able to run a solid if not fast 6f's

Beyer doesn't think AP has proven he is fast YET and doesnt discount he can improve but and I quote "we pretty much know who AP is at this point".. Well I do too and I think he is friggin fastest, sound, and special.
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  #28  
Old 06-09-2015, 12:44 PM
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That first paragraph needs some translations Freddy.

But if I understood the first part, I in no way suggested he was gutted in the Derby.

I said I felt his trip trouble was overblown and wasn't the super equine effort it seemed to be made into.
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  #29  
Old 06-09-2015, 12:50 PM
freddymo freddymo is offline
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Originally Posted by Indian Charlie View Post
That first paragraph needs some translations Freddy.

But if I understood the first part, I in no way suggested he was gutted in the Derby.

I said I felt his trip trouble was overblown and wasn't the super equine effort it seemed to be made into.
If you think he ran well in Derby after a trip and bad post, then 5 weeks of freshening would lead me to believe he should have been able to run a solid 6f's when asked to press pace. If you believe his derby is overblown and he ran a cruddy 94 and that's all he had in tank after a big Florida derby then you can suggest he had entered the Pletcher hospital and its easier to believe he simply couldnt run fast early and the pace was slow
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  #30  
Old 06-09-2015, 12:54 PM
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I need a Google Freddy to Freddy to English translator.
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  #31  
Old 06-09-2015, 12:59 PM
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Originally Posted by Indian Charlie View Post

That's part of my problem. To me, it seems like he is lacking objectivity, which is a must when working with numbers, like he does. He's run several very fast races, but because he THINKS AP hasn't, he adjusts his numbers downwards.

Again, maybe I'm missing something, but using the Brooklyn to downgrade the Belmont seems pretty far fetched in this instance.
Why do you think it's far fetched? It's the way speed figures are calculated. Or do you mean that the Brooklyn figs should have been higher? That's a reasonable proposition, IMO.

If AP had gotten a 110 BSF for the Belmont, that pretty much forces a 106 for the top two finishers in the Brooklyn. (a half-sec = about 3 lengths; 3 lengths = about 3.5 BSF's at 1.5 miles). Coach Inge ran a 104 last time out. His next best in 9 starts was a 93 BSF. But giving a 106 for the Brooklyn wouldn't have seemed unreasonable to me.

Likewise, a 106 for V. E. Day doesn't seem in left field. V.E.Day earned a 102 winning the Travers last year. He earned BSF's of 93 and 95 in his remaining 2014 starts, but encountered enough trip trouble to push those figs well past 100, IMO. His only start in 2015 earned a 96 on grass. To me it's completely believable that he could run a 106 as a 4-yr-old.

So, just using the top 2 horses in the Brooklyn, it looks like the figs could have been higher. Beyer's team uses all the horses in the races, so maybe they thought there were compelling reasons for the lower figs. cmorioles apparently didn't feel that way? At any rate, I can understand how AP's low fig would be annoying to some.
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  #32  
Old 06-09-2015, 01:14 PM
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Originally Posted by Dunbar View Post
Why do you think it's far fetched? It's the way speed figures are calculated. Or do you mean that the Brooklyn figs should have been higher? That's a reasonable proposition, IMO.

If AP had gotten a 110 BSF for the Belmont, that pretty much forces a 106 for the top two finishers in the Brooklyn. (a half-sec = about 3 lengths; 3 lengths = about 3.5 BSF's at 1.5 miles). Coach Inge ran a 104 last time out. His next best in 9 starts was a 93 BSF. But giving a 106 for the Brooklyn wouldn't have seemed unreasonable to me.

Likewise, a 106 for V. E. Day doesn't seem in left field. V.E.Day earned a 102 winning the Travers last year. He earned BSF's of 93 and 95 in his remaining 2014 starts, but encountered enough trip trouble to push those figs well past 100, IMO. His only start in 2015 earned a 96 on grass. To me it's completely believable that he could run a 106 as a 4-yr-old.

So, just using the top 2 horses in the Brooklyn, it looks like the figs could have been higher. Beyer's team uses all the horses in the races, so maybe they thought there were compelling reasons for the lower figs. cmorioles apparently didn't feel that way? At any rate, I can understand how AP's low fig would be annoying to some.
I don't know that I can explain myself on this topic, on a message board. I find that I am lacking the ability to convey what I feel is wrong.

And it's not really that he got a low fig that I find annoying. It's the seemingly arbitrary use or non use of split variants to make a race fit what the figure makers think it should be.
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  #33  
Old 06-09-2015, 01:29 PM
freddymo freddymo is offline
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Originally Posted by Dunbar View Post
Why do you think it's far fetched? It's the way speed figures are calculated. Or do you mean that the Brooklyn figs should have been higher? That's a reasonable proposition, IMO.

If AP had gotten a 110 BSF for the Belmont, that pretty much forces a 106 for the top two finishers in the Brooklyn. (a half-sec = about 3 lengths; 3 lengths = about 3.5 BSF's at 1.5 miles). Coach Inge ran a 104 last time out. His next best in 9 starts was a 93 BSF. But giving a 106 for the Brooklyn wouldn't have seemed unreasonable to me.

Likewise, a 106 for V. E. Day doesn't seem in left field. V.E.Day earned a 102 winning the Travers last year. He earned BSF's of 93 and 95 in his remaining 2014 starts, but encountered enough trip trouble to push those figs well past 100, IMO. His only start in 2015 earned a 96 on grass. To me it's completely believable that he could run a 106 as a 4-yr-old.

So, just using the top 2 horses in the Brooklyn, it looks like the figs could have been higher. Beyer's team uses all the horses in the races, so maybe they thought there were compelling reasons for the lower figs. cmorioles apparently didn't feel that way? At any rate, I can understand how AP's low fig would be annoying to some.
I listened to Beyer very closely today. It's pretty clear he thinks AP is beating up on a lot of ordinary colts or catching fast colts when they arent firing, for me that's very unrealistic. I also heard him say it was a wonderful accomplishment. Whatever. By his measure(BSF) Rachel would have dusted AP off and beat him by 5l's in Preakness? I dont know, not sure I really care. Nobody can convince me the Florida Derby was a very fast race but Beyer believes it was.
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  #34  
Old 06-09-2015, 01:39 PM
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I need a Google Freddy to Freddy to English translator.
That's a fair to midland request.....
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  #35  
Old 06-10-2015, 10:35 AM
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Originally Posted by freddymo View Post
I listened to Beyer very closely today. It's pretty clear he thinks AP is beating up on a lot of ordinary colts or catching fast colts when they arent firing, for me that's very unrealistic. I also heard him say it was a wonderful accomplishment. Whatever. By his measure(BSF) Rachel would have dusted AP off and beat him by 5l's in Preakness? I dont know, not sure I really care.
This is one of the problems with the Triple Crown hoopla, and flavor-of-the-months in general, as it dismisses other great champions we witnessed. How quickly the Zenyatta circus erased the impact of Azeri on the racing landscape. That Harlem Globetrotter-like stalwart also took quite a bit of shine off the filly you just mentioned, Rachel Alexandra.

A quick review of Rachel Alexandra highlights one of the all time great campaigns not only in terms of accomplishment, but in terms of pace, final time, and field quality.

While we are inundated with quasi-physiological assessments of American Pharoah's thoracic-pelvic limb coupling and whispers of speed figure conspiracy theories, no such mumbo jumbo is needed when analyzing Rachel Alexandra's 3yo campaign.

Facile wins in the midwest in preps for the bigger dances parallel American Pharoah's romps at Oaklawn. The Kentucky Oaks was one for the ages, stalking Gabby's Golden Gal, from the same crew that brought you Firing Line and likewise coming off a blowout at Sunland Park, Rachel Alexandra disposed of her as she pleased and won by 20. Gabby's Golden Gal won a Grade 1 in her next start, and did so again at 4.

The Preakness saw RA lock horns with Big Drama, a subsequent BC Sprint winner and champion sprinter, then draw off and hold sway. Ironically, American Pharoah's sire, Pioneerof The Nile was seen with brief speed before pack-peddling and easing through the stretch---sound like Materiality to anyone? Perhaps Pioneerof The Nile's Santa Anita wins in the winter preps should be dismissed too, based on this one run. By the way, he never ran again.

The Mother Goose against fillies seems like a joke, with just 3 horses, but Flashing would go on to win two Grade 1s in the summer and Malibu Prayer won a Grade 1 at 4, so quality was not in question. Certainly the pace that was set was blazing. 1:08+ for 6f. RA won by nearly 20 again, in a stakes record.

They took it to her in the Haskell. A sloppy track. Munnings (sire of Om, who dusted American Pharoah first time out), fresh off huge sprint wins against both fellow 3yos and older horses engages RA immediately while Kent Desormeaux decides to put the pressure early from the inside down the backstretch to try and crack her facade. She won by 6.

Visually and time-wise, the Woodward was a letdown, but nevertheless she won and defeating older males in one of the prestige events on calendar was the only thing that could put a worthy cap on what she had done earlier in the year.

That she showed only flashes of the same brilliance at 4 is no matter. In 5 races at 3 she was tested in all ways by all types and could not be beaten.

American Pharoah could not be beaten, either, and so was able to achieve a rare feat, but the kitchen sink was hardly thrown at him...unless 2 for 9 Frosted and 2 for 7 Firing Line are worthy substitutes for all the things Rachel Alexandra overcame.
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  #36  
Old 06-10-2015, 10:40 AM
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By using Rollo logic, Munnings would have won this years triple crown because his son 'dusted' AP in their debuts, and AP is slow because his sire lost a race.
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  #37  
Old 06-10-2015, 10:49 AM
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Is it possible that AP's competition had smaller hearts?

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  #38  
Old 06-10-2015, 10:53 AM
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By using Rollo logic, Munnings would have won this years triple crown because his son 'dusted' AP in their debuts, and AP is slow because his sire lost a race.
I figured you would grab the bit and runoff with the little digressions, rather than the actual content, which centered on Rachel Alexandra's 3yo campaign. Nothing new there.

Hopefully, Freddy will bring more intelligence and focus to this discussion.
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  #39  
Old 06-10-2015, 11:42 AM
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Originally Posted by RolloTomasi View Post
I figured you would grab the bit and runoff with the little digressions, rather than the actual content, which centered on Rachel Alexandra's 3yo campaign. Nothing new there.

Hopefully, Freddy will bring more intelligence and focus to this discussion.
Funny.

You've been the one bringing the little digressions to the table.

Nothing new there at all.

At this point, I'd take Smooth Operator for intelligence and focus.
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  #40  
Old 06-10-2015, 12:16 PM
freddymo freddymo is offline
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Originally Posted by RolloTomasi View Post
I figured you would grab the bit and runoff with the little digressions, rather than the actual content, which centered on Rachel Alexandra's 3yo campaign. Nothing new there.

Hopefully, Freddy will bring more intelligence and focus to this discussion.
I loved Rachel like no filly/mare. Her campaign was stunning her Haskell was incredible and she is an all time filly Maybe and I mean maybe she is second behind Personal Ensign but I am splitting hairs. I never had any use for Zenyatta not because I didnt realize she was wonderful just because she was handled not to lose and save her Apple Blossom/BCC's she was to conservatively spotted(maybe that's why she lasted?).

I realize its impossible and kind of fruitless to guess who was faster but for the sake of pure conjecture and fun. I think she could never beat AP. Again its just an opinion and impossible to have any faith in.

As for the Beyer fig I agree its rock solid and guessed it the night before. Beyer has not been impressed with AP's races, he has been impressed with accomplishments. Kind of sounds like the ole Cigar rhetoric you know he wins but he never wins running fast. I think if Materialty would have won by a nose against AP or Frosted and either of those 2 were 3rd 5 .5 lengths back Beyer would have used 108/09 because it would have given more credence to the Florida Derby Fig. To me the fig is just about as relevant as my opinion on who would have won a hypothetical Preakness between AP and Rachel.
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