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  #21  
Old 04-30-2015, 10:22 AM
freddymo freddymo is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by philcski View Post
Wow, how good is that 4th race?
Isnt Carve going to get a honey of a trip behind Bradster and Rocket Time? almost Famous has a bit a of a look second off bench
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  #22  
Old 04-30-2015, 10:56 AM
Rudeboyelvis Rudeboyelvis is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by brianwspencer View Post
I wouldn't put much stock in that -- the splits seemed, if anything, a touch on the quick side throughout the day compared to most days there, and Stanford set the slowest half-mile split of the day. Even accounting for the longer 9f trip, it seemed pretty soft, considering that LA-bred horses going two turns were clocking :47.4 and :48 flat when those types would consistently go :49 or slower most days of the meet.

Not making figs and such, there is obviously room for error in the above opinion, but at no point on that whole card did I get the feeling that things were playing slowly -- if anything, a bit in the opposite direction, if that's worth anything.
I should have qualified that more clearly - I didn't find the track to be souped up like many big racing days - it was more fair than anything - so relative to what I had expected it, it seemed to me to be on the slowish side of fair. But again, that was just my impression, the first time ever being there live - I certainly appreciate your perspective.

I would suggest that it's difficult to gauge Stanford's half mile split against the day as he was essentially handed a very easy lead from the break. He seems to me to be a horse that wants no part of anything more than a mile, and may even better suited as a pressing-type sprinter - Can't blame the connections for taking a shot - they earned it - but also had to envision him not finishing close to last either...
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  #23  
Old 04-30-2015, 11:19 AM
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brianwspencer brianwspencer is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis View Post
I should have qualified that more clearly - I didn't find the track to be souped up like many big racing days - it was more fair than anything - so relative to what I had expected it, it seemed to me to be on the slowish side of fair. But again, that was just my impression, the first time ever being there live - I certainly appreciate your perspective.

I would suggest that it's difficult to gauge Stanford's half mile split against the day as he was essentially handed a very easy lead from the break. He seems to me to be a horse that wants no part of anything more than a mile, and may even better suited as a pressing-type sprinter - Can't blame the connections for taking a shot - they earned it - but also had to envision him not finishing close to last either...
Got ya, and I totally agree on all counts.

A couple of early races were super fast early for the level, but all in all even if the track was playing a bit "fast," it was definitely not as fast as you'd often expect from a track on a big day. Maybe a few lengths faster than normal, but still slow in relation to what you see in some other places.
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  #24  
Old 04-30-2015, 11:45 AM
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Pletcher's Stanford 50/50 for Derby
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  #25  
Old 04-30-2015, 01:15 PM
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ateamstupid ateamstupid is offline
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Stanford out, Frammento is in. First time the '21' saddlecloth will be used since they capped the field.
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  #26  
Old 04-30-2015, 01:29 PM
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MaTH716 MaTH716 is offline
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Originally Posted by ateamstupid View Post
Stanford out, Frammento is in. First time the '21' saddlecloth will be used since they capped the field.
OK, I now have to move the X I had through Stanford in to Frammento's column.
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  #27  
Old 04-30-2015, 01:48 PM
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knickslions2 knickslions2 is offline
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Frammento is a good superfecta add on. Stanford was going to be pace factor for sure and probably finish near last.
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  #28  
Old 04-30-2015, 01:53 PM
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casp0555 casp0555 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ateamstupid View Post
Stanford out, Frammento is in. First time the '21' saddlecloth will be used since they capped the field.
and AP moves to the winless post 17...........
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  #29  
Old 04-30-2015, 01:53 PM
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pmayjr pmayjr is offline
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who gets the mount? Nakatani?
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  #30  
Old 04-30-2015, 02:52 PM
Rudeboyelvis Rudeboyelvis is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ateamstupid View Post
Stanford out, Frammento is in. First time the '21' saddlecloth will be used since they capped the field.
Lavender, with dark blue numbers/letters

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  #31  
Old 05-01-2015, 12:04 PM
Port Conway Lane Port Conway Lane is offline
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Projected derby favoritism based on the oaks derby double payout per dollar from #7 in first leg
American Pharoah28
Dortmund40
Frosted86
Carpe Diem91
Firing Line95
Mubtaahij110
Materiality117
Upstart148
International Star195
American Pharoah and Dortmund are clearly 1 and 2.
Frosted projects to be a close 3rd choice over Carpe Diem
Firing Line and Mubtaahij currently have a clear edge over Materiality
Upstart figures a slight edge over International Star.

Last edited by Port Conway Lane : 05-01-2015 at 05:26 PM.
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  #32  
Old 05-01-2015, 12:13 PM
robfla robfla is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane View Post
Projected derby favoritism based on the oaks derby double
American Pharoah
Dortmund
Frosted
Carpe Diem
Firing Line
Mubtaahij
Materiality
Upstart
International Star
American Pharoah and Dortmund are clearly 1 and 2.
Frosted projects to be a close 3rd choice over Carpe Diem
Firing Line and Mubtaahij currently have a clear edge over Materiality
Upstart figures a slight edge over International Star.
MUBTAAHIJ is getting a lot of double money for his odds
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  #33  
Old 05-01-2015, 12:30 PM
Port Conway Lane Port Conway Lane is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by robfla View Post
MUBTAAHIJ is getting a lot of double money for his odds
Yeah, I guess he's the wiseguy horse.
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  #34  
Old 05-01-2015, 12:39 PM
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FATPIANO FATPIANO is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane View Post
Projected derby favoritism based on the oaks derby double
American Pharoah
Dortmund
Frosted
Carpe Diem
Firing Line
Mubtaahij
Materiality
Upstart
International Star
American Pharoah and Dortmund are clearly 1 and 2.
Frosted projects to be a close 3rd choice over Carpe Diem
Firing Line and Mubtaahij currently have a clear edge over Materiality
Upstart figures a slight edge over International Star.
where can I find these double prices? thanks
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  #35  
Old 05-01-2015, 01:17 PM
Port Conway Lane Port Conway Lane is offline
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Any ADW should have them. I use twinspires.
Here is a link to current derby odds, little help at this time with the small pool.
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/racing-...erby-live-odds
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  #36  
Old 05-01-2015, 01:26 PM
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Sightseek Sightseek is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane View Post
Any ADW should have them. I use twinspires.
Here is a link to current derby odds, little help at this time with the small pool.
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/racing-...erby-live-odds
Wow, some interesting odds there so far.
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  #37  
Old 05-02-2015, 11:44 AM
outofthebox outofthebox is offline
Washington Park
 
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Competitive edge sparkling mile..Quality colt..Met mile?
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  #38  
Old 05-02-2015, 11:59 AM
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Dunbar Dunbar is offline
The Curragh
 
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With 7.3 million in the win pool, AP is 3.3-1. Dort is 4.4-1.

--Dunbar
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  #39  
Old 05-02-2015, 03:51 PM
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Sightseek Sightseek is offline
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Mark Casse is unstoppable today.
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Tod Marks Photo - Daybreak over Oklahoma
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  #40  
Old 05-02-2015, 05:07 PM
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Danzig Danzig is offline
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Win bets on frosted, carpet diem, mubtaahij, used frammento, Danzig moon, upstart, war story and far right underneath. Seems like a long shot always hits the board, so figured I'd give it a whirl.
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