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Old 07-15-2019, 09:26 PM
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Default 7/17: Saratoga Steeplechase Race 1

Saratoga steeplechase is back!

The part of Saratoga racing that some people love to hate with the phrase “I can’t bet that race,” – uttered by several prominent racegoers including racing analyst Andy Serling and artist Michael Gheraghty. When I asked Michael why he doesn’t bet he said “the horses leave the ground and can fall down.”

Yes, horses do leave the ground and can fall, but last year there were no fallers from 38 runners in 6 races. The National Steeplechase Association tries to put the best horses on display at Saratoga by enforcing the following restrictions: no apprentice riders, no maidens, no maiden claiming hurdle winners unless they have won again in open company over hurdles, no starters that have fallen in 2 of their last 5 races over hurdles and the last jump is on the backstretch – 3/8ths of a mile from the finish line. In addition, runners must have a top 3 lifetime finish in a hurdle race.

Why all the restrictions? – So Saratoga can showcase the best and most consistent hurdle runners over this year’s 9 scheduled races.

What does this mean – generally favorites run well and win at a slightly higher winning percentage (38%) compared with flat runners (33%).

So why not give it a try and make a bet this year. 2019 Saratoga hurdle races are not the same races as we grew up on or even 5 years ago – they are safer and more consistent than ever before.

Trainer Jack Fisher holds a strong hand in every race he enters. Fisher won the training title last year with 22 winners and already has 24 winners this year. What? Yes, it’s true. As a result, Fisher runners will be favored in most of the races at Saratoga. Jockey Mike Mitchell has 1st call on Fisher runners.

Today’s race is 2 1/16th miles over 8 fences for non-winners of 2 lifetime over hurdles.

Nashville runners from the races on May 11th are the ones to consider.

#5 Renown and #6 Whitman’s Poetry have the highest NSA rating at 119. #1 Gaye Breeze, #3 Markhan, #4 Repeat Repeat, #8 Cite all have a 116 rating. The others are rated 113 or less.

The races at Nashville had 13 jumps compared with only 8 today. In race 1 at Nashville, #6 Whitman’s Poetry was closing fast and next to #8 Cite when he fell over the last. The trackman’s note where #8 Cite was in front was after the 12th fence with another jump and a little over a 1/8th of a mile to go. Frontrunner #4 Renown was on fumes, tiring badly when he stumbled over the 12th fence. In race 5, #3 Markham ran comfortably stalking the pace and drew off to an easy win. The 2nd runner in race 5, Snap Decision (Fisher), came back to win wire to wire over jumps at Monmouth in the fastest time of the day.

#6 Whitman’s Poetry gets a weight break at 148. Generally, 1 pound is a 1 length advantage going over 2 miles. #3 Markham spotted the field 8 lengths from the start running in the Parx flat race because it was a flag start was 3 wide on all 3 turns and still won easy.

Race shape will have #4 Repeat Repeat going to the front and play catch me if you can. #5 Renown will press the front runner early, with #3 Markham, #6 Whitman’s Poetry and #8 Cite drafting in the next flight. #3,6,8 will all try to get position to make the first run down the backstretch the final time, with #3 Markham and #6 Whitman’s Poetry pulling away to the wire.

The top picks are #3 Markham and #6 Whitman’s Poetry. Play a key with both 3-6 over in tris and supers with #4 Repeat Repeat and #5 Renown underneath.

Good Luck!
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