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#1
07-11-2019, 03:59 AM
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7/11: Saratoga (Opening Day)
SARATOGA ~ OPENING DAY
POST-SCRATCHES 1st: CLM/N3L, 3+, 11.5f (P5, P3, DD) Most Likely: #2 Armament 3-1 WON ($11.40) Best Value: #3 Blurred Line 10-1 3rd Next Best: #7 Real Dan 5-2 4th Exotics Use: #5 Fed Fever 12-1 7th 2nd: MSW, 3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD) If rain hits it won't be until later, so make a note to yourself to keep a lookout for FTS (first time starter) Off the Record (MTO today) from Brisset when he turns up in a spot soon. May be a very good. horse. And you already know that MTO Ahead of Plan has talent.. Most Likely: #2 Sayaaf 6-5 WON ($3.80) Best Value: #3 Sneakiness 8-1 7th Next Best: #12 Declined 4-1 4th Exotics Use: #4 Hurricane Jake 8-1 6th 3rd: ALW/N1X, 3+, 9f (P3, DD) Excellent ALW set going 9 clicks with trio of lightly raced sophs Walkoff (Pletcher), Growth Engine (C. Brown) & The Rock Says (Hough) facing off against group of hard-hitters. Potomac & The Rock Says look to vie for lead and note that Luis Saez sides with The Rock Says over 8x winner Vincento. If either of the point players get away with soft early fractions, they'll be tough to catch late.. Most Likely: #7 The Rock Says 4-1 3rd Best Value: #2 Walkoff 5-1 5th Next Best: #4 Potomac 2-1 4th Exotics Use: #6 Growth Engine 5-2 2nd 4th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD) Most Likely: #5 Gosilently 9-2 5th Best Value: #8 Bemma's Boy 12-1 3rd Next Best: #2 Local Hero 3-1 WON ($5.90) Exotics Use: #6 Wilderness Gate 10-1 7th 5th: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P6, P3, DD) Most Likely: #3 Ghostghostghost 5-1 6th Best Value: #6 Impazible Donna 12-1 2nd Next Best: #9 Funfetti 7-2 3rd Exotics Use: #7 Keypit 12-1 5th P4 Grid: 2: 2-3 (A), - (B), - (C) 3: 1-2-4-6-7 (A), - (B), - (C) 4: 2-5-8 (A), - (B), 1-7 (C) 5: 3 (A), - (B), 6-7-9 (C) All A's 2x5x3x1 = $30 ($15 for .50) C Backups: $55 6th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 5.5f-T (P5, G/S, P3, DD) Most Likely: #9 Pipes 7-2 8th Next Best: #1a (POE) Veterans Beach 3-1 2nd Best Value: #8 Light the Posse 10-1 WON ($31.40) Exotics Use: #4 Fled SCR 7th: NY-OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 9f-IT (P4, P3, DD) Never be afraid to try prices in these NY-bred turf ALW's. They invariably produce some of the summer's juiciest results.. Best Value: #10 Wegetdamunnys 6-1 WON ($7.70) Next Best: #4 Giant Zinger 7-5 3rd Exotics Use: #11 Classic Lady 5-1 2nd Super Add: #3 Wish Upon 12-1 4th 8th: Schuylerville (G3), 2yo-F, 6f (P3, DD) Looks like a madcap scramble on the front end, which gives pause to figure out who might sit and pounce.. Best Value: #9 Kiss the Girl 6-1 2nd Next Best: #5 Comical 5-1 WON ($8.20) Exotics Use: #1 Shippy 2-1 3rd Super Add: #6 Lady Fatima 12-1 8th 9th: Quick Call (G3), 3yo, 5.5f-T (DD) Five surface switchers ~ and the possibility we see rain by this point ~ complicate this group.. Most Likely: #4 Listing 4-1 WON ($4.80) Next Best: #10 Sombeyay 6-1 4th Best Value: #2 Elektronic 10-1 2nd Exotics Use: #6 Call Paul 5-2 7th 10th: MCLM/$40k, F&M-3+, 8.5f-OFF THE TURF OFF THE TURF: 13/SCR-7/SCR-12 WON ($4.10) Good luck! Steve
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 07-11-2019 at 06:05 PM. 
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#2
07-11-2019, 09:11 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 07-11-2019 at 10:54 AM.
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#3
07-11-2019, 10:05 AM
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Good luck Steve. Looking forward to good meet.
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#5
07-11-2019, 05:27 PM
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Thanks Steve.
Your including Light the Posse gave me confidence that I wasn't off my rocker and worth taking a shot. Even though don't get to cheer for nice P5 payout I am more than happy with a hit to start the meet. Jul 11, 2019 12:43 PM Bet 25089271923290 Saratoga, Race 6, $0.60 PK5 8 / 4,5,10,11 / 1,5 / 4 / 5,9 $9.60
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#6
07-11-2019, 05:46 PM
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Quote:
__________________
"Relax, alright? Don't try to strike everybody out. Strikeouts are boring; besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls. It's more democratic."-- Crash Davis
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#7
07-11-2019, 09:06 PM
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very nice today steve
i decided to do something and see how it worked, i took your most likely and best value bets and bet 20 on each to win
so based on 2 dollard your most likely you bet 14 got back 20 your best value bet 18 won 39 this is based on 2 dollar bets total 32 bet 59 won so i ended up plus 270 fun day
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#8
07-12-2019, 04:55 AM
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AD, Mike, Tom..
Thanks.. Great work on your end! Light the Posse was the very definition of the Best Value horse, one that you need to utilize even if you don't necessarily expect him to win. Started great multi sequences including the $400 P3 with 'Munnys' & Comical. Damp but fun start to the season. Hope everyone did well!
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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