1/22: Fair Grounds (Lecomte Day)

[Kasept]

FAIR GROUNDS


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: LA-MSW, 3yo-F, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #1 Mylies Star 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Candy's Pride 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #10 Conservative Values 8-1 7th
Super Add: #3 Boston Millie 8-1 4th


2nd: MSW, 3yo, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Gunfighter 5-1 WON ($6.80)
Best Value: #2 Halfmoon 8-1 8th
Next Best: #4 Art Heist 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Maasai Warrior 3-1 2nd


3rd: OC/N1X, 3yo, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Underhill's Tab 5-2 6th
Next Best: #4 Stellar Tap 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #2 St Andrews 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Kevin's Folly 9-2 2nd


4th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Field is separated by 2-3 lengths, so I'll reach for Dorochenko and aggressive Vega for a literal New Year Surprise (20-1). Don't be put off by most recent try when wide draw forced jock's hand to move early. Street Sense colt out of Galileo mare has every chance with a repeat of maidenbreaker 2 back..

Best Value: #8 New Year Surprise 20-1 9th
Next Best: #4 Takafumi 7-2 WON ($7.60)
Exotics Use: #1 Win Worthy 6-1 4th
Super Add: #2b Jeansonne entry 4-1 5th


5th: MSW, 3yo, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Peaceful Waters 5-2 WON ($4.00)
Next Best: #5 Almanzo 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #9 Fenwick 9-2 6th
Super Add: #7 Minnesota Ready 12-1 3rd


P5 Grid:

1: 1-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
2: 1-2-4 (A), - (B), - (C)
3: 5 (A), 4 (B), 2 (C)
4: 4-8 (A), 1-2 (B), - (C)
5: 3-5-9 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x2x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x3x1x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup: $18 (2)


P4 Grid:

2: 1-2-4 (A), - (B), - (C)
3: 5 (A), 4 (B), 2 (C)
4: 1-4-8 (A), 2-3-7 (B), - (C)
5: 3-5-9 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x6x3 = 108 x .50 = $54
All A's: 3x1x3x3 = 27 x .50 = $13.50
Backup: $13.50 (2)


6th: MSW, 3yo, 1m-T (P5, P3, DD)

Messy bunch..

Best Value: #7 Mazuna 6-1 4th
Next Best: #14 More Than Work 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Baj 5-1 10th
Super Add: #12 Warrior Johny 8-1 6th


7th: MSW, 3yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Classy Miss 6-1 7th
Next Best: #6 Hazy Command 7-2 WON ($4.60)
Best Value: #9 Mercy Warren 10-1 8th
Exotics Use: #11 Elle of the Ball 8-1 3rd


P4 Grid:

4: 4-8 (A), 1-2 (B), - (C)
5: 3-5-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 7-14 (A), 9-12 (B), - (C)
7: 4-6 (A), - (B), 1-9-10-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x4x2 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x3x2x2 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup: $24 (1-9-10-11)


8th: Duncan F. Kenner, 4+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)

Will presence of Sir Alfred James soften Just Might up for Manny Wah's late pressure? Worth noting Rosario gets back on Cowan and they were very good together in Middle East going longer last year. Cowan moved forward when turf sprinting at 2 and short on grass may be what he's meant to do..

Most Likely: #7 Manny Wah 3-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Just Might 8-5 WON-DQ'd to 8th
Best Value: #2 Cowan 8-1 WON ($10.60)
Exotics Use: #1 Sir Alfred James 5-1 7th


9th: MSW, 3yo, 6f (P3, DD)

1-Strong Quality, 2-Ferocity, 13-Zozos, 14-Stayed in for Half all re-entered for Sunday's 9th..

Most Likely: #8 Planters Punch 5-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Boss' Dialin In 6-1 4th
Best Value: #3 Vinco 12-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #11 I'm Your Captain 20-1 9th


10th: Marie Krantz, F&M-4+, 8.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Catch a Bid/Summer in Saratoga expected to SCR. Abscond is 'supposed' to win this with top rival coming out. Brazilian import Janelle Monae a wild card. I'm interested in Hartman's Assertive Style SCR'D and middle paths may prove to be preferable to boggy inside paths with rails taken down..

Best Value: #4 Lovely Ride 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Abscond 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #10 Pass the Plate 6-1 WON ($19.20)
Super Add: #8 Janelle Monae 8-1 4th


P5 Grid:

6: 7-14 (A), 9-12 (B), - (C)
7: 4-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 5-7 (A), 2 (B), - (C)
9: 3-4-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 1-4 (A), - (B), 8-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x3x3x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x2x2x3x2 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backup: $24 (8-10)


P4 Grid:

7: 4-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 2-5-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 3-4-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 1-4 (A), 8-10 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x3x4 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 2x3x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup: $24 (8-10)


11th: Silverbulletday, 3yo-F, 1m-70y (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 La Crete 2-1 WON ($4.20)
Next Best: #4 Sweet as Pie 5-2 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Fannie and Freddie 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #2 Bernabreezy 9-2 3rd


12th: Col. E.R. Bradley, 4+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Logical Myth/Major Fed expected to SCR..

Best Value: #8 Monarchs Glen 8-1 7th
Next Best: #6 Two Emmys 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Own Agenda 10-1 4th
Super Add: #2 Halo Again 6-1 2nd


13th: Louisiana (G3), 4+, 8.5f (DD)

Chess Chief SCR'g for the Pegooseus..

Most Likely: #3 Midnight Bourbon 6-5 2nd
Next Best: #2 Mandaloun 1-1 WON ($3.80)
Best Value: #6 Warrant 12-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Sprawl 10-1 5th


14th: Lecomte (G3), 3yo, 8.5f

Very nice group to take next step towards Risen Star and LA Derby and track profile could work against Pappacap..

Most Likely: #5 Epicenter 9-5 2nd
Best Value: #6 Cyberknife 6-1 -
Next Best: #3 Pappacap 8-5 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Trafalgar 5-1 -


P5 Grid:

10: 1-4 (A), - (B), 8-10 (C)
11: 4-5 (A), 1-2 (B), - (C)
12: 4-6-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
13: 2-3 (A), - (B), 6 (C)
14: 5-6 (A), 3 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x3x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x2x3x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backups: $24 (8-10) + $12 (6)


P4 Grid:

11: 4-5 (A), 1-2 (B), - (C)
12: 4-6-8 (A), 2-3 (B), - (C)
13: 2-3 (A), - (B), 6 (C)
14: 3-5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x5x2x3 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 2x3x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: $9 (6)


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

EARLY SCR'S

4: 10,12
7: 1,5,7
9: 1,2,10,13,14
10: 2,3,5,9,12
12: 1,5
13: 1

[Kasept]

FG SCR/CHG'S