Derby Trail Forums

Go Back   Derby Trail Forums > Main Forum > The Paddock
Register FAQ Members List Calendar Today's Posts

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #41  
Old 04-29-2021, 12:39 PM
Kitan Kitan is offline
Gulfstream Park
 
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Other side of the globe
Posts: 1,204
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by theguarantee View Post
Point I want to make though...and I realize this thread has been somewhat heated, I swear I’m not trying to be an ass...how exactly is it “baseless conjecture” that WoW could not have finished ahead of Max Security in the derby when sawed off turning for home making what sure seemed like a potential winning move...he then came back to win the Preakness two weeks later and while maybe that wasn’t the best field ever he did beat improbable...
Code of Honor made "what sure seemed like a potential winning move", and hit a brick wall... He won two G1s at 10f as a 3yo. Maybe if he suffered interference he would have won the Derby?

Quote:
Originally Posted by theguarantee View Post
At any rate, my point is, the baseless conjecture seems to be on your part...the conjecture from that Derby is that War of Will wouldn’t have won based on what we will never be able to find out. You sir, in my opinion, are the one making a baseless conjecture...
This is the whole point. There is literally zero hard, factual evidence that WoW would have finished ahead of MS. All arguments are based solely on guesses, "could haves", or "look what he did next start". How can that be used to make such crucial decisions? And the result of that crucial decision was that the best horse in the race was placed 17th, the new "winner" was far from the best horse in the race, and the "potential" winner was placed 7th. Does anyone actually benefit from such decisions? In the TAM race, the horse got fouled just before the wire and literally lost on a bob. How anyone can argue that is the worst DQ ever but say the MS DQ was so blatantly obvious is beyond me.

By the way, everyone is so engrossed with the interference that no one ever seems to talk about how Gaffalione essentially stopped riding the horse in the last 40 yards with the horse in 4th place...
Reply With Quote
  #42  
Old 04-29-2021, 01:01 PM
Dahoss Dahoss is offline
Keeneland
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 10,295
Default

Ummmm....your whole argument about War of Will not beating Maximum Security had he not been fouled is also a guess.

Who knows what would have happened. All we know for sure is Maximum Security fouled no less than 3, maybe more horses. Any opinion on where those horses would have finished or if they would have beaten the horse that fouled them is a guess.

Appears as though guessing is okay if you and the rest of the important people around the world in racing agree. I’m just glad you are engaging us common folk.
Reply With Quote
  #43  
Old 04-29-2021, 01:05 PM
moses's Avatar
moses moses is offline
Oriental Park
 
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 3,608
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kitan View Post
Code of Honor made "what sure seemed like a potential winning move", and hit a brick wall... He won two G1s at 10f as a 3yo. Maybe if he suffered interference he would have won the Derby?



This is the whole point. There is literally zero hard, factual evidence that WoW would have finished ahead of MS. All arguments are based solely on guesses, "could haves", or "look what he did next start". How can that be used to make such crucial decisions? And the result of that crucial decision was that the best horse in the race was placed 17th, the new "winner" was far from the best horse in the race, and the "potential" winner was placed 7th. Does anyone actually benefit from such decisions? In the TAM race, the horse got fouled just before the wire and literally lost on a bob. How anyone can argue that is the worst DQ ever but say the MS DQ was so blatantly obvious is beyond me.

By the way, everyone is so engrossed with the interference that no one ever seems to talk about how Gaffalione essentially stopped riding the horse in the last 40 yards with the horse in 4th place...
Code of Honor arguably was also fouled while making that move. I'm not sure I ever got a great angle on it but he had a head full of steam, Maximum Security came back inside and may have impeded him. It was moot because Maximum Security so clearly interfered War of Will that no one ever really paid much attention to it.

As for Gaffalione's ride, I'd have to go back. I didn't notice. But the horse was also coming off a possible injury in the Louisiana Derby so if he thought that he needed to ease the horse then I'm not going to second guess him.
Reply With Quote
  #44  
Old 05-23-2021, 03:37 PM
Kitan Kitan is offline
Gulfstream Park
 
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Other side of the globe
Posts: 1,204
Default

Exact same thing as the TAM race happened today at the premier track in Ireland (Curragh). Can see it here around the 5:20 mark (head-on shown after the photo finish): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PFHpv9_5bpY&t=5m20s

Horse with the green silks bumped the outside horse (in the pink), who had all the momentum, right before the wire and holds on in a bob. Horse is DQ'ed, as was done in Tampa, even in a jurisdiction where DQs are rare. Maybe I'm not such a fool after all
Reply With Quote
  #45  
Old 05-23-2021, 04:26 PM
Dahoss Dahoss is offline
Keeneland
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 10,295
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kitan View Post
Exact same thing as the TAM race happened today at the premier track in Ireland (Curragh). Can see it here around the 5:20 mark (head-on shown after the photo finish): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PFHpv9_5bpY&t=5m20s

Horse with the green silks bumped the outside horse (in the pink), who had all the momentum, right before the wire and holds on in a bob. Horse is DQ'ed, as was done in Tampa, even in a jurisdiction where DQs are rare. Maybe I'm not such a fool after all
I don’t know if fool is the right word. Massive douchebag...sure. But not a fool.
Reply With Quote
  #46  
Old 05-23-2021, 05:24 PM
moses's Avatar
moses moses is offline
Oriental Park
 
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 3,608
Default

Odd. I woke up today and thought to myself, “I hope we can rehash that argument about DQs from last month.”
Reply With Quote
  #47  
Old 05-23-2021, 06:00 PM
RolloTomasi's Avatar
RolloTomasi RolloTomasi is offline
Oriental Park
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 3,607
Default

Santa Anita Park is a little bit closer to Tampa Bay Downs than the Curragh...

Chart from Race 4 today:

ORDER AND LAW was hustled to the front, briefly challenged early on backstretch, regained control and remained clear into the stretch, dug in through drive, drifted out some passing sixteenth marker, made light contact with RIP CITY in final yards and lasted.

THE STEWARDS CONDUCTED AN INQUIRY INVOLVING THE INCIDENT NEARING THE WIRE AND LEFT THE ORIGINAL ORDER OF FINISH STAND RULING THAT DESPITE ORDER AND LAW DRIFTING OUT AND MAKING LIGHT CONTACT MADE IN DEEP STRETCH IT DID NOT WARRANT A DISQUALIFICATION.
Reply With Quote
  #48  
Old 05-23-2021, 07:00 PM
Dahoss Dahoss is offline
Keeneland
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 10,295
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by RolloTomasi View Post
Santa Anita Park is a little bit closer to Tampa Bay Downs than the Curragh...

Chart from Race 4 today:

ORDER AND LAW was hustled to the front, briefly challenged early on backstretch, regained control and remained clear into the stretch, dug in through drive, drifted out some passing sixteenth marker, made light contact with RIP CITY in final yards and lasted.

THE STEWARDS CONDUCTED AN INQUIRY INVOLVING THE INCIDENT NEARING THE WIRE AND LEFT THE ORIGINAL ORDER OF FINISH STAND RULING THAT DESPITE ORDER AND LAW DRIFTING OUT AND MAKING LIGHT CONTACT MADE IN DEEP STRETCH IT DID NOT WARRANT A DISQUALIFICATION.
Is it me or is Desormeaux riding better than he has in a long time recently?
Reply With Quote
  #49  
Old 05-23-2021, 07:25 PM
RolloTomasi's Avatar
RolloTomasi RolloTomasi is offline
Oriental Park
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 3,607
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dahoss View Post
Is it me or is Desormeaux riding better than he has in a long time recently?
Certainly getting a lot of support from some veteran trainers like Cerin, Sise, and Papaprodromou. Even Drysdale put him on one.

Maybe he's taken up a new religion where he does the opposite of every instinct or urge that pops into his head...

Either that or his agent tricked him into thinking the 7-furlong pole is the new finish line.
Reply With Quote
  #50  
Old 05-23-2021, 07:50 PM
Dahoss Dahoss is offline
Keeneland
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 10,295
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by RolloTomasi View Post
Certainly getting a lot of support from some veteran trainers like Cerin, Sise, and Papaprodromou. Even Drysdale put him on one.

Maybe he's taken up a new religion where he does the opposite of every instinct or urge that pops into his head...

Either that or his agent tricked him into thinking the 7-furlong pole is the new finish line.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Y_6fZGSOQI

Can’t imagine it’s too difficult to trick him either.
Reply With Quote
  #51  
Old 05-23-2021, 08:16 PM
RolloTomasi's Avatar
RolloTomasi RolloTomasi is offline
Oriental Park
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 3,607
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dahoss View Post
To be perfectly honest, I wouldn't think it a bad idea for the stewards in California to be required to undergo some sort of training program that indoctrinates the philosophy of "doing the opposite" prior to licensure.
Reply With Quote
Reply



Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 03:28 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.