Thursday, 7/2: Nick Tammaro's Belmont Analysis presented by RTN

[Kasept]

BELMONT – 7/2/2020

Race 1- 1 st #7 TRUE GRACE 2 ND #6 CALIDAD 3 RD #1 SHARP STARR

#2 LA KARA MIA appears to be perfectly spotted 2 nd time out after earning some valuable experience on
debut. The first foal of the late La Verdad, this filly is supposed to be at her best on dirt and her trainer excels
with 2 nd time starters. #6 CALIDAD rallied into a moderate pace on debut, but faltered last time out when she got a better setup. The added ground should help her chances and her pilot specializes in off the pace types.
#1 SHARP STARR was an unimpressive 8 th last time out after breaking from the rail. She gets an upgrade at
pilot today but will need to improve second off the layoff to contend for top honors.

Race 2- 1 st #6 HONORABLE HERO 2 ND #8 CATCH A CAB 3 RD #9 NUTZFORBOLTZ

#6 HONORABLE HERO gets the nod in a race where it is tough to settle on any runner. He stretches out 2 nd
off the bench and has been successful in the past going long while showing early speed. There is little other
confirmed speed in here, so he might find himself alone if aggressively ridden. #8 CATCH A CAB made a
wide move around the far turn last time out before flattening out late and now goes 2 nd off a 180+ day layoff for
Mike Maker. This gelding faced far better last time out and merits consideration simply for that reason. The
jockey change to Irad Ortiz, Jr. will make him popular at the windows. #9 NUTZFORBOLTZ is back on short
rest as his trainer seemingly seeks a way to get him out of his barn. This late runner will need things to setup
for him on the front end, but his best races are clearly good enough to win today.

Race 3- 1 st #1 BLACKJACK DAVEY 2 ND #5 PACIFIC JAZZ 3 RD #7 JADE’S DREAM

Much like La Kara Mia in the day’s opener, #1 BLACKJACK DAVEY stretches out in his 2 nd career start.
Trainer Linda Rice is 37% with MSW 2 nd timers stretching out on dirt ($2.07 ROI) and this son of Posse should
be the controlling speed from the inside. #5 PACIFIC JAZZ seems like he had the most to gain from a debut
where he picked up some pieces late at 14-1. The race was largely dominated by pacesetting or stalking types
and this gelding now gets blinkers for his 2 nd outing. That should keep him more alert in the opening stages.
#7 JADE’S DREAM ran a bang-up race to snag the place dough at a huge price last time. He clearly
benefited from having a race behind him and has upside. While he won’t be 64-1, he should still offer value at
the windows.

Race 4- 1 st #1 CAIRO QUEEN 2 ND #5 FLASHPACKINBARBIE 3 RD #6 WICKED TITLE

#1 CAIRO QUEEN was close to the slower inside paths last time out when she set the pace before being
overhauled by a runaway winner. This daughter of Cairo Prince now cuts back in distance and returns to the
site of her maiden win. With two confirmed speedsters signed up, the pace should be suitable for a late
running type. #5 FLASHPACKINBARBIE may end up proving to be too good for these horses as she returns
from a layoff. There’s no doubt she disappointed after a promising maiden win, but health issues clearly
plague this daughter of Munnings. If she runs back to her debut her rivals are in trouble. #6 WICKED TITLE
goes 3 rd off a layoff for a “trainer” that switches surfaces today. She has been beaten up by tougher
competition regularly so far and now gets some needed class relief. That seems like a positive.

Race 5- 1 ST #5 COTTON CANDY CUTIE 2 ND #6 STAY FOND 3 RD #8 MALARKEY

#5 COTTON CANDY CUTIE has an aversion to winning, but exits a bang-up effort off the layoff for a barn that
is quietly having a good meet. This gal contested a white hot pace against tougher foes last time before
hanging in there to finish third. She can move forward off that race and should be forwardly placed again in
here. #6 STAY FOND was claimed by high percentage connections last time out in a dull 3 rd place finish on
Valentine’s Day. She is spotted realistically off the break and is in for the waiver for new trainer Mike Miceli.
Her best races win this thing, but she is more of a distance type who you need to ride very hard so 7 panels
may not cut it. #8 MALARKEY is another returning from the COVID-induced break. She was a respectable
third against tougher last time and lands in the right spot today. She can stalk and pounce from an ideal
outside draw.

Race 6- 1 st #4 EDGE OF FIRE 2 ND #7 CREED 3 RD #3 MISTER WINSTON

#4 EDGE OF FIRE had enough go wrong last time out to be given another try in a race where he’s going to be
totally overlooked at the windows. This son of Curlin was off poorly then got stuck behind horses before
angling out in a race where the pace was hardly robust. He faces a slew of unproven recent maiden breakers
and has more seasoning. That gives him an edge of sorts. #7 CREED is strictly the one to beat for trainer
Shug McGaughey. He was an impressive maiden winner last time and earned enough accolades in that win to
be listed in the Kentucky Derby Future pool that ran last weekend. The sky is the limit for this colt, but you’ll
get no value here for a barn that has an $0.87 ROI with dirt routers off maiden wins. #3 MISTER WINSTON is
a second timer who scored on debut by rallying into a slow pace. He’s bred to excel at longer distances and
should be a square price today for a barn whose runners are usually pounded at the windows.

Race 7- 1 st #6 NICODEMUS 2 ND #9 COMPLEXITY 3 RD #3 SPINOFF

Just the run of the mill allowance race featuring two Grade I winners and Grade 3 winner #6 NICODEMUS.
This veteran switches surfaces after surprisingly showing speed last time out sprinting on the weeds. He
understandable tired after showing that speed and now gets back to a distance and surface that yielded the
best performance of his life. Trainer Linda Rice is 11 for her last 47 with routers in scheduled turf-to-dirt
situations (no off the turf races) good for a $2.69 ROI. #9 COMPLEXITY is the horse to beat as he returns
from yet another layoff for Chad Brown. He was overmatched in the Malibu and now draws ideally at a
distance that also yielded his biggest win to date. The main advantage he possesses is the ability to wrest
control of this thing from the start. #3 SPINOFF is the more appealing of the Todd Pletcher pair as he exits a
game 2 nd place finish going 9 panels to a contender in Saturday’s Suburban. He’s clearly better with more
distance and rebounded well last time out off a poor effort at 7 furlongs. His best races put him in contention
here.

Race 8- 1 st #1 FIFTY FIVE 2 ND #2 FETCHING 3 RD #5 CLASSIC LADY

Until knocked from her perch atop the NY bred older female turf ranks, #1 FIFTY FIVE gets the nod in here.
Things won’t be easy this time around as she is better with more ground and more pace. The early gallop in
here figures to be deliberate, and this is a tough assignment off the bench. Nonetheless, she has overcome
similar adversity in the past and is the one to beat. #2 FETCHING steps up in class, but is interesting given
she can show speed stretching out off a 7 furlong tilt. Trainer Mark Casse is 36% with horses returning in 1-14
days off of wins over the last 5 years ($4.19 ROI) and they might be striking while the iron is hot with this gal.
#5 CLASSIC LADY makes a positive barn change off the layoff and steps up in class. She has been
consistent against weaker and is one who can adjust for the expected slow pace. That makes her worthy of
consideration.

Race 9- 1 st #11 PAINITE 2 ND #6 CAINUDOTHETWIST 3 RD #2 HERWAZE

While the post position and jockey are negatives, #11 PAINITE gets the nod in a wide-open nightcap. She
improved upon moving to turf, which was expected given her pedigree, and she was hurt by being forced into a
wide move around the quarter pole. If she can get over from his high outside draw and save ground early, her
chances go up. #6 CAINUDOTHETWIST could not have possibly found a softer field of 40k maiden sellers for
her debut. She is trained by former jump jockey Arch Kingsley, Jr., and is out of a mare who won her turf
debut. There’s pedigree top and bottom and she’s hardly facing a bunch of killers here. #2 HERWAZE
showed life on debut as she chased the pace before weakening late. She’s now back off a layoff for a barn
that is struggling mightily in 2020. If she can get control from the inside early then her chances improve.

BELMONT MEET STATS: 169-37-22-22 $218.00

[vprtdo]

June 28th was last Sunday. Anyway to post today’s Nick’s analysis?

[herkhorse]

Those are today’s picks

[vprtdo]

My bad, after closer look. 1st line was old
Race 1- 1 st #5 LIQUOR 2 ND #3 AFTER PROM PARTY 3 RD #7 TRUE GRACE