2/11: Tampa (5th-11th; X-C P5); Spot Plays (Sweet Life; C2C P5)

[Kasept]

TAMPA BAY DOWNS ~ CROSS COUNTRY P5


POST-SCRATCHES


5th: MSW, 3yo-F, 6f (P3, Hi-5)

Normally wouldn't start the day looking at this, but presence of Taiba sibling Tita Mimosa makes it interesting. Benny Feliciano is an assassin and Shenoah has some pedigree evidence that suggests win early potential though post is an issue. Harty sends Rekindled as well, a half to Maker stakes project Atone..

Most Likely: #9 Tita Mimosa 9-2 WON ($9.00)
Best Value: #11 Shenoah 20-1 7th
Next Best: #1 Relay 5-2 8th
Exotics Use: #4 Rekindled 6-1 9th


6th: ALW/N1X, F&M-4+. 8.5f-T (.20 Ultimate 6, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #7 Ianna's Quest 8-1 6th
Next Best: #9 Gabby Squared 6-1 8th
Exotics Use: #8 Sweet Dutchess 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #2 Sign of Peace 5-1 4th


7th: Minaret, F&M-4+, 6f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Caramel Swirl obvious class of field, but note she tries 6f for first time and Obligatory return 2 weeks ago provides cautionary tale..

Most Likely: #5 Caramel Swirl 7-5 4th
Best Value: #7 She's Peachy Keen 10-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Olivia Darling 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 My Destiny 5-1 3rd


TAM 8th: Pelican, 4+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Cross Country P5 starts here..

Sibelius has won at KEE, AQU, SAR, PIM and GP going 6f, 6.5f & 7f and has won without the lead. May be efficient way to lean to start difficult Cross Country P5 and Late TAM P4 sequences..

Most Likely: #5 Sibelius 9-5 WON ($5.20)
Best Value: #7 Uphold the Law 8-1 9th
Next Best: #3 Willy Boy 3-1 7th
Exotics Use: #2 Paco's Pico 8-1 5th


AQU 9th: Withers (G3), 3yo, 9f (DD)

Would love to get some prices involved here, but the 9f distance appears to play against candidates General Banker, Ninetypercentmaddie & Andiamo a Firenze..

Most Likely: #4 Hit Show 9-5 WON ($4.60)
Next Best: #3 Jungfrau 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Arctic Arrogance 8-5 2nd
Super Add: #5 General Banker 10-1 3rd


TAM 9th: Suncoast, 3yo-F, 1m-40y (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Wonder Wheel obviously the one to beat, but no picnic for Champion coming off layoff and there's no telling how many of these that are in form take typical sophomore steps forward. Using silly priced Wilkes Empire Maker Champagne Calling (30-1) as well as Chad Brown's Gun Runner Guns n' Graces (15-1). Both broke their maidens over the strip. Julia Shining needs to be faster at 3 than she was at 2 to impact this..

Most Likely: #1 Wonder Wheel 1-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 Champagne Calling 30-1 6th
Next Best: #9 Julia Shining 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Opus Forty Two 10-1 4th


OP 8th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 6f (P3, DD)

Cox fave Knocker Down clear one to beat, but did Jackman (8-1) learn a new trick last time rallying from off the pace for 2nd?

Most Likely: #10 Knocker Down 2-1 10th
Best Value: #6 Jackman 8-1 WON ($28.60)
Next Best: #5 Uncle Buddy 9-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Absolute Chaos 8-1 5th


TAM 10th: Sam F. Davis (G3), 3yo, 8.5f (DD, Hi-5)

If Dubyuhnell returns at 3 how he left at 2, he'll almost certainly win. But Tampa is a quirky surface that's not to the liking of every visitor. That said, chance for wet would appear to aid his cause. Pletcher, who has won this 6 times, invades with Litigate whose 2 starts are progressive, while Prairie Hawk is 2 for 2 for Saffie shipping in to Oldsmar. Mott tosses Art Collector sib Classic Legacy into mix and hard to ignore anything from barn right now..

Best Value: #11 Litigate 5-1 WON ($7.60)
Next Best: #7 Dubyuhnell 9-5 8th
Exotics Use: #2 Prairie Hawk 6-1 9th
Super Add: #3 Classic Legacy 12-1 4th


NYRA BETS X-C P5 Grid:

TAM 8: 5 (A), - (B), 3-7 (C)
AQU 9: 3-4 (A), 1 (B), - (C)
TAM 9: 1-4 (A), 2-9 (B), - (C)
OP 8: 6-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
TAM 10: 7-11 (A), 2-3 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x3x4x2x4 = $96
All A's: 1x2x2x2x2 = $16
Backup: 2x2x2x2x2 = $32


11th: MSW, 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (Hi-5)

Clement (Cirilla) & Brown (Financial Advice/Lovers Rock) firsters square off against ones with experience from Hamm (Lil Miss Moonlight), Dutrow (Juniper's Moon/Just a Splash), Delacour (In the Know) & Motion (Thegirlfromireland). Tricky nightcap to outstanding Preview Dat slate..

Most Likely: #5 Financial Advice 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Juniper's Moon 5-1 WON ($11.60)
Best Value: #7 In the Know 30-1 10th
Exotics Use: #10 Lovers Rock 6-1 6th


P5 Grid:

7: 5 (A), - (B), 7-8 (C)
8: 5 (A), - (B), 3-7 (C)
9: 1-4 (A), 2-9 (B), - (C)
10: 2-7-11 (A), 3-9 (B), - (C)
11: 5-6-7-10 (A), 3-12 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x1x4x5x6 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 1x1x2x3x4 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backups: 2x1x2x3x4 = 48 x .50 = $24 (7-8 in 7th) + 1x2x2x3x4 = 48 x .50 = $24 (3-7 in 8th)


P4 Grid:

8: 5 (A), - (B), 3-7 (C)
9: 1-4 (A), 2-9 (B), - (C)
10: 2-7-11 (A), 3-9 (B), - (C)
11: 5-6-7-10 (A), 3-12 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x4x5x6 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 1x2x3x4 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backups: 2x2x3x4 = 48 x .50 = $24 (3-7 in 8th)



SPOT PLAYS


POST-SCRATCHES


SANTA ANITA 9th: Sweet Life, 3yo-F, 6.5f-DHT (DD, Hi-5)

Favored Manhattan Jungle the filly to beat, but Ragtime Rose (from hot Mullins/Berrios team) has perfect scenario for assignment returning to sprint trip..

Best Value: #2 Ragtime Rose 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Manhattan Jungle 5-2 WON ($4.20)
Exotics Use: #8 Excella 6-1 7th
Super Add: #10 Fun Money 6-1 4th

TRI KEY: 2-4 with 2-4 with 7-8-10 + 2-4 with 7-8-10 with 2-4 = 2x1x3 = $6 + 2x3x1 = $6 = $12

$1 TRIFECTA (4-2-7) Paid $126.10


Coast to Coast P5 Grid:

GP 8: 1-2-3-4 (A), - (B), - (C)
SA 3: 4-5-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
GP 9: 3-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
SA 4: 2 (A), - (B), - (C)
GP 10: 3-4-5 (A), - (B), - (C)

All A's: 4x3x2x1x3 = $72


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

TAM SCR/CHG'S

[Kasept]

Surprised Tito Mimosa paid $9.00. Was lucky to hang on.

[Kasept]

So I guess it's just the Mott F&M sprinters that aren't running. Caramel Swirl WORSE than Obligatory there.. Yikes.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Kasept

So I guess it's just the Mott F&M sprinters that aren't running. Caramel Swirl WORSE than Obligatory there.. Yikes.

Such a weird spot for her return, especially on a track that some horses just flat out do not handle.

I wish I was clever enough to come up with the winner because I didn't like Caramel Swirl in this spot.

[Kasept]

Hot cha cha.. That’s a day maker. Jackman did learn a new trick last time.