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Old 03-25-2013, 06:53 PM
Calzone Lord's Avatar
Calzone Lord Calzone Lord is offline
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Default Fasig Tipton Florida

Sales topper today was a Bernardini colt for $1,600,000

The most impressive preview I saw was #43 -- a Malibu Moon colt out of a mare named Right Place who sold to Stone Street for 550k.

I can't really knock anything the sales topper did -- but I will say, there were a dozen other horses in this sale who I think would take that horse apart in a 5.5 furlong sprint at Saratoga in a few months.

I've always believed, if you're buying at a 2yo sale, you should be buying for what a horse can do going 5.5fs a few months from now.

If not, you're barking up the wrong tree. The ROI of the very well bred and expensive types who don't get the bullet and don't stand out is absolutely miserable. Better off getting those as yearlings at a very significant discount imo.

Hell, the ROI of all of them is disastrous.
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Old 03-25-2013, 07:05 PM
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131 C Bernardini Hishi Aspen Hartley/de Renzo Thoroughbreds Agent Steven W Young, Agent $1,600,000
124 F A.p. Indy Foxy Danseur Stephens Thoroughbreds Llc Agent Green Hills Farm $1,100,000
130 C Bernardini Heart Of Grace Wavertree Stables Inc. (ciaran Dunne) Agent Dr Dermot O'byrne $950,000
19 F Smart Strike Music Room Hartley/de Renzo Thoroughbreds Agent Regis Farms $700,000
93 C Bernardini A Precious Memory Sequel Bloodstock (becky Thomas) Agent Three Chimneys Sales/solis $650,000

16 F Malibu Moon Miz United States De Meric Sales Agent Stonestreet Stables $625,000
87 C Tapit Winter Garden Hoby & Layna Kight Agent Dr Dermot O'byrne $625,000
22 F Tapit Nomistakeaboutit Stephens Thoroughbreds Llc Agent Lael Stable $575,000
60 C Pulpit Spritely Niall Brennan Stables Agent Xiii Maverick Racing Lp $560,000
43 C Malibu Moon Right Place Classic Bloodstock (danzel Brendemuehl) Agent Stonestreet Stables $550,000

109 C Tiznow Cool Storm Eddie Woods Agent Vi Three Chimneys Farm $525,000
73 C Old Fashioned Teruko Crupi's New Castle Farm My Meadowview Llc $500,000
85 C Unbridled's Song Wild Gams Secure Investments Charles Sandford $500,000
118 C Medaglia D'oro Elusive Diva Top Line Sales Llc Agent M Hennig For L Lewis & M Grier $500,000
66 F Dixie Union Sugar Canyon Niall Brennan Stables Agent Ii Regis Farms $485,000

82 C Ghostzapper Vaca City Flyer Murray Smith Agent Run Hard Stables $475,000
120 C Roman Ruler Fancy Deed Sgv Thoroughbreds (steven Venosa) Agent Barry Berkelhammer, Agent $400,000
102 C Exchange Rate Bubbly Baily Wavertree Stables Inc. (ciaran Dunne) Agent I Green Hills Farm $375,000
89 C War Front With Golden Wings Wavertree Stables Inc. (ciaran Dunne) Agent Iii Twin Creeks Racing Stable Llc $365,000

10 F Medaglia D'oro Maizelle Eddie Woods Agent Xii Steven W Young, Agent $350,000
96 C Tiznow Bayou Breeze Niall Brennan Stables Agent Vi Sallusto & Albina Agent $350,000
101 F Dixie Union Blue Sky High Cary Frommer Agent Hardacre Farm $350,000
1 F Malibu Moon Kelli Lee Ricky Leppala Agent Swifty Farms Inc $300,000
71 C Smart Strike Tejida Secure Investments Katsumi Yoshida $300,000

107 C Street Sense Classic Strike Eddie Woods Agent Xxi Steven W Young, Agent $300,000
119 C Speightstown Fair Rose Niall Brennan Stables Agent Iv Passion Stables Inc $285,000
128 C Elusive Quality Grace Anatomy Niall Brennan Stables Agent Iv Dr Mikel C Harrington, Agent $275,000
54 F Mr. Greeley Shy Greeting (arg) Sequel Bloodstock (becky Thomas) Agent Volt Resorses $270,000
83 C Harlan's Holiday Life's A Dance Scanlon Training Center Agent I Gatewood Bell, Agent $250,000

53 C Zensational Sharp Eyes Wavertree Stables Inc. (ciaran Dunne) Agent Vii Steven W Young, Agent $230,000
8 F Street Boss Magic Smoke Crupi's New Castle Farm Hardacre Farm $225,000
31 F Congrats Pelicus Affair Wavertree Stables Inc. (ciaran Dunne) Agent Ii Mccalmont Bloodstock $200,000
70 C Unbridled's Song Tale Of A Lady Stephens Thoroughbreds Llc Agent Perretti Racing $200,000
105 C Street Cry (ire) Candlelight Niall Brennan Stables Agent X Mike Ryan, Agent $185,000

38 C Dunkirk Ransom Bride Sequel Bloodstock (becky Thomas) Agent Eqb Agent For Cam Allard $170,000
94 F More Than Ready Audacious Niall Brennan Stables Agent Iii Ron Lombardi $170,000
81 F Ready's Image Unspoken Fur Wavertree Stables Inc. (ciaran Dunne) Agent Eqb Inc, Agent $160,000
5 F Tiznow Last Crown Murray Smith Agent Katsumi Yoshida $150,000
49 C Tiz Wonderful Schism Bobby Dodd Agent Donato Lanni, Agent $150,000

29 C Giant's Causeway Passion Bobby Dodd Agent Mark B Grier & Lee Lewis $145,000
36 F Pioneerof The Nile Princess Two Eddie Woods Agent Ix Regis Farms $145,000
75 F Tale Of The Cat Throw To Home Eddie Woods Agent Xxi Vanmeter Agent $135,000
41 C Elusive Quality Regal Engagement Sequel Bloodstock (becky Thomas) Agent Ron Lombardi $120,000
68 F Empire Maker Sweet Problem Hoby & Layna Kight Agent Passion Stable $100,000 Ps

69 F Exchange Rate Talented Top Line Sales Llc Agent Jack Bruner Agt For Tom Durant $85,000
46 F Curlin Sandra's Rose Wavertree Stables Inc. (ciaran Dunne) Agent Vii Michael Maker $65,000 Ps
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RNA'S
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112 C Indian Charlie Cradlesong Wavertree Stables Inc. (ciaran Dunne) Agent Iii Not Sold ($330,000)
88 C Malibu Moon Wishful Splendor Cary Frommer Agent Not Sold ($285,000)
114 C Unbridled's Song Daisyago Pike Racing Agent Not Sold ($235,000)
34 F Bernardini Preach It Niall Brennan Stables Agent V Not Sold ($225,000)
15 C First Samurai Miss Thermal Tech Crupi's New Castle Farm Not Sold ($220,000)
74 F Dixie Union Thedamewantstowin Wavertree Stables Inc. (ciaran Dunne) Agent Iii Not Sold ($210,000)
64 C Bernardini Street Of Peace Mckathan Bros Agent Not Sold ($190,000)
72 C Arch Tell It Hartley/de Renzo Thoroughbreds Agent Not Sold ($185,000)
39 F Malibu Moon Rebel Account Hartley/de Renzo Thoroughbreds Agent Not Sold ($170,000)
103 C Lemon Drop Kid Burnish Wavertree Stables Inc. (ciaran Dunne) Agent Ii Not Sold ($170,000)
12 C Mineshaft Mississippi Charm James Layden Agent Not Sold ($145,000)
26 F Henny Hughes Open Window Cary Frommer Agent Not Sold ($145,000)
28 C Malibu Moon Partyship Eddie Woods Agent Xxi Not Sold ($145,000)
117 F Empire Maker Dowell House Classic Bloodstock (danzel Brendemuehl) Agent Not Sold ($145,000)
126 F Tiz Wonderful Glitterbdancing Cary Frommer Agent Not Sold ($145,000)
132 C Curlin Hoh Buzzard (ire) Wavertree Stables Inc. (ciaran Dunne) Agent Vi Not Sold ($145,000)
80 F Tapit Unobstructed View Cary Frommer Agent Not Sold ($140,000)
23 F Bluegrass Cat Oatka Idas Destiny Cary Frommer Agent Not Sold ($120,000)
40 C Malibu Moon Referendum James Layden Agent Not Sold ($120,000)
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Old 03-25-2013, 07:21 PM
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Calzone Lord Calzone Lord is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept View Post
131 C Bernardini Hishi Aspen Hartley/de Renzo Thoroughbreds Agent Steven W Young, Agent $1,600,000
124 F A.p. Indy Foxy Danseur Stephens Thoroughbreds Llc Agent Green Hills Farm $1,100,000
130 C Bernardini Heart Of Grace Wavertree Stables Inc. (ciaran Dunne) Agent Dr Dermot O'byrne $950,000

Here are the two Bernardini colts:

* The $1,600,000 one worked comparable with Stay Thirsty in terms of time wise and being blinkered. This one is out of a Forestry mare though, where as Stay Thirsty's mare won at 12 furlongs. Stay Thirsty only cost $500,000 as well at this sale.

http://www.fasigtipton.com/fasig-tip...8ad87b4969d260


* Here is the Bernardini who was the third highest price of the sale at 900K

This horse, as far as I can tell, can't run at all. I don't care if it shows up at Delaware Park or Penn National for its debut, I will be betting against it.


http://www.fasigtipton.com/fasig-tip...8ad87b4969d260
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Old 03-25-2013, 09:39 PM
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Coup Verville Coup Verville is offline
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Hey Doug, on the second colt, what makes you think that about him? I'm not judging, I just need to know what people who are more seasoned in this sort of thing see what I don't see. Just trying to learn.
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Old 03-25-2013, 10:37 PM
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Originally Posted by Coup Verville View Post
Hey Doug, on the second colt, what makes you think that about him? I'm not judging, I just need to know what people who are more seasoned in this sort of thing see what I don't see. Just trying to learn.
My approach to 2yo sales is to study them and look for debut winners and debut bet againsts.

How fast they go is obviously the most important of the half dozen or so factors I emphasize.

Keep this in mind, 1/5th of a second is HUGE at this very short distance and very high rate of speed. It's more than a length and a half. If seven different horses ran a furlong in 10 flat over this track... than a horse who runs 10 3/5ths just got beat by almost 5 full lengths in a one-furlong race.

For a 10.60 to interest me at all ... I want to see a lot of excuses. I didn't see any with that horse. The horse had blinkers, the horse had an appropriate amount of run-up, the horse didn't lug into the rail, the horse didn't duck out sharply.

The only positive thing I can see is the horse was a Bernardini, and a lot of Bernardini's typically don't light it up and post bullets in these drills. However, the dam was a cheap speed horse by Exploit. She won her only race sprinting. She raced at River Downs, Hooiser, and Beulah Park and pressed the pace for a quarter and typically faded. The pedigree isn't too much of an excuse imo.

Why did the horse sell for $900,000?

* Bernardini's are very expensive and still popular. He gets a lot of top broodmare prospects.

* This horse is obviously very well made and put together. Even though the dam is way below avg for what Bernardini gets ... this horse RNA'd for 525K as a yearling. Not only is it a Bernardini, it's probably one of the very best looking ones.

* The fallacy that drives all 2-year-old sales ... people think any horse that can run an 1/8th of a mile in 10.60 has all kind of speed.

That simply isn't true. These horses get several hundred feet of run-up and they are accelerating to near top speed by the time they hit the pole. Where as in a race, they break from a gate at a stand still start and aren't near top speed until well after they hit the pole.

That is why a horse can run 10 flat for an 1/8th under sales conditions, but can't break 22 for a quarter in an actual race at many tracks unless he's absolutely gunned and the track is very fast.


Summing up the second colt. I think he is going to be very vulnerable in his debut. I don't think he's going to show much gate speed, I don't think he's going to show a lot of early speed, if he proves me wrong, he'll do it as a mid-pack miler or stalking router with races under his belt.

Basically ... he's a 525K yearling who parlayed a very mediocre 1f preview into a 900K tag.

If you're going to buy that type of horse ... buy it as a yearling for the discount. These type of expensive 2yo in training buys that perform mediocre in the preview almost never pan out. For every one that does , a great, great, great many are total busts.
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Old 03-26-2013, 08:47 AM
freddymo freddymo is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Calzone Lord View Post
Sales topper today was a Bernardini colt for $1,600,000

The most impressive preview I saw was #43 -- a Malibu Moon colt out of a mare named Right Place who sold to Stone Street for 550k.

I can't really knock anything the sales topper did -- but I will say, there were a dozen other horses in this sale who I think would take that horse apart in a 5.5 furlong sprint at Saratoga in a few months.

I've always believed, if you're buying at a 2yo sale, you should be buying for what a horse can do going 5.5fs a few months from now.

If not, you're barking up the wrong tree. The ROI of the very well bred and expensive types who don't get the bullet and don't stand out is absolutely miserable. Better off getting those as yearlings at a very significant discount imo.

Hell, the ROI of all of them is disastrous.
Yeah buying Mr. Mistoffles for 750k and having him crush in a 5.5f sprinter was an awesome move
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Old 03-26-2013, 08:50 AM
freddymo freddymo is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Calzone Lord View Post
My approach to 2yo sales is to study them and look for debut winners and debut bet againsts.

How fast they go is obviously the most important of the half dozen or so factors I emphasize.

Keep this in mind, 1/5th of a second is HUGE at this very short distance and very high rate of speed. It's more than a length and a half. If seven different horses ran a furlong in 10 flat over this track... than a horse who runs 10 3/5ths just got beat by almost 5 full lengths in a one-furlong race.

For a 10.60 to interest me at all ... I want to see a lot of excuses. I didn't see any with that horse. The horse had blinkers, the horse had an appropriate amount of run-up, the horse didn't lug into the rail, the horse didn't duck out sharply.

The only positive thing I can see is the horse was a Bernardini, and a lot of Bernardini's typically don't light it up and post bullets in these drills. However, the dam was a cheap speed horse by Exploit. She won her only race sprinting. She raced at River Downs, Hooiser, and Beulah Park and pressed the pace for a quarter and typically faded. The pedigree isn't too much of an excuse imo.

Why did the horse sell for $900,000?

* Bernardini's are very expensive and still popular. He gets a lot of top broodmare prospects.

* This horse is obviously very well made and put together. Even though the dam is way below avg for what Bernardini gets ... this horse RNA'd for 525K as a yearling. Not only is it a Bernardini, it's probably one of the very best looking ones.

* The fallacy that drives all 2-year-old sales ... people think any horse that can run an 1/8th of a mile in 10.60 has all kind of speed.

That simply isn't true. These horses get several hundred feet of run-up and they are accelerating to near top speed by the time they hit the pole. Where as in a race, they break from a gate at a stand still start and aren't near top speed until well after they hit the pole.

That is why a horse can run 10 flat for an 1/8th under sales conditions, but can't break 22 for a quarter in an actual race at many tracks unless he's absolutely gunned and the track is very fast.


Summing up the second colt. I think he is going to be very vulnerable in his debut. I don't think he's going to show much gate speed, I don't think he's going to show a lot of early speed, if he proves me wrong, he'll do it as a mid-pack miler or stalking router with races under his belt.

Basically ... he's a 525K yearling who parlayed a very mediocre 1f preview into a 900K tag.

If you're going to buy that type of horse ... buy it as a yearling for the discount. These type of expensive 2yo in training buys that perform mediocre in the preview almost never pan out. For every one that does , a great, great, great many are total busts.
The real question is: How does a River Downs rat find its way to 100k stallion
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Old 03-26-2013, 11:35 AM
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Originally Posted by freddymo View Post
Yeah buying Mr. Mistoffles for 750k and having him crush in a 5.5f sprinter was an awesome move
He won his debut big going 4.5 furlongs at Keeneland.

Only ran once more, stumbled at the start and injured himself in the Tremont and that was it.

If you think buying the real fast ones at the 2yo sales is a bad idea, compile up how you'd do if you bought up all the real expensive ones who weren't fast at all.

From a relative standpoint, buying the real fast ones will appear a brilliant strategy.
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Old 03-26-2013, 01:36 PM
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Drugs,

This thread is why I disagree with all of the young hairless Asian boys in the Erie area and think you are a stud. I can actually use this information...thanks again.
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Old 03-26-2013, 02:18 PM
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Calzone Lord Calzone Lord is offline
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That is a pretty vile way of giving a compliment.

I never focus on how a horse moves in the videos, or how a horse breaths during the preview, or how a horse looks, or how he feels after the work.

I let the market tell me all about that aspect of it after the horse sells. You'll know by the final sales price if there is a red-flag with something like that. And there are resources and people you can ask to find out a little more sometimes.

You only should focus on what can be measured.

And on what can't be measured, if you have a good understanding of what a horse should sell for, the final price will tell its own story.
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