Blue Grass & Ark Derby

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Let me get his straight, DrugS: GQ took advantage of the SLOW pace,

Yes.

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

which worked AGAINST the closers.

More pace would have aided Hold Me Back and Terrain imo.

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

But the REST of the field, which backed up in the stretch, wasn't helped by the slow pace?

The ones on it were helped ... and could have faded a little more with a quicker pace.


Pace isn't as strong a factor on the outcome of a race on syn and turf as it is on good ole fashinoned dirt .. but it still plays something of a roll in the outcome.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Yes.



More pace would have aided Hold Me Back and Terrain imo.




The ones on it were helped ... and could have faded a little more with a quicker pace.


Pace isn't as strong a factor on the outcome of a race on syn and turf as it is on good ole fashinoned dirt .. but it still plays something of a roll in the outcome.

There nothing controversial here. I agree with it all.

Now, don't you think that I Want Revenge, bad start and all, actually got a perfect trip, in terms of setup, in the Wood?

[packerbacker7964]

I throw the Poly Track results out of the window when firguring when a horse runs back to dirt. I hate the stuff, I will always hate the stuff and I'll never be able to figure the stuff out. With that being said screw every track that has it. I've quit betting the races on it all together. I'll bet Oaklawn, The Duct, Gulfstream, Belmont and Toga to name a few and leave the other's to themselves. Comparing the Blue Grass to the Ark. Derby is crazy to me. Where have the Best Three-Old colts raced the last 5-7 years. OAKLAWN that's where. Curlin, Afleet Alex, Smarty Jones and Hard Spun.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Now, don't you think that I Want Revenge, bad start and all, actually got a perfect trip, in terms of setup, in the Wood?

I believe he was lucky in that the pace was as strong as it was - yes.

The vast majority of people will tell you the trip IWR had in the Wood was worse than the one GQ had in the Tampa Derby .. and they'd be bigtime wrong. All because of the pace each horse had in front of him.

Obviously it doesn't mean GQ's Tampa Derby performance was better than IWR's Wood performance - because IWR ran about 20 points faster.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I believe he was lucky in that the pace was as strong as it was - yes.

The vast majority of people will tell you the trip IWR had in the Wood was worse than the one GQ had in the Tampa Derby .. and they'd be bigtime wrong. All because of the pace each horse had in front of him.

Obviously it doesn't mean GQ's Tampa Derby performance was better than IWR's Wood performance - because IWR ran about 20 points faster.

sadly, i missed the wood. i know he had a bad start-but that doesn't exactly equal a bad trip? once he got going, did he have clear sailing from the get go? all i've heard is how he overcame the start-but that doesn't tell the whole tale.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by packerbacker7964

I throw the Poly Track results out of the window when firguring when a horse runs back to dirt. I hate the stuff, I will always hate the stuff and I'll never be able to figure the stuff out. With that being said screw every track that has it. I've quit betting the races on it all together. I'll bet Oaklawn, The Duct, Gulfstream, Belmont and Toga to name a few and leave the other's to themselves. Comparing the Blue Grass to the Ark. Derby is crazy to me. Where have the Best Three-Old colts raced the last 5-7 years. OAKLAWN that's where. Curlin, Afleet Alex, Smarty Jones and Hard Spun.

i'm not crazy about poly-but they still payoff when you cap the races right. we had a great two days at arlington, and i'd love to go back and give it another whirl. and you know i'm a traditionalist and prefer dirt.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Danzig

sadly, i missed the wood. i know he had a bad start-but that doesn't exactly equal a bad trip? once he got going, did he have clear sailing from the get go? all i've heard is how he overcame the start-but that doesn't tell the whole tale.

You can watch it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nXnoZvpaDEY

NT

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

You can watch it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nXnoZvpaDEY

NT

thanks. altho i would like some insight from drugs anyway.

[Danzig]

'overcoming trouble almost throughout'

i think that's an overstatement by the announcer. he had one momentary check at the top of the stretch-other than that, seemed a pretty clean trip. nice run for the win. thanks again tamm.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I believe he was lucky in that the pace was as strong as it was - yes.

The vast majority of people will tell you the trip IWR had in the Wood was worse than the one GQ had in the Tampa Derby .. and they'd be bigtime wrong. All because of the pace each horse had in front of him.

Obviously it doesn't mean GQ's Tampa Derby performance was better than IWR's Wood performance - because IWR ran about 20 points faster.

No doubt. The only difference is that you're looking at the races in terms of numeric pace while I'm considering the shape/dynamics. I'm not sure that there's a one2one (and onto) relationship between these two but they do concur in the case of the Wood. The poor break and the patient ride allowed IWR to last move a tired field.

GQ's last race is not as transparent as one would want in the charts but the replay shows that he got the worst of it. Of course, he also wiped-out the field in the Sam Davis (as did the runner up in the Blue Grass in his previous start).

Using the Fat Charts and replays can be revealing.
Some of those straight lines he draws
(or should I say Excel draws) at the different
calls are not in reality straight, but if you couple those with
the replays it is usually obvious.

Its a good visual organizer along with the replays.
For those that dont take to straight numbers.

[Bobby Fischer]

IWR's Wood isn't all that clear cut.

Clearly IWR and 'Bernie got the best set-ups

The field in the Wood was awful for a grade 1. Imperial Council was the only one who figured to have a chance to have any talent, and he ran like a total dud

IWR won easily , but it isn't all that clear cut.

I think he is one of the top Derby Horses and will bet accordingly, but if he no-shows I won't be shocked

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

He didn't exactly break great either...

no, he didn't. it was a nice run. now, to just ignore his trainer. and his part owner. ugh.

[HaloWishingwell]

IWR did was beat the types that he beat by 8 lengths in the Gotham