'17 CROWN TRAIL THREAD: Always Dreaming; Cloud Computing; Tapwrit

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

I don't see it that way, but OK.

It's s close group.

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

Cloud Computing feels like a very likely winner of the Preakness.

Maybe watch his last two races? He isn't much horse...at least yet.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

Besides that Andy likes him why? There are others that look better.

Even I wouldn't make a stupid comment calling Cloud Computing a "likely" Preakness winner but I'm not sure he isn't the third likeliest winner behind Always Dreaming and Classic Empire.

His Gotham was very strong and he has legit excuses in the Wood. I think he will run very well in Baltimore, and probably outrun his odds, which hopefully can get him there.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

His Gotham was very strong and he has legit excuses in the Wood. I think he will run very well in Baltimore, and probably outrun his odds, which hopefully can get him there.

isnt he going to be third choice? Wont he be about 8/1?

[richard burch]

Originally Posted by Kasept

@Steve_Byk No @PreaknessStakes for Malagacy per Todd Pletcher; Master Plan returns to Belmont this morning for Peter Pan/@BelmontStakes @TheNYRA..

Pletcher running Malagacy against the derby winner is dangerous. Todd has a big pair of...


...they just got a little smaller but much smarter!

[richard burch]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

I think those horses suck in context, really, I do. Classic Empire is the only one with talent but obviously cant put it all together.

Well at the end of the year lets look at the top 5 finishers from the derby, preakness and belmont from this year and 2015 and see who did better.

so far we have in 2016:

always dreaming
looking at lee
battle of midway
classic empire
Practical Joke



vs.

A.P.
Firing Line
Dortmund
Frosted
Danzig Moon
Materiality

[richard burch]

Originally Posted by Kasept

5/20/17 - Preakness Stakes

Always Dreaming (Pletcher/Velazquez)
Classic Empire (Casse/Leparoux)*
Hence (Asmussen/Geroux)
Lookin At Lee (Asmussen/Lanerie)
Gunnevara (Sano/M. Smith)
Royal Mo (Shirreffs/Stevens)
Senior Investment (McPeek/Hill)
Cloud Computing (Brown/Castellano)
Conquest Mo Money (Hernandez/Carreno)
Multiplier (Walsh/Graham)

A.D. is going to smoke this field.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by pweizer

Other than Classic Empire at the start, what major trouble did horses have in this race? I really didn't see too many bad trips and would love some insight on things I may have missed.

Paul

Paul, I'm mostly going on what the race chart says. The chart comments took over an hour to show up. They even put up the 13th race before adding the Derby chart. I assume the comments were the result of multiple views of the race.

Here are the ones that I thought had at least some level of excuse: (the added bold emphasis is mine)

GIRVIN, bumped and in tight at the start, settled off the pace, moved up off the rail leaving the far turn, was checked sharply and bumped in traffic near the five-sixteenths then failed to seriously recover.

TAPWRIT was forced into tight quarters by IRISH WAR CRY at the break, steadied off heels in the opening furlong, gained while being brushed between foes near the five-sixteenths, altered to the fence in the lane and kept trying.

GUNNEVERA was jammed up at the break and bumped,regrouped to save ground early, angled back out nearing the backstretch, entered the far turn five wide, brushed with TAPWRIT past the five sixteenths, came sixwide for the drive, was floated out further in mid stretch then failed to seriously to sustain.

HENCE, in tight at the break, settled well back,steadied off heels leaving the five sixteenths, swung wide for the drive but failed to muster up the needed kick.

MCCRAKEN was jostled hard soon after the break, recovered and settled four wide, gained quickly when put to pressure leaving the half
milemarker, continued on into the lane, was bumped and carried out in mid stretch then came up empty.

PATCH chased off the rail, edged up between rivals leaving the far turn, was checked and bounced around with GIRVIN near the five sixteenths causing him to lose any chance and came up empty.

IRAP was bumped when a victim of the melee soon after the break, regrouped to chase three and four wide, steadied near the five sixteenths and weakened.

A lot of this is pretty much inevitable in a 20-horse stampede. I don't think any of these trips made it impossible for a superior horse to win. And all of these horses finished 10 or more lengths behind Always Dreaming. But adding these trips to dealing with the barrage of mud in the face that all besides the front runners had to deal with, plus the fact that some of them were probably uncomfortable running on that surface, there's plenty of room IMO for some of these horses to look substantially better next time out.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

isnt he going to be third choice? Wont he be about 8/1?

I'm not a ML maker. I think he's probably, at worst, the third likeliest winner.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

isnt he going to be third choice? Wont he be about 8/1?

To expand on that....TC races tend to be bet less efficiently than regular races due to a higher percentage of less sophisticated money.

[Holybull1]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

GUNNEVERA was jammed up at the break and bumped,regrouped to save ground early, angled back out nearing the backstretch, entered the far turn five wide, brushed with TAPWRIT past the five sixteenths, came sixwide for the drive, was floated out further in mid stretch then failed to seriously to sustain.

I'm hoping this leads to 20-1 next Saturday.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Holybull1

I'm hoping this leads to 20-1 next Saturday.

Gunnevera won't be 20:1. He also did not have early trouble and actually got decent position ( for him ). He was wide ( three or maybe four on the far turn....but very wide in the stretch ) which could have been an excuse, and I can understand why his fans want to give him another chance. He also might not have loved the going.

[Holybull1]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Gunnevera won't be 20:1. He also did not have early trouble and actually got decent position ( for him ). He was wide ( three or maybe four on the far turn....but very wide in the stretch ) which could have been an excuse, and I can understand why his fans want to give him another chance. He also might not have loved the going.

Agreed. He was one of several horses that tipped out in the stretch and could not make up any ground, not only against the winner but the top 3.

[declansharbor]

Battle of Midway cost me ( and others ) a heavy tri & a $2 super.

Didn't have that horse anywhere NEAR my tickets, was one of my first tosses in fact.

Props to Jon Kinchen for putting listeners onto Limosuine Liberal. Would not have had him on as many tickets as i did w/o JK touting him.

My younger brother Dave got a lesson in turf races when he was laughing at me for most of the Woodford Reserve, as I needed Divisidero on many of the wagers I was linked into. I told him to let me know funny it is after they crossed the wire. All he could muster up was a $hit eatin' grin as my cousin and I were going ballistic after the 2 horse exploded in the stretch. An hour and 15 minutes later we were CRACKING UP at my brother because he picked the 2 horse, Thunder Snow.

I am with NTamm in thinking the O-W-D p3 came up a tad light. We were hoping for more than we got back, spending $80 on a $2 base ticket.

Looking to roll some of the winnings over into Pimlico, which somehow never seems to work out for me. I don't agree with a few on here and Twitter that think this race is a 2 horse race. It's a contentious field, imo. I wasn't too big of a fan of Pletcher's hand going into the Derby, as I thought a hot pace could hurt the chances of his only real shot of winning, in Always Dreaming. But as someone who backed Gunnevera, you couldnt watch the stretch drive replay of the FLA Derby and not be impressed somewhat with AD's finish. That was the sole reason I threw him on some/most tickets.

I would've loved to see that race run on a dry track, but it is what it is. I'm just glad that I didnt bet on Thunder Snow.

Hi Ho Pimlico!

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Even I wouldn't make a stupid comment calling Cloud Computing a "likely" Preakness winner but I'm not sure he isn't the third likeliest winner behind Always Dreaming and Classic Empire.

His Gotham was very strong and he has legit excuses in the Wood. I think he will run very well in Baltimore, and probably outrun his odds, which hopefully can get him there.

Ya saying he is the likely winner is a stretch. I can see him as third betting choice but don't there is much difference in him then many others. Always dreaming is the clear cut favorite but can lose no doubt. Empire had a rough trip as noted so we shall see how much gas is in his tank. I expect Gunnevera and Hence to be much better in this race if its dry.

[Kasept]

Make it 11.. O'Neill adds late running Term of Art to Preakness with Jose Ortiz getting the call.

[taxicab]

Originally Posted by pweizer

Other than Classic Empire at the start, what major trouble did horses have in this race? I really didn't see too many bad trips and would love some insight on things I may have missed.

Paul

The following horses got crushed courtesy of Rajiv:

Sooneteer
J Boys Echo
Classic Empire
McCraken
Tapwrit

Classic Empire really ran lights out,deserves all the credit in the world.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by taxicab

The following horses got crushed courtesy of Rajiv:

Sooneteer
J Boys Echo
Classic Empire
McCraken
Tapwrit

Classic Empire really ran lights out,deserves all the credit in the world.

A wild overstatement. There was bumping. Not a single horse got "crushed."

Feel free to point out one horse that steadied even reasonably hard.

[taxicab]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

A wild overstatement. There was bumping. Not a single horse got "crushed."

Feel free to point out one horse that steadied even reasonably hard.

OK.
FYI......I didn't look at the chart of this race until after your post because I thought the demolition derby at the beginning of the race was obvious.
I'm including the chart,and then point towards the following words/phrases:
Classic Empire: "hammered off stride".
Tapwrit: "forced into tight quarters by IWC soon after the break"
McCraken: "was jostled hard soon after the break"
J Boys Echo: "forced in and jostled with foes soon after start"
Sooneteer: "steadied out of the jam up and altered towards the fence"
Irap: "was bumped when a victim of the melee soon after the break"

But my favorite is the call for IWC: bore in at the break initiating a chain reaction of trouble"


http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRaces...20170506&RN=12

[blackthroatedwind]

I'm not interested in the chart. I watched the race, and particularly the start, quite a few times. Nobody got "crushed." Hyperbole is a dangerous thing.

If people rely on the chart comments in KY for their wagering decisions, they are broke.