Thursday, 6/25: Nick Tammaro's Belmont Analysis presented by RTN

[Kasept]

BELMONT – 6/25/2020

Race 1- 1 st #4 LOVE ME TOMORROW 2 ND #1 DREAM CHASING 3 RD #11 GRAETZ

#4 LOVE ME TOMORROW is the speed of the speed if properly ridden by Dylan Davis today. She came up
short last time out at 6.5 furlongs and dropping that last sixteenth will greatly help today. This rider is not fond
of the front end, but his charge has only one way to go and needs to see open space early. #1 DREAM
CHASING is the one to beat on the drop, as trainer Christophe Clement is spotting this filly realistically off the
break. She gets Lasix and should be in an ideal stalk and pounce spot in the early stages. Clement is also
30% with turf sprinters off 180+ day breaks over the last 5 years ($2.13 ROI). #11 GRAETZ is the one to beat
as she drops in class following a good effort against MSW foes. This filly tracked a strong pace that day before
weakening late, and was almost certainly in need of a race off the layoff. The outside post and aggressive pilot
should contribute to her being in a good spot early.

Race 2- 1 st #1 MANDATORY PAYOUT 2 ND #10 OUR STORMIN NORMAN 3 RD #9 MINE THE COIN

#1 MANDATORY PAYOUT rarely wins, which is a major concern, but also spent more time than he needed to
on the slower inside paths in his last start. He should get some pace help in this field and will offer value in a
race that is devoid of a standout. #10 OUR STORMIN NORMAN goes second off a layoff following an
improved effort at this level in the nightcap on opening day. His trainer has quietly had a productive meet and
this gelding fits this race like a glove. His outside post and ample early speed make him a threat from the
outset and he should be an attractive price. #9 MINE THE COIN is back in against 16k sellers on dirt two
races removed from a horrific performance at Aqueduct. He was lifeless last time out on the lawn but gets a
massive rider upgrade and faces a weak bunch for this level. That’s enough to include him in your multi-race
bets.

Race 3- 1 st #12 FROZEN ACCOUNT 2 ND #10 MARINER QUI 3 RD #8 UNBRIDLED JOHN

#12 FROZEN ACCOUNT takes a huge drop in class off a trainer change and is a new gelding for Carlos
Martin. This gelding improved last time out when he made a middle move before flattening out late. He now
goes 2 nd off the brief break and faces far weaker than he has in three prior tries. That’s enough to give him the
nod in a bulky field. #10 MARINER QUI battled it out early on a fast pace last time before tiring late. He likely
needed that race and trainer Charlie Baker is 23% with all runners going 2 nd off 60-120 day breaks ($2.32 ROI). This guy’s speed is an asset. #8 UNBRIDLED JOHN picked up pieces in garbage time last time out against
similar competition and now also goes second off a layoff. He needs to be kept in the game more early and his
pilot has a tendency to snooze in the opening furlongs.

Race 4- 1 st #2 MUSICAL HEART 2 ND #4 NOBLE THOUGHT 3 RD #3 ABIDING STAR

#2 MUSICAL HEART finally lands in a realistic spot on the turf after tries against top level optional claimers
and graded stake foes in Florida. He drew favorably on the inside and is versatile enough to take back and
make one run if jockey Jose Ortiz so chooses today. You’ll get a fair price here as well. #4 NOBLE
THOUGHT is another who has spent most of the last year facing much tougher competition. This is a realistic
drop for him and things should work in his favor with two confirmed frontrunners signed up. The presence of
leading rider Irad Ortiz, Jr. is a value crusher. #3 ABIDING STAR is ridden by the most inept of the regulars in
this colony and needs to be handled aggressively from the gate. That is not his pilot’s forte, so you have to
hope the connections make it clear this veteran son of Uncle Mo only has one way to go. We’ve seen what he
can do in the past when left to his own devices on the front end.

Race 5- 1 ST #12 MAGICAL ROMANCE 2 ND #1 SARATOGA LOVE 3 RD #11 SANDRA’S MINE

#12 MAGICAL ROMANCE gets the nod as a price play in a weak 40k event sprinting on the weeds. She
woke up last time on the return to turf and had actually shown marked improvement in her final start before
going to the sidelines in March. This is a massive upgrade at rider given apprentice Luis Cardenas has shown
plenty of ability, and this gal figures to be in an ideal spot early stalking the pace. #1 SARATOGA LOVE takes
the biggest class drop in horse racing having made three prior starts against MSW foes. Trainer Christophe
Clement is giving up on her pretty easily, as she has had only one try as a 3YO and with Lasix, but he seems
to know where she fits. The drop alone makes her a must-use in the Pick 5. #11 SANDRA’S MINE is the one
to beat given the race she ran against 40k sellers when last seen late in 2019. This barn is cold at the moment
and has never really been one you expect to win off layoffs, but this filly’s past form is simply much better than
that of her rivals here.



Race 6- 1 st #4 HOLMDEL PARK 2 ND #3 SINGULAR SENSATION 3 RD #2 MAKINGCENTS

#4 HOLMDEL PARK is the best price play on the card as she changes surfaces and faces far weaker than
she has in two of her three dirt tries against winners. This filly is quick enough to take command from the start
in here and this race is very short on speed. That’s where you have to hope Kendrick Carmouche seizes what
could be a sizable advantage in the opening furlongs. #3 SINGULAR SENSATION was a game 2 nd to
eventual multiple stakes winner Ratajkowski last time out. She clearly had something happened that day and
is back off a long layoff in a field that certainly doesn’t feature a horse of Ratajkowski’s ability. If able to
duplicate her last the race is for second. #2 MAKINGCENTS crushed a field of maidens last time out as the
7/5 fave and has landed in a weaker than par N1X for NY breds today. She’s one that can get involved early
as well and that would help given the pace scenario here.

Race 7- 1 st #8 BOURBON MISSION 2 ND #4 FAST GETAWAY 3 RD #6 OUTRAGEOUS BET

#8 BOURBON MISSION got into trouble at just the wrong time in his last start, steadying in mid-stretch before
racing in hand for most of the final furlong. He now moves back into the NY bred ranks and figures to get a
nice pace setup in this speed-laden field. You’ll get value here and this trainer and jockey combined for a 23-1
winner here on Sunday. #4 FAST GETAWAY is the one to beat based on his past form, but trainer Linda Rice
has never been good off 180+ day breaks in turf sprints (2-32, $0.26 ROI last 5 years). This son of Into
Mischief has been remarkably consistent, with 8 of 10 trifecta finishes on the turf, and his best races wallop this
bunch. #6 OUTRAGEOUS BET is another late runner who goes 2 nd off a layoff today for Amira Chichakly. He
was no factor last time out but likely needed a race off the layoff. He’s been competitive against tougher in the
past and should be a square price.

Race 8- 1 st #5 PRODIGIOUS BAY 2 ND #3 CASINO GRANDE 3 RD #4 SONNEMAN

With #1 CELTIC STRIKER entered in the Ohio Derby his defection would make #5 PRODIGIOUS BAY the
lone speed in this compact field. He was a clear leader in his first try against winners before being collared
inside the quarter pole, but the competition he faces here is drastically softer. Look for him to take control from
the start. #3 CASINO GRANDE is a likely winner given the improvement he showed at 2 nd asking when
handily victorious against N1X foes. That race has turned out to be modest in terms of field quality, but this
colt still has upside given his regal pedigree and the promise he’s already shown. #4 SONNEMAN is new to
the barn of Steve Asmussen, who has poor numbers with new arrivals to his stable. This late runner was up in
time with a big pace to run at in his last start and will be on the move late again today. Whether this 8.5 furlong
distance is his preferred trip remains to be seen and you’ll have to swallow a short price here.

Race 9- 1 st #12 FRESCO 2 ND #5 TOWERING GAZE 3 RD #3 MAGNOLIA’S LADY

#12 FRESCO is the one to beat taking an enormous class drop into the NY bred ranks following two open
company starts in Florida. She fared well in those tries and figures to also appreciate the cutback in distance
being a half to 7 furlong turf stake winner Therapist. #5 TOWERING GAZE ran the better race on debut
between she and #3 MAGNOLIA’S LADY, as this daughter of Gio Ponti made a strong move towards the
inside before coming up just short of the place dough. Trainer David Donk does well with 2 nd timers and the
experience factor is huge. The aforementioned ‘Magnolia made a late move into a white hot pace on debut
and now looks to improve with that race behind her. This is another barn whose horses frequently need one in
their unveiling, so improvement is expected.

BELMONT MEET STATS: 131-29-16-15 $168.90