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  #41  
Old 07-24-2013, 10:47 AM
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Total Invested: $400
Total Returned: $279
Net: -$121
$2 ROI: $1.40

Wednesday, July 24

Early Pick 4:

2nd: It's tough to get past the lack of speed in here. I'd love to pitch #4 Profetiza completely, because she hasn't run fast enough yet to win this and in her last race she got the benefit of an absurdly easy lead, but she will probably be loose against this field as well, so I have to use. I prefer #2 Montana Native though. She kept good company at Gulfstream and her last at CD was a good building block for the 2nd half of her season. Most importantly, she has the tactical speed to track Profetiza and get first run on the closers. #1 Parc Monceau made the first, wide move in the 5/26 BEL race that totally collapsed while the winner saved all the ground and rallied from further off. Hushion has gotten a chance to know her since and passes on a potential N1X to run her in this stake. Rosario opts for Montana Native, but Velazquez picks up the mount and Parc Monceau also has enough tactical speed not to be too far out of it. I respect #3 Tap Twenty One and #5 Flash Forward and will use them as C's, but I think the pace will work against them.

3rd: This is a tough race, with a lot of ways to go, but the pace in this 9-furlong test should be more taxing than the previous race's, with Belief System and Liberty Wing very likely to show speed and potential early foot coming from blinkered Town Hall and perhaps Beachview Too. #2 Nevada ran his best race since being claimed by Orseno two-back, albeit with a good setup, it's a setup he might get again today. The turf experiment didn't work out, but he's a major contender returning to dirt. #1 Town Hall drops in class off a wide-early-move-and-fade trip against some tough N1X 3YOs last out. He has to be used, but Rosario has to avoid getting sucked up into a speed duel. #3 Bedouin Now's in too good form for me to ignore him. His race two-back fits with these and he's versatile enough to adapt to different pace scenarios. I'll also use #5 Summer Sands, who drops off a layoff and a disappointing effort at PIM, but goes out for the ever-dangerous McLaughlin barn and will likely get a solid pace to run into.

4th: #6 Callana is the horse to beat off back-to-back 2nds against very nice horses Midnight Watch and Zip Up, but this field could have some good ones in it also at some decent prices. #3 Celtic Arch and #8 Industrial Policy are the obvious other horses. Celtic Arch was only beaten a length by Callana with a worse setup in that last race, while Industrial Policy took a while to switch leads in her turf debut but closed strongly once she did. I'm also interested in #5 Samiam for Weaver, who popped at 19-1 with a 2nd-time starter on Monday. Samiam was unnecessarily sent up on a fast pace in her two-turn debut and paid for it in the lane. She's eligible to improve a good deal with a more patient ride this time. #1 Go Baby Go Go jumped forward in her move to turf last summer and put in a big close in a race with a slow pace, running her last 1/4 in :22.63. The obvious issue is she hasn't been seen since (347 days) and Jim Baker is not good off layoffs, but she'll be a big price and could benefit if the pace gets hot between Shortbread Scotty, Forever Road, etc.

5th: I went over my thoughts on this race in the C/O discussion thread. #1 Work N Flirt is the horse to beat, but I like #7 Lady Halite. She did nothing but attend fast paces at 3, mostly going further. Her turf return race wasn't bad and now Kenneally reaches out to his main man Lezcano for her return to what she's likely supposed to do, sprint on the dirt. I'll also use #4 Mama Zee, who needs to improve some off her debut, but was caught wide in there and faces a slightly softer field today.

$.50 1,2,4/1,2,3,5/1,3,5,6,8/1,4,7 $90
$.50 2,3,5/1,2/6/1,7 $6
Race 4 $4 WIN 5

Last edited by ateamstupid : 07-24-2013 at 11:08 AM.
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  #42  
Old 07-24-2013, 02:12 PM
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Sweet
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  #43  
Old 07-24-2013, 02:13 PM
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Originally Posted by ateamstupid View Post
Total Invested: $400
Total Returned: $279
Net: -$121
$2 ROI: $1.40

Wednesday, July 24

Early Pick 4:

2nd: It's tough to get past the lack of speed in here. I'd love to pitch #4 Profetiza completely, because she hasn't run fast enough yet to win this and in her last race she got the benefit of an absurdly easy lead, but she will probably be loose against this field as well, so I have to use. I prefer #2 Montana Native though. She kept good company at Gulfstream and her last at CD was a good building block for the 2nd half of her season. Most importantly, she has the tactical speed to track Profetiza and get first run on the closers. #1 Parc Monceau made the first, wide move in the 5/26 BEL race that totally collapsed while the winner saved all the ground and rallied from further off. Hushion has gotten a chance to know her since and passes on a potential N1X to run her in this stake. Rosario opts for Montana Native, but Velazquez picks up the mount and Parc Monceau also has enough tactical speed not to be too far out of it. I respect #3 Tap Twenty One and #5 Flash Forward and will use them as C's, but I think the pace will work against them.

3rd: This is a tough race, with a lot of ways to go, but the pace in this 9-furlong test should be more taxing than the previous race's, with Belief System and Liberty Wing very likely to show speed and potential early foot coming from blinkered Town Hall and perhaps Beachview Too. #2 Nevada ran his best race since being claimed by Orseno two-back, albeit with a good setup, it's a setup he might get again today. The turf experiment didn't work out, but he's a major contender returning to dirt. #1 Town Hall drops in class off a wide-early-move-and-fade trip against some tough N1X 3YOs last out. He has to be used, but Rosario has to avoid getting sucked up into a speed duel. #3 Bedouin Now's in too good form for me to ignore him. His race two-back fits with these and he's versatile enough to adapt to different pace scenarios. I'll also use #5 Summer Sands, who drops off a layoff and a disappointing effort at PIM, but goes out for the ever-dangerous McLaughlin barn and will likely get a solid pace to run into.

4th: #6 Callana is the horse to beat off back-to-back 2nds against very nice horses Midnight Watch and Zip Up, but this field could have some good ones in it also at some decent prices. #3 Celtic Arch and #8 Industrial Policy are the obvious other horses. Celtic Arch was only beaten a length by Callana with a worse setup in that last race, while Industrial Policy took a while to switch leads in her turf debut but closed strongly once she did. I'm also interested in #5 Samiam for Weaver, who popped at 19-1 with a 2nd-time starter on Monday. Samiam was unnecessarily sent up on a fast pace in her two-turn debut and paid for it in the lane. She's eligible to improve a good deal with a more patient ride this time. #1 Go Baby Go Go jumped forward in her move to turf last summer and put in a big close in a race with a slow pace, running her last 1/4 in :22.63. The obvious issue is she hasn't been seen since (347 days) and Jim Baker is not good off layoffs, but she'll be a big price and could benefit if the pace gets hot between Shortbread Scotty, Forever Road, etc.

5th: I went over my thoughts on this race in the C/O discussion thread. #1 Work N Flirt is the horse to beat, but I like #7 Lady Halite. She did nothing but attend fast paces at 3, mostly going further. Her turf return race wasn't bad and now Kenneally reaches out to his main man Lezcano for her return to what she's likely supposed to do, sprint on the dirt. I'll also use #4 Mama Zee, who needs to improve some off her debut, but was caught wide in there and faces a slightly softer field today.

$.50 1,2,4/1,2,3,5/1,3,5,6,8/1,4,7 $90
$.50 2,3,5/1,2/6/1,7 $6
Race 4 $4 WIN 5
$.50 Pick 4 pays $476.25
$4 win pays $21.60
Total $497.85

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  #44  
Old 07-24-2013, 02:14 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ateamstupid View Post
$.50 Pick 4 pays $476.25
$4 win pays $21.60
Total $497.85

Go gettum
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  #45  
Old 07-24-2013, 02:15 PM
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Good Job Joey!
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  #46  
Old 07-24-2013, 02:19 PM
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Nice work Joey!
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  #47  
Old 07-24-2013, 02:21 PM
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Nice
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  #48  
Old 07-24-2013, 02:28 PM
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nice job joey..it was just a matter of time
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  #49  
Old 07-24-2013, 03:34 PM
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Great job, Joey!
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  #50  
Old 07-24-2013, 03:59 PM
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Nice work today. You talked me into Nevada in the third!! Keep it rolling
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  #51  
Old 07-24-2013, 04:40 PM
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Well done Oey!
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Old 07-24-2013, 05:44 PM
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Thanks all! Let's keep it rolling tomorrow.
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  #53  
Old 07-24-2013, 05:48 PM
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Good job Joey -- let's keep it goin'!
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  #54  
Old 07-24-2013, 08:43 PM
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Nice work, congrats!
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  #55  
Old 07-25-2013, 10:40 AM
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Total Invested: $500
Total Returned: $776.85
Net: +$276.85
$2 ROI: $3.11

After taking it on the chin Sunday and Monday, it was satisfying to convert on some good opinions yesterday and get solidly back in the black heading into the teeth of Week Two. Profetiza proved to be a good play-against in the first leg and though I got lucky when heavy chalk Town Hall blew the far turn in the 3rd, it's still about having the horse to benefit from such fortune. Overlaid Nevada and trusty George Weaver helped boost the potential payout and Mama Zee took advantage of a fast pace to close the deal in the last leg. Finding success at Saratoga is all about avoiding starts and stops, so let's dig in to Thursday's interesting card and build some momentum.

The bookend legs of this sequence will have heavily favored and imposing Pletcher firsters, but with the 3rd looking like a scramble, you need only beat one of them to produce a worthwhile return.

2nd: #1 Corfu brings a Barrett's March sales-topping $675,000 purchase price and a super best-of-43 half-mile from the gate Friday to the table. It's entirely reasonable to think he blasts out of the gate and never looks back. He does, however, draw the rail in a 5-furlong dash, so his margin for error at the start is slim. I'm interested in two others, particularly #2 Aarons Orient. The modestly bred bay sold for 15 times his sire's stud fee after putting up a :10 furlong at OBS April and I'm intrigued by his worktab. Asmussen has never been the type to let his horses fly in the mornings, but take a look at this one's three gate breezes: 6/19 4f in :47.80 (4th of 46), 6/26 4f in :47.20 (1st of 22), 7/15 5f in 1:00.20 (5th of 18). Fast works on the page are much more meaningful if they're uncharacteristic for the trainer and that fits here. #6 Pure Sensation goes out for Clement, who's known much more for his work with 2YO turf routers 1st out than 2YO dirt sprinters, but it's not as if he's incapable in these spots with the right horse, and Pure Sensation may be that. By the brilliant Zensational, son of Unbridled's Song, he's out of multiple stakes winning NJ-bred Pure Disco. Mike Welsch gave Pure Sensation rave reviews for his pre-meet Time Trial win. He's value at anything near his 12-1 M/L price. #5 Crescent is most likely a runner too. He's out of the fast and precocious Grade 1 placed sprinter Lovely Isle and shows some quick breezes. Like most Mott firsters in these spots though, he'll probably need a race.

3rd: Though I'll use her defensively, I'm against the likely favorite in here, #4 She's Coal Fired. After an OK 2nd in her Churchill debut, she challenged Yes Liz in her next start for a 1/4 mile before completely throwing in the towel. Wesley Ward's 2YOs usually show what they're going to show early on and don't get better with more racing, so the idea that she'll not only return to her debut but produce the improvement likely necessary to win this is not a good betting proposition, especially as the chalk. I prefer two of the firsters. #2 Thundering Gale looks dangerous. Kenneally is 11-for-35 ($2.24 ROI) with 2YOs 1st time out in maiden claiming dirt sprints and this filly is a full sister to GSP sprinter Knights Cross (98 BSF top). Being a homebred by a $2,000 sire, the fact that she debuts for a tag isn't the negative it would be for some other horses. #6 Friends Pro is out of a productive dam and reportedly looked very good in her 7/15 gate work. #5 Icing On the Cake is eligible to improve a lot adding Lasix 2nd time out for Ian Wilkes. #1 Chase My Tail broke last and was steadied early in her debut, then rushed up after the eventual winner before fading in the lane. It could be a different ballgame with a clean break, but there's also the chance she's not that good.

4th: Familiar NY-bred stakes fillies meet up going 7f. I like #1 Beautiful But Blue, even though she's coming off four straight losses against some of these horses. Her 2nd race off the layoff was a much improved effort. She was part of a fast pace from which the frontrunner finished last, beaten 22 3/4 and the other chaser was 4th, beaten 6. She was headed at the 1/8 pole by Miss Valentine but still battled gamely to only lose by a half-length and I think the cutback, plus the return to Saratoga, where her two best performances came, will help her turn the tables. #5 Willet is the other horse I want. She was terrible in her comeback race, but any of her last three races before the layoff can win this and obviously if she runs anything close to her Iroquois, they're all running for 2nd. I think it's a positive that the barn reaches out to Rosario as well. I don't want #2 Clear Pasaj, who took advantage of a dull Beautiful But Blue to win the Dancing Renee on a soft pace. I'll use the consistent #3 Miss Valentine as a B, but I think if either Beautiful But Blue or Willet run their A race, she won't be good enough to win.

5th: This looks like the race Pletcher is more likely to win. $325,000 OBS March purchase and Stopchargingmaria workmate #6 Our Amazing Rose is posted well outside and doesn't run up against many good 1st-out barns, with two Albertranis, a Contessa and a Shug in the race. The only one that looks interesting is Trombetta firster Jerry Love, by win-early sire Not for Love and a full sister to stakes-winning sprinter Akronism. Her drills have been as consistent as a metronome and include several five-furlong breezes, so she should be ready to go 1st out. #5 Zip On got bet 1st out, made a fairly easy lead and gave it up in the stretch in a slow race.

$.50 1,2,6/1,2,4,5,6/1,3,5/4,6 $45
$1.50 1,2,6/2,6/1,5/6 $18
$1 1/1,2,4,5,6/1,3,5/6 $15
Race 5 $8 DBL 6/7,8 $16
Race 5 $3 DBL 4/7,8 $6

Last edited by ateamstupid : 07-25-2013 at 12:29 PM.
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  #56  
Old 07-25-2013, 04:59 PM
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Not a good idea trying to beat Todd and Clear Pasaj once again benefited from a dull Beautiful But Blue. Should've gone after late sequence instead. On to tomorrow.
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Old 07-26-2013, 11:44 AM
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Total Invested: $600
Total Returned: $776.85
Net: +$176.85
$2 ROI: $2.59

Friday, July 26

Really fascinating card today. One deep, competitive race after another and both Pick 4 sequences look like they'll pay well, but I'll stick with the early one, as it looks slightly easier to handle.

2nd: Tough race where cases can be made for almost anyone. #10 I Jus Wana Hav Fun looks like the speed of the speed and the horse to beat from the outside and takes a big drop in class for Scherer after dueling with stakes-bound Uno Duo in her last start. If she can run back to her most recent FG races, she'll win. She's my A. #9 Tanglewood Tale chased two sharp speedballs in her last two in Classic Point and Sing Dixie Sing and can win with her good race. #6 Seven Dreams is a consistent filly who shows up with her race no matter what barn she's in and is fast enough to win. #5 Revealing Moment isn't good enough on paper, but is lightly-raced and in her only start with Lasix, she ran up against Princess of Sylmar over the AQU inner. They're my B's. My C's will be #1 Voodoo Tales and #4 Group Therapy, both of whom stepped forward in their maiden-breakers last time out, but must improve again to win this.

3rd: I was extremely impressed with the race #1 Brabbham ran last out, doing all the dirty work on a fast pace and just kept going, narrowly getting run down by two perfect-trip closers late. He's been given time to recover from that big effort and is working well; the horse to beat. #5 Sliver and Onions ran well in his last, was the last survivor of the pace battle and beaten late by a very promising Michelle Nevin firster. #2 King of Broadway took a lot of money in his debut on Derby day at CD, broke poorly, came with a decent close and figures to improve for Mott with more distance. He's 12-for-41 with a $2.23 ROI with 2nd time out dirt maidens going sprint-to-route. #6 Howie's Tiz was a very good 2nd to Curlin entrant Bad Hombre two back, then caught a speed-favoring track last time out. He's a full to Rush Now, who was much better going longer and I've been a fan of this horse since his debut late-running 3rd to Honorable Dillon last summer.

4th: #1A Read the Research is clearly the horse to beat after attending a fast pace going longer in a NY-bred stake last out. Simply put, if she runs back to her last race, she's going to win. I'll use her with one B and one C. If Castellano doesn't hard-send, #2 Currency Union could be the beneficiary with a switch to a higher % and much more aggressive rider. Her last two efforts aren't good enough, but hopefully she's rounding back to that 5/3 race, which would give her a shot against the favorite. #3 Nothing But Air beat pretty much nothing but air in her debut, but exploded away in the stretch and appears to be working well for her return. The issues are obviously the much stiffer competition and the layoff, as well as closing into what figures to be a moderate pace.

5th: #1 The Lady Says Yes is a must bet-against in here, who's now lost three times as the favorite and another at 5-2 and had absolutely no excuse in her return race. Her connections are sure to make her overbet and if she wins, that's fine, but she's a horse you're supposed to play against. The other major factor in this race is the absurdly high figures the horses coming out of that 7/7 BEL race have gotten:

Runner - Finish - Beaten Lengths - Previous Top BSF - 7/7 BSF - Subsequent BSF (if applicable)
Golden Cheetah 1st -- 53 - 77
Chrissy Girl 2nd neck 63 - 76
Eddy's Time 3rd 3/4 58 - 75
Raven Rise 4th 1 54 - 75
You So Smart 5th 1 3/4 29 - 73
Transplendid 6th 2 1/4 62 - 72 - 47
Love Is Key Kaz 7th 3 1/4 58 - 70
Life's a Stage 8th 3 1/2 58 - 69
Familyofroses 9th 4 1/2 65 - 67
Ampa's Girl 10th 6 1/2 60 - 63
See See See 11th 13 42 - 48

If you believe the Beyers, every single horse ran a new top in that race and the first eight horses all ran 11+ points better than they ever have before. I'll be docking 10 points from every horse who comes out of that race, which you could argue might be a little conservative.

I'm interested in #8 Sakonnet Point, who Jonathan Sheppard was likely just getting a race into 1st out at DEL. He saw fit to ship her to NY to run against statebreds, she returns with his customary five-furlong turf breeze and picks up Rosie, who has tremendous numbers when riding for this barn. The others I want are #3 Sophie's Turn, who took a lot of money for Serpe 1st out and made a decent close after a poor start and #4 Coriander, who needs to take a small step forward but is eligible to do so 2nd off the bench in a race she can potentially control up front. I'll use the two from the 7/7 race who had the toughest trips in there. #10 Familyofroses was steadied to last at the break, got stuck behind a slow pace and made a laughably wide move on the far turn before understandably flattening out. She deserves another shot, but the pace may play against her again today. #2 You So Smart was closer to that slow pace, but lost a lot of ground from the 10-hole, got shut off in midstretch and had nowhere to run in the final furlong. She draws better in here and could carve out a good stalking trip in behind Coriander.

$.50 5,6,9,10/1,2,5,6/1,2/2,3,4,8,10 $80
$.50 1,4,10/1,6/1/2,3,4,8 $12
$.50 10/1,6/3/2,3,4,8 $4
$.50 10/1,6/1/1 $1
Race 5 $3 WIN 8

Last edited by ateamstupid : 07-26-2013 at 12:04 PM.
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  #58  
Old 07-26-2013, 01:38 PM
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Argh. Currency Union almost saw it through at a ridiculous 18-1. The positive rider switch to an underrated jockey angle strikes again.
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Old 07-26-2013, 02:11 PM
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Ouch. Bad beat.
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  #60  
Old 07-26-2013, 02:13 PM
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Ouch. Bad beat.
That was tough, sorry!
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