Derby Trail Forums

Go Back   Derby Trail Forums > Stakes Archive
Register FAQ Members List Calendar Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 02-13-2020, 04:40 AM
Kasept's Avatar
Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 36,942
Default 2/15 (FG): Risen Star (2), Mineshaft, Rachel Alexandra, more



__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. -- Joseph Conrad

Last edited by Kasept : 02-13-2020 at 11:20 AM.
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 02-13-2020, 04:42 AM
Kasept's Avatar
Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 36,942
Default





__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. -- Joseph Conrad

Last edited by Kasept : 02-13-2020 at 11:22 AM.
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 02-13-2020, 12:48 PM
moses's Avatar
moses moses is offline
Churchill Downs
 
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 1,903
Default

Surprised to see Ny Traffic at 10-1 morning line.
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 02-13-2020, 01:41 PM
blackthroatedwind blackthroatedwind is offline
Jerome Park
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 9,394
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by moses View Post
Surprised to see Ny Traffic at 10-1 morning line.
...and not 50:1?
__________________
Just more nebulous nonsense from BBB
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 02-13-2020, 03:39 PM
moses's Avatar
moses moses is offline
Churchill Downs
 
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 1,903
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind View Post
...and not 50:1?
I think heís got a legit chance to win ..although thereís a reason that Iím a low stakes gambler and that no one is knocking down my door to make their morning lines.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 02-13-2020, 07:26 PM
blackthroatedwind blackthroatedwind is offline
Jerome Park
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 9,394
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by moses View Post
I think heís got a legit chance to win ..although thereís a reason that Iím a low stakes gambler and that no one is knocking down my door to make their morning lines.
I don't know what price he will be, but 10:1 sure seems like on the low end to me, but even though that trainer appears to be some sort of miracle worker, he sure doesn't look competitive in this race.

I've been wrong plenty of times before.
__________________
Just more nebulous nonsense from BBB
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 02-14-2020, 02:57 AM
Alabama Stakes's Avatar
Alabama Stakes Alabama Stakes is offline
Arlington Park
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: suffolk downs
Posts: 4,433
Default

First leg , race 12 of the split Risen Star looks way tougher than the other race of the split.

Risen Star was a cool hoss pickin em up and layin em down.
__________________
See Double, Bet Triples.
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 02-14-2020, 09:40 PM
knickslions2's Avatar
knickslions2 knickslions2 is offline
Flemington
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Ohio
Posts: 11,365
Default

Pace could get going in the second race. Major Fed is interesting if favorite doesnít fire
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 02-15-2020, 08:43 AM
moses's Avatar
moses moses is offline
Churchill Downs
 
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 1,903
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind View Post
I don't know what price he will be, but 10:1 sure seems like on the low end to me, but even though that trainer appears to be some sort of miracle worker, he sure doesn't look competitive in this race.

I've been wrong plenty of times before.
At first glance, I thought Ny Traffic might be the controlling speed and get a soft pace...but Iíve looked through the PPs and rewatched all the races and I doubt thatíll be the case. Iím not sure anyone in the race will be a huge challenge to Anneau díOr.
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 02-15-2020, 12:22 PM
Dunbar's Avatar
Dunbar Dunbar is offline
The Curragh
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 2,876
Default

In the 1st leg of the Risen Star, I don't understand the DRF's "Beyer Edge". DRF shows horses 2-8-1 having a "Beyer Edge", but #7's 94-81-84 last 3 Beyers look better than those of any other horse in the race. For example, #8's last 3 are 89-78-77.

I don't have PP's in front of me. Is the DRF giving some consideration to the length of the previous races or maybe the recency in listing its "Beyer Edge"?
__________________
Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar
photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
Reply With Quote
  #11  
Old 02-15-2020, 08:01 PM
moses's Avatar
moses moses is offline
Churchill Downs
 
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 1,903
Default

Modernist was a little faster than the Allowance race earlier in the day and probably would have been slower than Finite if she ran an extra half furlong. Iím not sure they should have split the race.
Reply With Quote
Reply


Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 02:51 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.