7/12: Saratoga (Day 2; Forbidden Apple)

[Kasept]

SARATOGA


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: MCLM/$20k, 3+, 9f (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #3 Derby Memories 6-1 WON ($8.60)
Next Best: #5 French Revolution 8-5 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Oso Negro 2-1 2nd
Super Add: #2 Legion Storm 9-2 3rd


2nd: NY-MSW, 3+, 9f-OFF THE TURF (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #13 Daddy Knows 1-1 WON ($3.50)
Next Best: #1a Overland 8-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Curlin's Legacy 20-1 7th
Super Add: #6 Crazy Life 9-2 3rd


3rd: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Dream Passage 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #3 Complicit 8-5 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Conquest Hardcandy 4-1 WON ($10.40)
Super Add: #1a Pauseforthecause 6-1 5th


4th: CLM, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #7 Orpheus 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Soul P Say 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #9 Big Muddy 3-1 WON ($7.40)
Super Add: #4 Kahramani 5-1 7th


5th: MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P6, P3, DD)

Three first crop sires involved here, with Summer Front (Apurate/Pletcher) 1 for his first 6 runners, Tapiture (Lotta Ott/Asmussen) 5 for 15 (!) and Lea (Vast/Mott) 1 for 10..

Most Likely: #4 Lotta Ott 3-1 4th
Best Value: #6 Vast 6-1 WON ($27.80)
Next Best: #1 Apurate 7-1 7th
Exotics Use: #2 Good Shabbos 5-2 2nd


P5 Grid:

1: 3-5-8 (A), - (B), 2 (C)
2: 13 (A), - (B), 1 (C)
3: 3-4-6 (A), 1-5 (B), 7 (C)
4: 3-7 (A), - (B), 9 (C)
5: 4-6 (A), 1-2-3 (B), 7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x1x5x2x5 = 150 x .50 = $75
All A's: 3x1x3x2x2 = 36 x .50 = $18

$0.50 Pick-5 (3/2,3,4,5,8,12,13/6/9/6) Paid $1,159.25 (A-A-A-C-A) ~ $54


P4 Grid:

2: 1-13 (A), - (B), 6-10 (C)
3: 3-4-6 (A), 1-5 (B), 7 (C)
4: 3-7 (A), - (B), 9 (C)
5: 1-4-6 (A), 2-3 (B), 7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x5x2x5 = 100 x .50 = $50
All A's: 2x3x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

$0.50 Pick-4 (2,3,4,5,8,12,13/6/9/6) Paid $273.00 (A-A-C-A) ~ $48


6th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-OFF THE TURF (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Super Dude 4th
Next Best: #2 Heavy Roller 6th
Exotics Use: #1e Repole entry WON/2nd ($6.50)


7th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 5.5f-OFF THE TURF (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Filly Dilly WON ($5.90)
Next Best: #15 Saloon Girl 2nd
Exotics Use: #16 Trouble for Skylar 3rd
Super Add: #3 Citizen Matzo 4th


8th: NY-OC/N1X, 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Doups Point 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Fiery Opal 6-1 WON ($10.60)
Next Best: #2 Dreamzapper 3-1 5th


9th: Forbidden Apple (G3), 4+, 1m-IT (DD)

Terrific betting race, especially if you want to go against Voodoo Song. Shug-ah Bear seemed to light up Tuesday when I asked him about Doctor Mounty and though Johnny will need to work out a trip from the #10, footing is typically better on/near the crown when there's been rain. Worth a key at double digit odds..

Best Value: #10 Doctor Mounty 15-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Made You Look 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Offering Plan 6-1 7th
Super Add: #2 First Premio 10-1 10th


10th: NY-MCLM/$40k, F&M-3+, 5.5f-OFF THE TURF

Most Likely: #5 Abby Normal 4th
Next Best: #2 Fight Night 2nd
Exotics Use: #15 Scarlet's Command 6th


P5 Grid:

6: 2-3 (A), - (B), 1 (C)
7: 9-15 (A), - (B), 3-16 (C)
8: 6 (A), 7 (B), 2 (C)
9: 2-4-6-10 (A), 1-5-7-8 (B), 3-9 (C)
10: 2-5 (A), - (B), 15 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x2x2x8x2 = 128 x .50 = $64
All A's: 2x2x1x4x2 = 32 x .50 = $16


P4 Grid:

7: 9-15 (A), 3-16 (B), - (C)
8: 6-7 (A), - (B), 2 (C)
9: 2-4-6-8-10 (A), 1-5-7 (B), 3-9 (C)
10: 2-5 (A), - (B), 15 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x8x2 = 128 x .50 = $64
All A's: 2x2x5x2 = 40 x .50 = $20


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

SAR SCR/CHG'S

2nd - 1-2-3-4-5-8-12...
3rd - 2...
6th - 7-8-9-10-11-12...
7th - 1-2-4-7-8-10-11-12...
8th - 3-5...
10th - 1-4-6-7-9-10-11-12-13-16.

[hi_im_god]

In the 10th, Abby Normal is the 5.

[ontheoutside]

played all your most likely and best value all 20 to win
today
today most likely bet 140 got back 95
best value bet 80 got back 360
total today 220 bet 455 won
yesterday
most likely bet 140 won 200
best value bet 180 won 390
total yesterday bet 320 won 590

total combined after 2 days bet 540 won 1045