Derby field, where they should go, Preakness possibles

[Kasept]

1 Animal Kingdom
2 Dialed In
3 Midnight Interlude
4 Mucho Macho Man
5 Shackleford
6 Astrology
7 King Congie
8 Flashpoint
9 Mr. Commons
10 Sway Away
11 Norman Asbjornson
12 Dance City
13 Concealed Identity
14 Isn't He Perfect
__________________________________________________ ______________

15 Saratoga Red

[slotdirt]

A few days late, but I wasn't sure anybody had posted this. Crist on the Derby pace:

http://www.drf.com/news/hard-make-se...cky-derby-pace

[Kasept]

Ruler On Ice Out; Concealed Identity Likely In

RULER ON ICE – George and Lori Hall’s Ruler On Ice isn’t likely to run in Saturday’s Preakness Stakes, trainer Kelly Breen said Monday morning. “He’s fine. I haven’t talked to the owners yet, but I don’t believe we’re going to make the Preakness. I’ll talk to them later today and try to see what’s best for the horse. It’s a long year. We might think about the Belmont, but I’m not sure,” Breen said. “He came out of that last race with low blood, and we’re just trying to get him pumped up right now.” Ruler On Ice finished second as the 3-2 favorite in the Federico Tesio Stakes at Pimlico on May 7.


CONCEALED IDENTITY – The Federico Tesio Stakes winner is “80-20” to run in Saturday’s Preakness, said Linda Gaudet, who owns the son of 2004 Derby and Preakness winner Smarty Jones in partnership with Morris Bailey.
With the defection of Ruler On Ice Monday morning, the Bowie Training Center-based Concealed Identity moved into the prospective Preakness field, which is limited to 14 horses.

“We’re very realistic. We’re shooting for the stars, but other than the horses from the Derby – the 1-2-3-4 finishers that are coming – we’re on the same page with the other horses,” said Gaudet, the wife of trainer Eddie Gaudet. “The horse has run very well at Pimlico and has done everything we’ve asked.”

Concealed Identity, who won the Maryland Juvenile Championship last year, was winless in three starts this year before being sent around two turns at Pimlico on April 15, when he won an entry-level allowance by more than three lengths. The Maryland-bred gelding came right back on May 7 to score a two-length victory over favored Ruler On Ice in the Tesio.

“We don’t have to ship. The horse has run well at Pimlico, so that’s always been an advantage,” Gaudet said. “Eddie hasn’t had a horse in the Preakness before and they don’t come along very often. Is he a superstar? Probably not, but he’s a nice little horse. It’s an opportunity we might take advantage of. It’s home; it’s close; he’s good; we’re all a little excited.” Sheldon Russell will retain the mount, said Gaudet.

[dalakhani]

Does anybody have any thoughts on Mr. Commons? I want to use him on Saturday and I hear his works are promising along with the fact that it is Shirreffs.

Any buzz?

[pweizer]

This DRF story tells you all you need to know about the new faces:

http://www.drf.com/news/who-can-beat...rans-have-edge

The money quote: Among the newcomers, Watchmaker has Saratoga Red at the shortest odds (10-1).

Paul

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by pweizer

This DRF story tells you all you need to know about the new faces:

http://www.drf.com/news/who-can-beat...rans-have-edge

The money quote: Among the newcomers, Watchmaker has Saratoga Red at the shortest odds (10-1).

Paul

Doesn't that have to be a misprint? I couldn't believe it when I saw it.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

Does anybody have any thoughts on Mr. Commons? I want to use him on Saturday and I hear his works are promising along with the fact that it is Shirreffs.

Any buzz?

Turf horse. Only dirt starts he beat a Cal bred ex-claimer by a desperate head, then ran a weakening 3rd with a ground saving trip behind horses that ended up 16th and 19th in the Kentucky Derby.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Doesn't that have to be a misprint? I couldn't believe it when I saw it.

Saratoga Red didnt run a lick on derby day but was a morning glory for the 2 weeks prior.

[pweizer]

Saratoga Red should be at least 100-1 in my opinion.

Paul

[dalakhani]

I am getting the feeling that you guys aren't on board with the Mr. Commons thing. Where is DrugS when you need him? You know he would be all over shirreffs in this spot.

Anything look promising here?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

I am getting the feeling that you guys aren't on board with the Mr. Commons thing. Where is DrugS when you need him? You know he would be all over shirreffs in this spot.

Anything look promising here?

I like him more than a little. Shirreffs was eager to get him into Derby, and that's hardly a situation you would expect him to be eager about without cause.

[dalakhani]

Thanks Steve! His last work seemed promising.

[NTamm1215]

I think Mr. Commons is Midnight Interlude 2.0. Basically everyone who bet on Midnight Interlude was banking on the Baffert factor. It's sort of the same thing everyone will do with Mr. Commons being trained by Shirreffs. There's very little about Mr. Commons' dirt races that would make me think he can win the Preakness.

The horses he faced in his allowance win were awful and have proven so in subsequent starts. The SA Derby did not exactly hold up as a positive race given the Derby efforts of Midnight Interlude and Comma to the Top. Indian Winter is another run-back from the SA Derby and he was a well-beaten 4th in the Derby Trial.

Artie Schiller has one stakes winner in his first crop, Bear's Chill who won the Queenston at Woodbine. His two other stakes placings this year were a 3rd place finish by Parting Words in the Appalachian and Subtle Irony in a stake at Beulah Park. At this point Artie is well behind flashy first crop sires like War Front.

Mr. Commons has a bright future on turf, as Rollo alluded to, and is still tough to like on dirt. He is almost certain to be an underlay, especially when you have an opinion like I do, which is that he should be a minimum of 30-1.

[dalakhani]

Thanks Nick. Okay last stab. I watched the replay of the Arkansas derby and in hindsight, Dance City ran quite a race. He is bothered in the stretch and of all of the early speed, he is the only one that was there in the end.

Ramon gets the call for the Preakness and with any sort of improvement this horse has a real shot. I know the pedigree is a little bit speedy on top (city zip) but the female side might just carry him far enough.

Crazy?

[Sightseek]

It is interesting that the negatives said about Nehro are that the Preakness would be the 4th race in 8 weeks, yet one of the biggest complaints about modern racing is that they don't run enough.

[pweizer]

Dance City has the best chance of the new shooters. I really want to bet against Animal Kingdom but am having a hard time finding any legitimate reason to do so.

Paul

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

Thanks Nick. Okay last stab. I watched the replay of the Arkansas derby and in hindsight, Dance City ran quite a race. He is bothered in the stretch and of all of the early speed, he is the only one that was there in the end.

Ramon gets the call for the Preakness and with any sort of improvement this horse has a real shot. I know the pedigree is a little bit speedy on top (city zip) but the female side might just carry him far enough.

Crazy?

I think anyone who's not giving Dance City a big chance is overlooking how strong a race he ran in the Ark Derby. He ran extremely well and if you haven't watched the race in a while it almost becomes mind boggling that he was beaten only just over a length.

His damside is typical of a Ned Evans homebred. His dam was a 3x route winner and has already produced 3 other route winners. City Zip, of course, is a half to Ghostzapper and has produced numerous route stakes winners on turf and dirt. If Dance City gets tired late it will be because he had to chase very fast fractions, not because of his pedigree IMO.

I like Dance City.

[intense]

Am I crazy thinking Shackleford can hold on this time w/the shorter distance? he held strong with all of them rolling in at the end on Derby day.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by intense

Am I crazy thinking Shackleford can hold on this time w/the shorter distance? he held strong with all of them rolling in at the end on Derby day.

I think he's a bad bet on Saturday. He's a game little horse and having bet him in the Derby, he gave me a lot of juice, but the bottom line is he couldn't have had an easier trip in the Derby and he still had no answer for Animal Kingdom or Nehro in the last furlong. He's going to have to (a.) hope those two don't show up (literally in Nehro's case) and (b.) almost certainly deal with considerably more pace pressure than he saw in Louisville. Add to that the fact that you could have had him at 60-1 in the FL Derby and 23-1 last Saturday, while he'll be less than 10-1 in the Preakness, and he'll have to beat me.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I
His damside is typical of a Ned Evans homebred. His dam was a 3x route winner and has already produced 3 other route winners. City Zip, of course, is a half to Ghostzapper and has produced numerous route stakes winners on turf and dirt. If Dance City gets tired late it will be because he had to chase very fast fractions, not because of his pedigree IMO.

I want Dance City to be an also-ran/bridesmaid in the Preakness, Dwyer, and Jim Dandy so I can get a decent price when he makes his turf debut in the National Racing Hall of Fame Stakes at Saratoga.