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2020 Kentucky Derby contender watch
We’re only 6 months away from the Derby so I figured it might be useful to gather some thoughts about potential Derby contenders. I’ll be trying to get solid odds on some horses when the Pool 1 opens up later this month (I was lucky enough to put some money on Country House in pool 3 last year and locked him in at “great value” at 29-1. Disregard that he went off 65-1 on Derby Day.)
So far, we’ve got a few horses that have really stood out. My hope is to add some additional names and maybe have some conversations about what we like or don’t like about certain horses. Feel free to add any names that you think are worth keeping an eye on. Independence Hall - Winner of the G3 Nashua Stakes and owner of the crop’s first triple digit beyer figure. Storm the Court - Winner of the G1 BC Juvenile Tiz the Law - Winner of the G1 Champagne Stakes Structor - Winner of the G1 BC Juvenile Turf and who’s reportedly going to try dirt Maxfield - Winner of the G1 Breeders Futurity One horse that I really like is Green Light Go despite the recent loss to Tiz the Law. I think that he could really improve by May of next year so I’m going to keep a watch on him. |
#2
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South Bend - his victory at Churchill was impressive last time out, pretty professional for a two year old and he is in good hands.
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"Change can be good, but constant change shows no direction" http://www.hickoryhillhoff.blogspot.com/ |
#3
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...We’re only 6 months away from the Derby
6 months is an eternity in horse racing but bless them all.
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Support your local Re-run or horse rescue organization. https://www.rerunottb.com/:) |
#4
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Edit: Just read an article on HRN that there may have been an outside bias that day. Not sure if true but worth noting. |
#5
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I was trying to be tongue-in-cheek but I guess it doesn’t always convey over the Internet.
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#6
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I was hoping to add a few more names to the list after the last few weeks...but I'm not sure anyone has stood out.
A few names I didn't previously include: Dennis' Moment - Winner of the Iroquois Stakes. Only 2YO with a 90+ Beyer for a race over 1 mile. Absolutely destroyed the field when breaking his maiden. That field included Sounion who just broke his maiden with a solid 75 Beyer. Can forgive his performance at the Breeders Cup. Scabbard - I thought his trip in the Iroquois was compromised but he still finished well. It's possible he didn't like the track at Breeders Cup. He's worth keeping an eye on. Forza di Oro - Sired by Speightstown, you probably won't see this horse listed on many people's contender list...but his maiden win was really impressive as he altered out behind a wall of horses and then kicked it into gear. I think he wins the Remsen if he enters. |
#7
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He's supposed to run in the Remsen. I agree that he's interesting. It would be funny if Mott trained the horse that actually finished first in this year's Derby.
Personally, I think Dennis' Moment should be favored. His BC was meaningless. While Tiz the Law lost nothing in defeat in my opinion, I still think he's less likely to win the Derby than Dennis' Moment. I also think the Derby favorite is no better than 30:1, and anyone taking a significantly lesser price on any horse is foolish.
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Just more nebulous nonsense from BBB |
#8
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For me, I’ve got Independence Hall at the top of my list but really want to see him replicate that around two turns. After that, it’s probably Dennis’ Moment and Tiz the Law. I’ve got a feeling that we could have a new favorite after the Los Al Futurity. Every horse in that race seems to have great potential and if any of them win convincingly then we’ll see the hype train start rolling. That should be a tremendous race. As far as future wagers, they’re generally foolish bets but the gambler in me can’t pass up big odds on a horse that I like. I put some money on Green Light Go at 46-1 but even that seems like bad value given that he’s got a lot of question marks. |
#9
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Hi guys...
It’s been a long time since I posted; I hope you’re all well. I’d like your thoughts on Honor A.P. I know he’s just a maiden breaker, but I love his potential - and I adore his sire. Thanks ! |
#10
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Only 7 years, Betsy! Welcome back.. I adore his dam Hollywood Story (whom Shirreffs trained as well). He's a serious colt and we'll get an early read Saturday when he faces off against Thousand Words in the Los Al Futurity.
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans |
#11
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I wouldn’t be surprised if he won the Los Al and if he does, you might have a new derby favorite coming out of that race. |
#12
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I’ve got a few names written down for horses that haven’t raced yet. I’m wondering if anyone has heard anything on them?
Take Charge Curlin (Curlin-Take Charge Brandi, trained by Mark Casse) Time in Hand (Hard Spun-Queen Sheba, full brother to Hidden Scroll, trainer not listed) Theprinceofthebes (Pioneerof the Nile-Littleprincessemma, full brother to American Pharoah, I believe I saw he would be trained by Baffert?) |
#13
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Sole Volante (KY) been running on turf makes his next start
in the Mucho Macho Man @GP to see if he can dirt. Ran his last race in the Pulpit Stakes 1.33.02 He's a runner
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No one has ever bet enough on a winning horse. Richard Sasuly |
#14
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I’ll be interested to see what his running style in the Futurity is. He closed in his debut, but won on the lead in his maiden. I suspect that’s because Mike Smith didn’t want to fool around on the best horse. I’m excited about the race! |
#15
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I agree about Honor A.P. - and he looks like he’s floating; I love watching him run. |
#16
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But anyway - I’m very interested to see how the Los Al plays out. Looks like Eight Rings is out. It would be nice to see that field fill out a little. As of right now I think it’s only got 5 horses listed. |
#17
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I’m not convinced he can make the switch to dirt...but boy, if he can, that’ll be exciting.
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#18
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We’ll have to wait on Honor A.P. as he’s not running in the Futurity, but rather is pointing for the Sham Stakes. Last edited by Betsy : 12-04-2019 at 03:15 PM. |
#19
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I’m not either. His action looks very turfy.
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#20
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I thought the top 3 finishers in the Springboard Mile ran fairly well - Shoplifted, Answer In, and Embolden. Worth keeping an eye on them. I’m a little hesitant about Khozan colts...but Untitled looked very good in his debut this weekend at Gulfstream. And of course Anneau d’Or and Thousand Words looked good in the Los Al a couple weeks ago. It feels like everyone...or maybe it’s just me...is waiting for January 1 to see Independence Hall run in the Jerome. |
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