11/15/19 - Churchill Late Pick 5

[moses]

Churchill 6 - F&M 3+ OC80000n3x
#6 Cool Beans 2-1
#7 Goiaba 6-1
#8 Boxwood 5-1
#2 Smart Shot 5-2

Plenty of early speed in this race. Cool Beans is the horse to beat. While the ML has the #2 Smart Shot as the logical closer and she’s hard to ignore with recent works, the #7 Goiaba looks like she’s got a stronger closing kick.

Churchill 7 - 3+ CLM50000b
#7 Eisenstaedt 6-1
#6 Iconic 5-1
#4 Front Door 4-1
#3 Gigging 6-1

I could be dead wrong but I think the play here is to bet against Cairo Cat who will likely get a ton of money. He’s the 3-1 ML favorite and I think you’ve got much better value with the top 3 horses listed above. The #7 Eisenstaedt has a sharp workout back on Oct 21 and looks primed to run well, especially with the addition of Santana, as he runs for a tag for the first time since April.

Churchill 8 - 2YO MSW95k
#6 Approved 8-1
#10 My Man Flintstone 4-1
#3 Churn N Burn 7-2
#4 Ghost Game 12-1

The workouts for the West’s colt Approved are the best of this group, with the exception of maybe Mr. Monomoy who doesn’t draw in. The #2 Energizer looked too green in the stretch last time out and so I look elsewhere for the experienced horses. My Man Flintstone looked good in the slop and finished 8 lengths ahead of Unthrottled, who outfinished Energizer last time out. Respect to the #3 Churn N Burn who did not start well and took a wide turn to finish well.

Churchill 9 - F&M 3+ ALW97000n1x
#9 Silver Shaker 9-2
#12 Mercy Mercy 12-1
#7 Silent Surprise 20-1
#8 Vanilla Cat 10-1

This may be the toughest race of the bunch. There are a lot of horses here that look solid but unspectacular on the turf. Silver Shaker ran well in Saratoga and I’d expect that she’ll look better with returning to the grass. Mercy Mercy likes the grass and ran great at 10 furlongs on the dirt so don’t be surprised he she outruns her odds.

Churchill 10 - 3+ CLM20000n2l
#6 Super Terrific 6-1
#2 Military Hop 6-1
#10 Icy Street 12-1
#5 Firery Tale 7-2

With a good amount of early speed, I’m looking mostly for the horses that will be coming late. Military Hop looks like the best of the early pace but Firery Tale should be able to stalk and I think Super Terrific is there late. I can’t help but be intrigued by Icy Street who hasn’t run on dirt in years but who may actually enjoy the surface switch and who cuts back and should be coming late as well.


Race 6
Budget Pick 5
6 / 3,4,6,7 / 3,6,10 / 9,12 / 2,7 ($24.00)
Standard Pick 5
6,7 / 3,4,6,7 / 3,6,10 / 9,12 / 2,5,7 ($72.00)

Race 7
Budget Pick 4
3,4,6,7 / 3,6,10 / 9,12 / 2,7 ($24.00)
Standard Pick 4
3,4,6,7 / 3,4,6,10 / 8,9,12 / 2,7 ($48.00)

[casp0555]

moses!

[knickslions2]

Delmar 7

$20 dd
4,6/9

GL

[moses]

Originally Posted by casp0555

moses!

I was good on the dirt but couldn’t get any of the turf races right. Thankfully I still made a little money today. And funny enough, once I was out of the Pick 4, I swapped horses in the last race and had a win bet on the #2 there. Luckily he nabbed my other top horse at the wire.

Hopefully everyone followed my dirt picks and ignored my turf ones.