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  #1  
Old 03-26-2015, 05:39 PM
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Kasept Kasept is offline
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Default 3/27-29 (CD): Kentucky Derby Future Wager -- Pool 4

2015 Kentucky Derby Future Wager -- Pool 4

Runner (Pool 1 Odds) (Pool 2 Odds) (Pool 3 Odds) Pool 4 ML Odds

1 American Pharoah (12-1) (10-1) (8-1) 9-2
2 Ami's Flatter (-) (-) (-) 50-1
3 Bold Conquest (-) (-) (-) 50-1
4 Bolo (-) (-) (34-1) 20-1
5 Carpe Diem (15-1) (12-1) (10-1) 6-1
6 Daredevil (48-1) (40-1) (43-1) 30-1

7 Dortmund (9-1) (10-1) (9-1) 5-1
8 Dubai Sky (-) (-) (-) 30-1
9 El Kabeir (74-1) (39-1) (47-1) 20-1
10 Far From OVer (-) (-) (13-1) 15-1
11 Far Right (-) (48-1) (31-1) 30-1
12 Firing Line (-) (35-1) (29-1) 12-1

13 Frosted (38-1) (31-1) (-) 30-1
14 International Star (-) (44-1) (22-1) 20-1
15 Itsaknockout (-) (30-1) (30-1) 30-1
16 Keen Ice (-) (-) (27-1) 50-1
17 Madefromlucky (-) (-) (-) 30-1
18 Materiality (-) (-) (-) 20-1

19 Mr. Z (47-1) (44-1) (44-1) 50-1
20 Mubtaahij (-) (-) (-) 30-1
21 Prospect Park (-) (35-1) (26-1) 15-1
22 Upstart (53-1) (12-1) (15-1) 15-1
23 War Story (-) (-) (30-1) 60-1
24 Mutuel Field-All Others (3-5) (5-2) (4-1) 8-1
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Last edited by Kasept : 03-26-2015 at 06:22 PM.
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  #2  
Old 03-26-2015, 06:15 PM
Rudeboyelvis Rudeboyelvis is offline
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30-1 on Far Right, if we can get it, is certainly worth a look
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Old 03-26-2015, 07:30 PM
Smarty Cide Smarty Cide is offline
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tough to bet in this pool. most of the odds u can get close to on derby day
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  #4  
Old 03-26-2015, 07:33 PM
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Don't get me wrong, I like me some futures, but the total pool for this should be like $550. There is zero value anywhere.
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Old 03-26-2015, 08:16 PM
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Indian Charlie Indian Charlie is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cakes44 View Post
Don't get me wrong, I like me some futures, but the total pool for this should be like $550. There is zero value anywhere.
I suppose that were daredevil to win the wood, 30/1 would be value.

But yeah, what's the point
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Old 03-27-2015, 06:39 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Smarty Cide View Post
tough to bet in this pool. most of the odds u can get close to on derby day
Quote:
Originally Posted by cakes44 View Post
Don't get me wrong, I like me some futures, but the total pool for this should be like $550. There is zero value anywhere.
Whether either of those statements is true will depend on the closing odds of the Future Wager, not the ML.

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  #7  
Old 03-27-2015, 07:50 AM
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Well, obviously. But what I'm saying is that just about any of the horses that might be under the radar or whatever are running this weekend, so you're not likely to make any money.
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Old 03-27-2015, 08:02 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cakes44 View Post
Well, obviously. But what I'm saying is that just about any of the horses that might be under the radar or whatever are running this weekend, so you're not likely to make any money.
If you pick and bet on the eventual winner of the Derby you will make money (80-1).
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Old 03-27-2015, 08:29 AM
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Are you talking about a particular horse that is 80-1 right now? If not, then yes you will definitely make money if you pick and bet the horse that wins the KD. Pretty sure the goal is to have a horse run in, then win the KD at the best odds possible.
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Old 03-27-2015, 10:12 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cakes44 View Post
Well, obviously. But what I'm saying is that just about any of the horses that might be under the radar or whatever are running this weekend, so you're not likely to make any money.
What I took issue with was this blanket statement:
Quote:
Originally Posted by cakes44 View Post
There is zero value anywhere.
The Future Wager is parimutual, so there's every chance that there will be overbet and underbet horses. Saying now that there "is zero value anywhere" in the Future Wager is like saying today that there will be no value in the 8th races at Santa Anita or Gulfstream on Sunday.

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  #11  
Old 03-27-2015, 01:12 PM
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Yes I was overstating a bit. However, your analogy is somewhat off. At least all of the horses in the races at GP and SA are actually running in the races you mentioned.
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Old 03-27-2015, 09:21 PM
saratogadew saratogadew is offline
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Mr. Z for a hundred please.
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  #13  
Old 03-27-2015, 09:23 PM
saratogadew saratogadew is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Smarty Cide View Post
tough to bet in this pool. most of the odds u can get close to on derby day
Mr Z will be 15-1 on Derby day.
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Old 03-27-2015, 10:08 PM
tanner12oz tanner12oz is offline
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Unless a miracle occurs between now and then I beg to differ on mr z
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  #15  
Old 03-28-2015, 05:33 PM
saratogadew saratogadew is offline
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Unless a miracle occurs between now and then I beg to differ on mr z
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  #16  
Old 03-28-2015, 05:35 PM
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Time for a break for Mr Z. Unlikely he gets it unless he's injured though.
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Old 03-29-2015, 08:39 AM
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POOL 4 Current Odds:

1. American Pharoah 5-1
2. Ami’s Flatter 70-1
3. Bold Conquest 77-1
4. Bolo 36-1
5. Carpe Diem 10-1
6. Daredevil 55-1

7. Dortmund 7-1
8. Dubai Sky 22-1
9. El Kabeir 28-1
10. Far From Over 13-1
11. Far Right 41-1
12. Firing Line 13-1

13. Frosted 40-1
14. International Star 20-1
15. Itsaknockout 37-1
16. Keen Ice 68-1
17. Madefromlucky 91-1
18. Materiality 13-1

19. Mr. Z 51-1
20. Mubtaahij 8-1
21. Prospect Park 18-1
22. Upstart 15-1
23. War Story 49-1
24. Field (all others) 11-1
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A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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  #18  
Old 03-29-2015, 08:45 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept View Post
POOL 4 Current Odds:

1. American Pharoah 5-1
2. Ami’s Flatter 70-1
3. Bold Conquest 77-1
4. Bolo 36-1
5. Carpe Diem 10-1
6. Daredevil 55-1

7. Dortmund 7-1
8. Dubai Sky 22-1
9. El Kabeir 28-1
10. Far From Over 13-1
11. Far Right 41-1
12. Firing Line 13-1

13. Frosted 40-1
14. International Star 20-1
15. Itsaknockout 37-1
16. Keen Ice 68-1
17. Madefromlucky 91-1
18. Materiality 13-1

19. Mr. Z 51-1
20. Mubtaahij 8-1
21. Prospect Park 18-1
22. Upstart 15-1
23. War Story 49-1
24. Field (all others) 11-1
Upstart off a DQ and yesterdays trouble offers value at 15-1 in my opinion.
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  #19  
Old 03-29-2015, 09:00 AM
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Kasept Kasept is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jms62 View Post
Upstart off a DQ and yesterdays trouble offers value at 15-1 in my opinion.
Just talking to Andy and he made very logical point that Upstart almost certainly will be between 15-1/20-1 (or more) given the highly prominent love interests (Bafferts'/Pletchers') that will take tons of money..
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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  #20  
Old 03-29-2015, 09:16 AM
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jms62 jms62 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept View Post
Just talking to Andy and he made very logical point that Upstart almost certainly will be between 15-1/20-1 (or more) given the highly prominent love interests (Bafferts'/Pletchers') that will take tons of money..
Thanks Steve. Is that 15-20/1 Derby Day or the end of today?
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