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Old 08-05-2020, 11:35 AM
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Last edited by Kasept : 08-06-2020 at 03:05 PM.
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Old 08-06-2020, 11:06 AM
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Just watched Uncle Chuck up close schooling on a Twitter video (NYRA Feed) and OMG, he is huge. Didn't really put his size in perspective until I seen him up close.
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Old 08-06-2020, 03:46 PM
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CROSS COUNTRY P5

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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
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Old 08-07-2020, 10:54 AM
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King Glorious King Glorious is offline
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As good as Tiz the Law is, I have Uncle Chuck to bear him here and become the new Derby favorite.
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Old 08-08-2020, 10:12 AM
Rudeboyelvis Rudeboyelvis is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by King Glorious View Post
As good as Tiz the Law is, I have Uncle Chuck to bear him here and become the new Derby favorite.


Uncle Chuck has 2 Graded Stakes wins (Robert B Lewis, San Filipe) in 2 starts.

TZL beat Ete Indien (Admittedly, TLZ didn't have the best of trips and Ete Indien did came back to win the Fountain of Youth next out - probably his best race) 6 months ago, and exactly what else has he beaten?

TZL is a very, very nice horse and can certainly prove me wrong today,
but I think anyone would have to question whether his record is a bit dressed up a bit + isn't going to be worth betting anywhere even close to the price he is going to go off at.

Horizontally, yes TLZ is a defensive include, but playing against vertically for the top spot.

Last edited by Rudeboyelvis : 08-08-2020 at 10:19 AM. Reason: bunch of different charts open -
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  #6  
Old 08-08-2020, 10:30 AM
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knickslions2 knickslions2 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis View Post


Uncle Chuck has 2 Graded Stakes wins (Robert B Lewis, San Filipe) in 2 starts.

TZL beat Ete Indien (Admittedly, TLZ didn't have the best of trips and Ete Indien did came back to win the Fountain of Youth next out - probably his best race) 6 months ago, and exactly what else has he beaten?

TZL is a very, very nice horse and can certainly prove me wrong today,
but I think anyone would have to question whether his record is a bit dressed up a bit + isn't going to be worth betting anywhere even close to the price he is going to go off at.

Horizontally, yes TLZ is a defensive include, but playing against vertically for the top spot.
Uncle chuck is going to have to improve quite a bit here on speed figures to beat Tiz the Law. No doubt he could but tiz is very good horse and think he is sitting on a huge number here. This race has no value to bet.
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Old 08-08-2020, 11:10 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by knickslions2 View Post
Uncle chuck is going to have to improve quite a bit here on speed figures to beat Tiz the Law. No doubt he could but tiz is very good horse and think he is sitting on a huge number here. This race has no value to bet.
Their Timeform numbers are pretty close and that final 1/8 in Uncle Chuck’s last race gives plenty of reason to think he will like 10 furlongs. Not sure if he will win or not but I’m using both in my Pick 5. I don’t think I will even bet the race. If I do, I may throw like $5 down on Caracaro to win, which I think is unlikely but impressed by his race last time out.
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  #8  
Old 08-08-2020, 11:35 AM
Rudeboyelvis Rudeboyelvis is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by knickslions2 View Post
Uncle chuck is going to have to improve quite a bit here on speed figures to beat Tiz the Law. No doubt he could but tiz is very good horse and think he is sitting on a huge number here. This race has no value to bet.
If you're a sheet guy, South Bend, Caracaro, and Uncle Chuck all have big move up potential. Whether South Bend is able to move up to beat Tiz is debatable, but the other 2 definately can have something to say... those 3 with Tiz for me are only logical horses, unless Country Grammer get a sub 1:10 3/4 mile to run into which I don't see.
I see Uncle Chuck as the speed of the speed, the NYRA jock colony, in typical NYRA jock colony fashion will allow him a clear lead and walk to a half in 50 and that's all he's going to need. unless someone with no chance like Shiveree decides to try and cook him early.

I agree with you Tom that Tiz should win. But there are a lot of factors in here that are going to test him and at 2-5/3-5, no thanks. He is going to be horribly overbet.
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Old 08-08-2020, 11:53 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis View Post
If you're a sheet guy, South Bend, Caracaro, and Uncle Chuck all have big move up potential. Whether South Bend is able to move up to beat Tiz is debatable, but the other 2 definately can have something to say... those 3 with Tiz for me are only logical horses, unless Country Grammer get a sub 1:10 3/4 mile to run into which I don't see.
I see Uncle Chuck as the speed of the speed, the NYRA jock colony, in typical NYRA jock colony fashion will allow him a clear lead and walk to a half in 50 and that's all he's going to need. unless someone with no chance like Shiveree decides to try and cook him early.

I agree with you Tom that Tiz should win. But there are a lot of factors in here that are going to test him and at 2-5/3-5, no thanks. He is going to be horribly overbet.
Definitely over bet for sure. Hard to bet the race as I feel tiz is sitting on huge one. Though you never know at this track. I think Caracaro may show some early speed too. Way meet is going you need to be near front. Good luck today Dan
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  #10  
Old 08-08-2020, 11:58 AM
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gamblin4ever gamblin4ever is offline
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1st
Welcome back Rudeboyelvis. I hope you're doing much better.

2nd
Don't discount Baffert when he ships in. He talked about UC's stride and believes he'll like 1 1/4mi. Also, Mott saw SB train on dirt and thinks 1 1/4 might work. I don't think Country Grammar is good enough at this point to beat the top horses yet. Caracaro just looks like a much better horse when he stretched out and trainer is underated I believe.
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  #11  
Old 08-08-2020, 12:04 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by knickslions2 View Post
Definitely over bet for sure. Hard to bet the race as I feel tiz is sitting on huge one. Though you never know at this track. I think Caracaro may show some early speed too. Way meet is going you need to be near front. Good luck today Dan
putting a couple of dollars on Max Player...maybe Rosario can keep him closer to the pace and possibly make up some ground in the stretch...
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Old 08-08-2020, 12:22 PM
Betsy Betsy is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis View Post


Uncle Chuck has 2 Graded Stakes wins (Robert B Lewis, San Filipe) in 2 starts.

TZL beat Ete Indien (Admittedly, TLZ didn't have the best of trips and Ete Indien did came back to win the Fountain of Youth next out - probably his best race) 6 months ago, and exactly what else has he beaten?

TZL is a very, very nice horse and can certainly prove me wrong today,
but I think anyone would have to question whether his record is a bit dressed up a bit + isn't going to be worth betting anywhere even close to the price he is going to go off at.

Horizontally, yes TLZ is a defensive include, but playing against vertically for the top spot.
Uncle Chuck has 1 stakes win, the Los Alamitos Derby...His only other start was his maiden win

I think Max Player, who ran a big race - by far his best - in the Belmont, will run well here...
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  #13  
Old 08-08-2020, 01:25 PM
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King Glorious King Glorious is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis View Post


Uncle Chuck has 2 Graded Stakes wins (Robert B Lewis, San Filipe) in 2 starts.

TZL beat Ete Indien (Admittedly, TLZ didn't have the best of trips and Ete Indien did came back to win the Fountain of Youth next out - probably his best race) 6 months ago, and exactly what else has he beaten?

TZL is a very, very nice horse and can certainly prove me wrong today,
but I think anyone would have to question whether his record is a bit dressed up a bit + isn't going to be worth betting anywhere even close to the price he is going to go off at.

Horizontally, yes TLZ is a defensive include, but playing against vertically for the top spot.
Slight correction. He only has one stakes win and that was at Los Alamitos. He did not run in the Lewis or the San Felipe.

I liked his win at Los Al and watching Thousand Words, who looked completely overmatched against him, come back and win the Shared Belief with the fastest Beyer in a 3yo prep, while beating the SA Derby winner, that validated Uncle Chuck a little bit more.
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  #14  
Old 08-08-2020, 02:13 PM
Rudeboyelvis Rudeboyelvis is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Betsy View Post
Uncle Chuck has 1 stakes win, the Los Alamitos Derby...His only other start was his maiden win

I think Max Player, who ran a big race - by far his best - in the Belmont, will run well here...
Quote:
Originally Posted by King Glorious View Post
Slight correction. He only has one stakes win and that was at Los Alamitos. He did not run in the Lewis or the San Felipe.

I liked his win at Los Al and watching Thousand Words, who looked completely overmatched against him, come back and win the Shared Belief with the fastest Beyer in a 3yo prep, while beating the SA Derby winner, that validated Uncle Chuck a little bit more.
Apologies - as I mentioned in my editing response I had about 6 different charts open and confused the two. King's response bolded is the direction I was going, admittedly poorly. Thanks for the correction - good luck today!
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  #15  
Old 08-08-2020, 02:51 PM
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That Balrina was very impressive, pressure the whole way and for once kept on going, zero excuses for Bellafina here
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  #16  
Old 08-08-2020, 03:55 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by -BT- View Post
That Balrina was very impressive, pressure the whole way and for once kept on going, zero excuses for Bellafina here
I didn't use Bellafina in any of my wagers as she has never won outside Ca.
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  #17  
Old 08-08-2020, 04:43 PM
Dahoss Dahoss is offline
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Gamine is obviously really good (drug test pending) but Rosario handed her the race.
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  #18  
Old 08-08-2020, 05:21 PM
Dahoss Dahoss is offline
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WOW
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  #19  
Old 08-08-2020, 05:22 PM
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who can beat that horse barring an injury....put away Uncle Chuck like he was Cousin Charlie
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  #20  
Old 08-08-2020, 05:31 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by casp0555 View Post
who can beat that horse barring an injury....put away Uncle Chuck like he was Cousin Charlie
Lol
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