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#43
10-13-2020, 02:29 PM
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Thanks ADJMK and casp... Not the most exciting mid-week HV card...
Race 1: #11 Tigerlad began to find some form towards the end of last season before putting in a stinker over a yielding surface. Based on his trackwork he didn’t seem fully cranked for his return run last out but still ran a decent 5th. Can definitely improve on that. #8 Wonder Brahma should find this 1200m distance more suitable, but this is now his third run in the past 2.5 weeks. Race 3: #6 Carry The Diamond did not disgrace himself in either of his two career starts down the ST straight and comes over to HV where he has trialled nicely leading into this. Race 5: #4 Telecom Rocket arguably would have won last time with a clean run in the stretch. Hopefully a bit more room opens up for him this time around. #1 Hercules blew them away last time in his season opener and will be tough to beat if he repeats that performance. #5 Oriental Elite ran well enough going longer at the end of last season. Returned to sprinting off the layoff and the run looks better than on paper---tough trip and fast closing sectionals. Looks a good price add if he can get a good trip from post 9. #2 Won Ball has done absolutely nothing since arriving in HK, but his recent trials have been improved and worth adding underneath at a monster price. PLAYS R1 WP 11 R1 EX BOX 4,8,11 R3 WP 6 R3 TRI 6/1,5/1,3,4,5,10,11 R5 WP 4 R5 EX BOX 1,4,5 R5 TRI 4/1,5/1,2,3,5,7,8,11 Good luck! 
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#44
10-13-2020, 04:24 PM
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Great job on 10/10 card Kitan.
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#48
10-14-2020, 01:01 PM
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Thanks gamblin and chuck...
Quote:
Running total (based on minimum denomination) Bet: $372 Return: $493.60 Total: +$121.60 (-$37.50 from previous)
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#49
10-17-2020, 03:03 PM
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Two G2s on an intriguing card…a few interesting value plays in the first half of the card…
Race 1: #9 Joy N Fun Legend: As I mentioned last time, he has done absolutely nothing on the track, although he has had some excuses, which was also the case last time (big mid-race move). There’s absolutely no speed in this race, and he’s drawn well and down to 114lbs with the apprentice. If he can get in front and back it down to a crawl, who knows what can happen. I’ll take a stab at boxcar odds. On the other hand, the most likely winner for me is #3 Home Win. Finished 4th in his two runs in this class and is now 7lbs better off versus the winners those days (who are also in here). Drawn the rail, can go forward if necessary, and his two wins in Australia were at 1900m and 2000m. 5-1 overnight looks an OK price. Race 2: #14 is around even money on the overnight odds and I think that’s a huge underlay, but I didn’t find much to like in here. #4 Hang’s Decision has been the victim of some poor draws lately, being forced to sit wide. He ran well with a good trip two starts ago and hopefully something similar can play out here. Race 3: #5 Rattan was caught wide and without cover last time, so we can put a line through that run. Down at 119lbs he’s the best weighted runner in here, and while he’s against a couple of runners on the way up while he may be on the way down, the price is more than right. #1 Hot King Prawn may not be fully cranked for this and has to carry the top weight, but he loves running fresh and is the key exotics play. Race 4: I’m not too sure about #2 Ezra over the 1600m, but he has run 3rd and 4th over the course and distance, and this isn’t the strongest race. Race 5: #1 Triple Triple didn’t get a clear path last time until inside the final 1/16th, but despite that was still 5th in Class 3. Just missed in his last C4 try and from gate 3 should avoid the poor, wide trips he's encountered in his other recent runs. #12 Super Red Dragon has finished 2nd twice in his last four runs. Must use for exotics. #11 One Happy Star had to work very hard early from gate 12 when returning off a long layoff at HV. Won a trial wire to wire prior to that and now drawn the rail in a race not full of speed. Good price add. Race 10: #12 Romantic Combo’s work improved during the off-season and he showed ability last time when flying home in 44.8 (last 400m in 22.07). Will get back again from a wide draw but there should be a bit more pace in this, and he is third off the layoff. PLAYS R1 WP 3,9 R1 EX BOX 1,3,5,9 R2 WP 4 R3 WP 5 R3 EX 1,5/1,5 R4 WP 2 R5 WIN 1 R5 Q 1/3,4,5,7,9,11,12 R5 TRI 1/11,12/3,4,5,7,9,11,12 R10 WP 12 Good luck!
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#53
10-19-2020, 12:44 PM
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Quote:
 Quote:
Bet: $431 Return: $568.60 Total: +$137.60 (+$16.00 from previous)
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#54
10-20-2020, 03:11 PM
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Really average card at Happy Valley...
Race 1: #2 Street Scream ran well enough first off the layoff and can improve off that in what is a pretty lacklustre race. Race 2: #4 Polymer Luck: 8yo does his best racing over the course and distance and when up on the speed from an inside draw. Out of form at the moment but this is a very weak C5 event. Race 4: #4 Jazz Steed has run well over 1200m but I’ve always felt he might be better over 1000m. Should get a perfect trip from gate 2. #3 Very Sweet Orange hit a hot patch of form last season. Dropping again in ratings and C4 1000m is more suitable. Can wire them. #1 Happy Good Guys generally runs his best races with a senior jockey and is another who should get a great inside trip. Race 5: #9 Star Present is one of the very few fillies going around in HK. She definitely improved in her work since switching to the new barn over the summer and I thought she hit the line well last time over 1200m. Up to 1650m now third off the layoff. There’s no speed in the race so I think she’ll go forward early, and this wouldn’t be the first time the jock has stolen a paceless route race. Race 6: #7 Exceed The Stars: HK debutant doesn’t have the strong Australian form, but he looked good enough in his trial over the course and distance and the price will be good. PLAYS R1 WP 2 R1 EX BOX 1,2,11,12 R1 TRI 1/2,11,12/2,11,12 R2 WP 4 R4 WP 4 R4 Q 4/1,2,3,5 R4 TRI 4/1,3/1,2,3,5,6,8,12 R5 WP 9 R6 WP 7 Good luck!
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#59
10-21-2020, 12:33 PM
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Nothing doing today...some very strangely run races...should have taken the day off, or at least mispunch the 3 instead of the 2 in R1...
Quote:
Bet: $485 Return: $568.60 Total: +$183.80 (-$53.80 from previous)
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#60
10-23-2020, 04:36 PM
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Race 1:
#11 Xiang Lan Qi: His two runs at the end of last season weren’t too bad, and the 1400m may suit well. Not a very strong race so worth trying a bomb here. Race 3: #13 The Full Bloom shows up in this thread once again. Solid second last time, this race isn’t any tougher, and the price will still be decent. Race 6: #1 Easy Go Easy Win: Down into Class 3 where he won and ran second in two tries last season. Should be primed for this third off the layoff, after a first up run over 1000m and a nice tightener when back in a week later. Race 7: #12 Vigor Champ closed strongly from last in his season debut and hard to work hard early in his second-up run. He wasn’t beaten far in the end, even after checking sharply, and two horses have come out of that race and won next out. Should get a great trip from the rail post. Race 10: A very competitive race with a few promising types, but I’ll take a stab with #13 Right Choice. He has form last season that would make him competitive here, is down to 110lbs with the apprentice, and has a 5: 3-2-0 record over the course and distance. Around 75-1 on the overnight odds. PLAYS R1 WP 11 R3 WP 13 R6 WP 1 R6 Q 1/3,8,9,10 R7 WP 12 R7 Q 12/1,2,3,5,6,10,11,13 R10 WP 13 Good luck!
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