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  #1  
Old 04-30-2019, 07:55 AM
Kasept's Avatar
Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
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Location: Greenwich, NY
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Arrow 5/4 (CD): 145th Kentucky Derby Day

145th KENTUCKY DERBY

1. War of Will (Casse/Gaffalione) 20-1
2. Tax (Gargan/Alvarado) 20-1
3. By My Standards (Calhoun/G. Saez) 20-1
4. Gray Magician (Miller/Van Dyke) 50-1
5. Improbable (Baffert/I. Ortiz) 6-1

6. Vekoma (Weaver/Castellano) 20-1
7. Maximum Security (Ja. Servis/L. Saez) 10-1
8. Tacitus (Mott/J. Ortiz) 10-1
9. Plus Que Parfait (Walsh/R. Santana) 30-1
10. Cutting Humor (Pletcher/Lanerie) 30-1

11. Haikal (McLaughlin/Maragh) 30-1
13. Code of Honor (McGaughey/Velazquez) 15-1
14. Win Win Win (Trombetta/Pimental) 15-1
15. Master Fencer (Tsunoda/Leparoux) 50-1
16. Game Winner (Baffert/Rosario) 5-1

17. Roadster (Baffert/Geroux) 6-1
18. Long Range Toddy (Asmussen/Court) 30-1
19. Spinoff (Pletcher/M. Franco) 30-1
20. Country House (Mott/Prat) 30-1
21. Bodexpress (Delgado/Landeros) 30-1
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
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Last edited by Kasept : 05-02-2019 at 01:28 PM.
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  #2  
Old 04-30-2019, 07:56 AM
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Kasept Kasept is offline
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans

Last edited by Kasept : 05-03-2019 at 03:58 AM.
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  #3  
Old 04-30-2019, 09:37 AM
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Kasept Kasept is offline
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2019 PACE QUADRANTS WITH JAMES SCULLY

ON

1-Vekoma
2-Maximum Security
3-War of Will
4-Grat Magician
5-Spinoff


NEAR

6-Bodexpress
7-Improbable
8-Tax
9-Roadster
10-By My Standards


STALK

11-Game Winner
12-Long Range Toddy
13-Tacitus
14-Code of Honor
15-Cutting Humor


OFF

16-Win Win Win
17-Plus Que Parfait
18-Haikel
19-Country House
20-Master Fencer
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans

Last edited by Kasept : 05-03-2019 at 03:46 AM.
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  #4  
Old 04-30-2019, 10:10 AM
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moses moses is offline
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Poor Mark Casse. Setback in the Louisiana Derby and now drawing the 1 post.
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  #5  
Old 04-30-2019, 10:21 AM
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knickslions2 knickslions2 is offline
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Post positions seem fair for most. Time to get to work!!
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  #6  
Old 04-30-2019, 10:42 AM
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tector tector is offline
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1-War of Will (War Front), Mark Casse, Tyler Gaffalione, 20-1
2-Tax (Arch), Danny Gargan, Junior Alvarado, 20-1
3-By My Standards (Goldencents), Bret Calhoun, Gabriel Saez, 20-1
4-Gray Magician (Graydar), Peter Miller, Drayden Van Dyke, 50-1
5-Improbable (City Zip), Bob Baffert, Irad Ortiz Jr., 6-1
6-Vekoma (Candy Ride), George Weaver, Javier Castellano, 20-1
7-Maximum Security (New Year's Day), Jason Servis, Luis Saez, 10-1
8-Tacitus (Tapit) , William Mott, Jose Ortiz, 10-1
9-Plus Que Parfait (Point of Entry), Brandan Walsh, Ricardo Santana Jr., 30-1
10-Cutting Humor (First Samurai), Todd Pletcher, Corey Lanerie, 30-1
11-Haikal (Daaher), Kiaran McLaughlin, Rajiv Maragh, 30-1
12-Omaha Beach (War Front), Richard Mandella, Mike Smith, 4-1
13-Code of Honor (Noble Mission), Shug McGaughey, John Velazquez, 15-1
14-Win Win Win (Hat Trick), Michael Trombetta, Julian Pimentel, 15-1
15-Master Fencer (Just a Way), Koichi Tsunoda, 50-1
16-Game Winner (Candy Ride), Bob Baffert, Joel Rosario, 5-1
17-Roadster (Quality Road), Bob Baffert, Florent Geroux, 6-1
18-Long Range Toddy (Take Charge Indy), Steve Asmussen, Jon Court, 30-1
19-Spinoff (Hard Spun), Todd Pletcher, Manny Franco, 30-1
20-Country House (Lookin At Lucky), William Mott, Flavien Prat, 30-1
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  #7  
Old 04-30-2019, 12:03 PM
cal828 cal828 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by knickslions2 View Post
Post positions seem fair for most. Time to get to work!!
Interesting that Baffert gets the 17 post for Roadster. Every year it seems that there is some historical precedent or "curse" to overcome like the unraced at 2 curse or the curse of the BC Juvenile winner or the NY Bred curse or some such. Maybe this year's curse is the 17 hole curse which I think is the only post that has not produced a winner. I don't particularly like Roadster or dislike him, but as we all know, it's hazardous to your financial health to leave Baffert or Pletcher or Chad Brown(Thank God he doesn't have 2 or 3 in this race) out of your picks.
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  #8  
Old 04-30-2019, 04:42 PM
LITF LITF is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept View Post
2019 PACE QUADRANTS WITH JAMES SCULLY

ON

1-Vekoma
2-Maximum Security
3-Omaha Beach
4-War of Will
5-Improbable


NEAR

6-Gray Magician
7-Spinoff
8-Tax
9-Roadster
10-By My Standards


STALK

11-Game Winner
12-Long Range Toddy
13-Tacitus
14-Code of Honor
15-Cutting Humor


OFF

16-Win Win Win
17-Plus Que Parfait
18-Haikel
19-Country House
20-Master Fencer
War of Will has to be sent now, right? I am going to handicap this race with him on the lead, Maximum Security 2nd and Vekoma 3rd. Think the pace will be faster than originally thought.
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  #9  
Old 04-30-2019, 06:32 PM
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RolloTomasi RolloTomasi is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept View Post
2019 PACE QUADRANTS WITH JAMES SCULLY

ON

1-Vekoma
2-Maximum Security
3-Omaha Beach
4-War of Will
5-Improbable
Is there information outside the PPs that suggests that Improbable is suddenly a speed horse?

Thus far he's only been better than 4th once at the first point of call in any of his races (that was the Los Al Futurity where he was 3rd early after half the field was wiped out on the first turn) and he's never been within 2 lengths of the leader either.

To top it off, he hasn't been in any races with an exceeding fast early pace.

Maybe Bob Baffert has stated he's going to the front?
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  #10  
Old 04-30-2019, 06:36 PM
blackthroatedwind blackthroatedwind is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RolloTomasi View Post
Is there information outside the PPs that suggests that Improbable is suddenly a speed horse?

Thus far he's only been better than 4th once at the first point of call in any of his races (that was the Los Al Futurity where he was 3rd early after half the field was wiped out on the first turn) and he's never been within 2 lengths of the leader either.

To top it off, he hasn't been in any races with an exceeding fast early pace.

Maybe Bob Baffert has stated he's going to the front?

Agreed. His is likely to be WELL off the pace, and likely in a similar spot as Game Winner....unless some major change is expected.
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Just more nebulous nonsense from BBB
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  #11  
Old 04-30-2019, 06:51 PM
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Kasept Kasept is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RolloTomasi View Post
Is there information outside the PPs that suggests that Improbable is suddenly a speed horse? Thus far he's only been better than 4th once at the first point of call in any of his races (that was the Los Al Futurity where he was 3rd early after half the field was wiped out on the first turn) and he's never been within 2 lengths of the leader either. To top it off, he hasn't been in any races with an exceeding fast early pace.

Maybe Bob Baffert has stated he's going to the front?
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind View Post
Agreed. His is likely to be WELL off the pace, and likely in a similar spot as Game Winner....unless some major change is expected.
It's being suggested/anticipated because of how eager he's been in his works.
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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  #12  
Old 04-30-2019, 06:51 PM
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moses moses is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RolloTomasi View Post
Is there information outside the PPs that suggests that Improbable is suddenly a speed horse?

Thus far he's only been better than 4th once at the first point of call in any of his races (that was the Los Al Futurity where he was 3rd early after half the field was wiped out on the first turn) and he's never been within 2 lengths of the leader either.

To top it off, he hasn't been in any races with an exceeding fast early pace.

Maybe Bob Baffert has stated he's going to the front?
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind View Post
Agreed. His is likely to be WELL off the pace, and likely in a similar spot as Game Winner....unless some major change is expected.
He was pretty close to a fast pace in the Street Sense. Who else is clearly faster than him? I suspect he’ll be easily in the 5-10 range, maybe higher up as I’m counting War of Will out of the early pace now.
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  #13  
Old 04-30-2019, 09:50 PM
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Kasept Kasept is offline
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GARY YOUNG CLOCK NOTES/VIDS: https://www.garyyoungthoroughbreds.c...ucky-derby-145
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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