6/27: Thistledown (OH Derby, X-C P5); Belmont (P5); Churchill (P5)

[Kasept]

THISTLEDOWN


POST-SCRATCHES


8th: Ohio Derby (G3), 3yo, 9f (X-C P5-Leg A; DD)

Thoroughly nutty assembly of 14 including an Amoss claimant (Dean Martini) and Stidham MDN (Established) that will be stratospheric prices. Using Hough's dirt returnee South Bend prominently as well as widely drawn Storm the Court & Unrighteous (B's/C's) in Cross Country P5..

Most Likely: #1 Dean Martini 20-1 WON ($31.20)
Best Value: #12 Established 30-1 12th
Next Best: #4 Lebda 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Sprawl 15-1 5th


All Stakes Cross Country P5 Grid:

TDN 8th: 1-4-12 (A), 6-10 (B), 13-14 (C)
BEL 9th: 1-6 (A), 5-8 (B), 2-3 (C)
CD 10th: 5 (A), - (B), 2 (C)
BEL 10: 4-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
CD 11th: 3-5-10 (A), - (B), 1-4-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x4x1x2x3 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 3x2x1x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

$0.50 Pick-5 (1/4,7,8/5/4/10) Paid $1,079.50 (A-B-A-A-A)



BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


7th: 70th Vagrancy (G3), F&M-3+, 6.5f (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Come Dancing returns to sprinting after noble (if foolhardy) Apple Blossom try. Working like a crazy horse (:57.4?!), but she's a short price and there are options. And note a lack of true lead speed beyond Jakarta..

Most Likely: #1 Royal Charlotte 7-2 5th
Next Best: #5 Come Dancing 7-5 2nd
Best Value: #4 Jakarta 20-1 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Chalon 5-2 6th


8th: 77th New York (G2), F&M-4+, 10f-Inner Turf (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Call Me Love 9-5 4th
Next Best: #7 Mean Mary 7-2 WON ($4.50)
Best Value: #3 My Sister Nat 8-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Valiance 15-1 5th


9th: 42nd True North (G2), 4+6.5f (X-C P5-Leg B, P3, DD)

Promises Fulfilled SCR'D returns in similar fashion to Come Dancing: At a low price and in uncertain form. Wait for It SCR'D is consistent, cuts back and figures to sit a nice trip behind the speed with Franco..

Most Likely: # #1 Diamond King 5-1 5th
Best Value: #6 Stan the Man 20-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Yorkton 10-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Firenze Fire 2-1 WON ($4.20)


10th: Just a Game (G1), F&M4+, 1m-T (X-C P5-Leg D, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Newspaperofrecord 8-5 WON ($4.10)
Next Best: #6 Uni 7-5 3rd
Best Value: #5 Regal Glory 10-1 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Got Stormy SCR


11th: MCLM/$40k, 3+, 8.5f-Inner Turf

Most Likely: #6 Sir Chubby 5-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Winning Factor 6-1 WON ($7.30)
Best Value: #9 Montauk Summer 6-1 7th
Super Add: #8 Brice 7-2 4th


P5 Grid:

7: 1-5 (A), - (B), 3-4 (C)
8: 1 (A), 7 (B), - (C)
9: 1-5-6 (A), 2-3-8 (B), - (C)
10: 4-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 3-6-9 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x2x6x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x1x3x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18


P4 Grid:

8: 1 (A), 7 (B), - (C)
9: 1-2-3-5-6-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 4-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 3-6-9 (A), - (B), 8-12 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x6x2x3 = 90 x .50 = $45
All A's: 1x6x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

$0.50 Pick-4 (6,7/4,7,8/4/3,13) Paid $31.25 (A-A-A-A)



CHURCHILL DOWNS


POST-SCRATCHES


7th: ALW/NC, 3+, 5.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Just Might 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #3 Smart Remark 20-1 7th
Next Best: #6 Wellabled 3-1 WON ($15.00)
Exotics Use: #9 Holiday Stone 6-1 9th


8th: 117th Bashford Manor (G3), 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Not sure how they beat the favorite if he runs back to debut..

Most Likely: #6 Cazadero 8-5 WON ($2.80)
Next Best: #3 Gatsby 4-1 6th
Best Value: #2 Hulen 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Herd Immunity 9-2 3rd


9th: 45th Fleur de Lis (G2), F&M-4+, 9f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Serengeti Empress 2-1: As BEL match demonstrated, pace rates edge.. 4th
Next Best: #5 Midnight Bisou 3-5: Respect fully, but will have to run down quality foe.. WON ($3.00)
Best Value: #7 Motion Emotion 15-1: Finally moved forward for Baltas last out.. 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Go Google Yourself 8-1: Keeps good company and always tries hard.. 6th


10th: 38th Stephen Foster (G2), 4+, 9f (X-C P5-Leg C, DD)

While there's several here within stiking distance of him, it's hard to find a vulnerability in Tom's d'Etat..

Most Likely: #5 Tom's d'Etat 1-1 WON ($4.60)
Best Value: #2 Pirate's Punch 15-1 7th
Next Best: #1 Fearless 12-1 6th
Exotics Use: #6 By My Standards 5-2 2nd


11th: 50th Regret (G3), 3yo-F, 9f-T (X-C P5-Leg E, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #5 Crystal Cliffs 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #3 Stunning Sky 20-1 6th
Next Best: #10 Harvey's Lil Goil 5-1 WON ($24.20)
Exotics Use: #6 Micheline 8-1 8th
Hi-5 Play: #1 Dominga 5-1 5th


P5 Grid:

7: 3-5-6-9 (A), 1-7 (B), - (C)
8: 6 (A), - (B), 2-3-4-5 (C)
9: 4-5 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 5 (A), - (B), 2 (C)
11: 3-5-6-10 (A), 1-4-7-9 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x1x2x1x8 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 4x1x2x1x4 = 32 x .50 = $16

$0.50 Pick-5 (6/6/5/5/10) Paid $298.60 (A-A-A-A-A)


P4 Grid:

8: 2-3-6 (A), - (B), 4-5 (C)
9: 4-5 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 5 (A), 2 (B), 1-6 (C)
11: 3-5-6-10 (A), 1-4-7-9 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x2x8 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 3x2x1x4 = 24 x .50 = $12

$0.50 Pick-4 (6/5/5/10) Paid $45.35 (A-A-A-A)


Good luck!
Steve

[knickslions2]

What a great betting race that ohio derby is and what a way to start that cross country pick 5. Pure chaos. Good luck Steve

[moses]

Good luck Steve. Trying to keep an eye on the weather as Race 11 at Churchill looks great if on the turf but way less value if off the turf.

[moses]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

What a great betting race that ohio derby is and what a way to start that cross country pick 5. Pure chaos. Good luck Steve

With likely pace scenario, I’m interested in South Bend. The Cross Country is loaded with some nice races.

Stephen Foster is made a little more interesting with the top two horses having new jockeys. I’m hoping Pirate’s Punch can steal it. His figures are close and he generally fires off the layoff.

[Kasept]

Promises Fulfilled a SCR from True North..

Mother Mother a SCR from Vagrancy..

Mrs. Sippy a SCR from New York..

[Kasept]

BEL SCR/CHG'S

CD SCR/CHG'S

TDN SCR/CHG'S

[Max Caidy]

DEAN MARTINI !

Great call Steve!

[ontheoutside]

i made out well in race,,,but it was kind of a weird for me i really didnt use ur 4 h orses you posted,,,but instead,,,i used ur top pick dean then i used what ur wrote up top,,,,you mentioned so bend and storm the cat,,but they were not in ur picks,,,,i guess i got lucky...10dollar.ex and 1dollar trip

1 bet on xc
thistle 8th 1 19 13
bel 9th 1658
chill 10th 5 2
belm 10th 4651
chill 11th 35 10 146 50 cents cost 286 thank u

[moses]

Great call on Dean Martini Steve.

[ontheoutside]

hot dogs at famous and pizza at defazios on me fantastic handicapping

[myke]

Who's The Man.....you Are The Man.........thanks

[casp0555]

nice work Steve...awesome job. Thanks

[atolunch]

Yet another awesome display!

Congrats and thanks as always!!

[Kasept]

Thx guys. Fun afternoon and pleased you did well. Hope many benefitted!

[Bogey]

Steve, great job. All over it. Congrats!

[knickslions2]

Steve nice job! Ohio Derby was a lot of fun

[Kasept]

Gus.. Tom.. THX! Between the betting opportunities and performances from authentic stars, it was a really satisfying afternoon.