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  #41  
Old 06-09-2011, 04:06 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GPK View Post
Cool. Toga is out for me this year, unless I hit me a pick 4 that will pay me 2 or 3 dimes.
Will you two nerds take this offline?
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  #42  
Old 06-09-2011, 04:15 PM
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Will you two nerds take this offline?
Get a new avatar.
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  #43  
Old 06-09-2011, 04:19 PM
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I suppose Big Brown is a little passe. Sort of like GPK's closet.
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  #44  
Old 06-10-2011, 08:19 AM
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Travis Stone Travis Stone is offline
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I think this is a really interesting Belmont....

Overbet (even if just slightly):
Nehro
Master of Hounds

Underbet:
Shackleford

Neither Over/Under:
Animal Kingdom
Mucho Macho Man

I generally agree with everyone who thinks Shackleford might run out of gas, but I think there's still a chance he pulls a Da Tara and just bottoms-out the field. If Animal Kingdom runs his race, he should be there. There's no doubt he and Shackleford right now are the top two in the division.

Nehro is everyone's wise-guy horse, but I'm less enthused. He's an obvious contender, but he's going to be overbet (I think, anyway) based off the fact he skipped the Preakness, is lightly-raced etc. I'll use, and hope to beat.

To make a big score, you have to beat a few of the obvious guys somewhere. I'm going to try and get Santiva somewhere on the board. He was probably short in the Derby, and ran well enough to justify a move forward in here at a good price. He has the pedigree, too.

If it comes up wet, Brilliant Speed enters the conversation a bit. Not sure about him yet on a dry track.
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  #45  
Old 06-10-2011, 09:54 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Travis Stone View Post
I think this is a really interesting Belmont....

Overbet (even if just slightly):
Nehro
Master of Hounds

Underbet:
Shackleford

Neither Over/Under:
Animal Kingdom
Mucho Macho Man

I generally agree with everyone who thinks Shackleford might run out of gas, but I think there's still a chance he pulls a Da Tara and just bottoms-out the field. If Animal Kingdom runs his race, he should be there. There's no doubt he and Shackleford right now are the top two in the division.

Nehro is everyone's wise-guy horse, but I'm less enthused. He's an obvious contender, but he's going to be overbet (I think, anyway) based off the fact he skipped the Preakness, is lightly-raced etc. I'll use, and hope to beat.

To make a big score, you have to beat a few of the obvious guys somewhere. I'm going to try and get Santiva somewhere on the board. He was probably short in the Derby, and ran well enough to justify a move forward in here at a good price. He has the pedigree, too.

If it comes up wet, Brilliant Speed enters the conversation a bit. Not sure about him yet on a dry track.
I like Brilliant Speed, his derby was similar to Summer Bird's.
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  #46  
Old 06-10-2011, 10:16 AM
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Originally Posted by ateamstupid View Post
Get a new avatar.
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  #47  
Old 06-10-2011, 10:37 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Travis Stone View Post
I'm going to try and get Santiva somewhere on the board. He was probably short in the Derby, and ran well enough to justify a move forward in here at a good price. He has the pedigree, too.
That's the price horse that I think should be on the board too.
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  #48  
Old 06-10-2011, 12:29 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CSC View Post
I like Brilliant Speed, his derby was similar to Summer Bird's.
In the Derby, Brilliant Speed was much wider and had the "tougher" trip. I might hedge myself on Santiva going forward... I still don't like Nehro that much though.
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  #49  
Old 06-10-2011, 03:20 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Travis Stone View Post
In the Derby, Brilliant Speed was much wider and had the "tougher" trip. I might hedge myself on Santiva going forward... I still don't like Nehro that much though.
I realize Animal Kingdom is bred for the turf, but his pre-derby workout obviously showed he moves really well on the dirt.

But watching Brilliant Speed's win in the Bluegrass again, he appears to really move like a turf horse, and I just can't get myself to like him....at all.
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  #50  
Old 06-10-2011, 03:26 PM
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Does anyone think a change of tactics might happen on say a Ruler On Ice or Prime Cut, and they break looking for the lead?

I guess even if that does happen, Shackleford can rate off a target, and he probably has the same questions about distance as before...
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  #51  
Old 06-10-2011, 03:36 PM
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I think people are ignoring the potential for Ruler On Ice to add to the early pace w/ the addition of blinkers and some fast recent works, and think Prime Cut might be close too.
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  #52  
Old 06-10-2011, 04:26 PM
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Shackleford is 16-1 in the early betting... what?
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  #53  
Old 06-10-2011, 04:45 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Travis Stone View Post
Shackleford is 16-1 in the early betting... what?
I hope it stays that way.
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  #54  
Old 06-10-2011, 04:51 PM
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It's early, but even in the doubles to Master Of Hounds is getting hit hard.... his DD with Birdrun is $17, versus $37 for Shackleford.
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  #55  
Old 06-10-2011, 04:52 PM
tjfla tjfla is offline
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Where u seeing the early odds at?
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  #56  
Old 06-10-2011, 05:02 PM
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They showed them on Versus... then there was a few people from on-track who were posting them to Twitter too.
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  #57  
Old 06-10-2011, 05:09 PM
tjfla tjfla is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Travis Stone View Post
They showed them on Versus... then there was a few people from on-track who were posting them to Twitter too.
Cool thanks
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  #58  
Old 06-10-2011, 05:48 PM
Alan07 Alan07 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Travis Stone View Post
Shackleford is 16-1 in the early betting... what?
Odds reflect on-track betting only.
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  #59  
Old 06-10-2011, 05:50 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan07 View Post
Odds reflect on-track betting only.
Good to know. Thanks. But the double does not. And the double is 2x the payoff to Shackleford as Master of Hounds.
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  #60  
Old 06-10-2011, 06:20 PM
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Way too early to think those early wagers are an indicator of race day odds; but it sure shows the media splurge and expert picks of Master of Hounds have dropped his odds, and at the seemingly sole expense of the disrespected Shackleford.

If it's wet, I'll box Shackleford and Mucho Macho Man
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