Thompson SERIOUSLY BLEW IT

the_fat_man · #1 04-11-2009, 08:17 PM

When your horse, that had the lead and was passed, runs its projeced last quarter a FULL SECOND faster than its previous one, in other words, has enough to ACCELERATE to the wire, it follows that you've WAITED TOO LONG to shake it up.

This is almost exactly what happened to Hard Spun in the Derby.

Danzig · #2 04-11-2009, 08:18 PM

i think rick porter blew it by changing jocks. wouldn't be the first time.

philcski · #3 04-11-2009, 08:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

When your horse, that had the lead and was passed, runs its last 1/8th in what projects to be a FULL SECOND faster than its previous quarter, in other words, has enough to ACCELERATE to the wire, it follows that you've WAITED TOO LONG to shake it up.

This is almost exactly what happened to Hard Spun in the Derby.

Oaklawn is notorious for producing odd fractions at a mile and an eighth. The horse just doesn't know how to 'turn off' and relax. He has a lot of talent but if he's ever going to stretch out he's got to stop running off early in longer races. The horses that ran with him early finished last and second last...

Danzig · #4 04-11-2009, 08:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

Oaklawn is notorious for producing odd fractions at a mile and an eighth. The horse just doesn't know how to 'turn off' and relax. He has a lot of talent but if he's ever going to stretch out he's got to stop running off early in longer races. The horses that ran with him early finished last and second last...

i think old fashioned will do ok at shorter, but i don't think he's a mile and a quarter horse. someone said go to the met mile, i agree!

King Glorious · #5 04-11-2009, 08:25 PM

My respect for Old Fashioned ability went up 100% after today. He's a game horse with a lot of talent. That said, I don't think they should go to the Derby. No point. The Mile Mile is crying out for him and he'd have a real shot at that race. Also, as Philski mentioned, that downhill finish at Oaklawn often produces weird finishing times.

Danzig · #6 04-11-2009, 08:29 PM

i thought it was uphill?? lol hell, i've seen it said both ways, so who knows?

#7 04-11-2009, 08:30 PM

And this is shocking?

The guy was mediocre at Ellis Park year in and year out. Of course he's going to nut up in a big money race.

Bobby Fischer · #8 04-11-2009, 08:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

When your horse, that had the lead and was passed, runs its projeced last quarter a FULL SECOND faster than its previous one, in other words, has enough to ACCELERATE to the wire, it follows that you've WAITED TOO LONG to shake it up.

This is almost exactly what happened to Hard Spun in the Derby.

This is an interesting take.

The contrary opinion would be that OF finished well because of the slower penultimate quarter.

I think he could have asked earlier and he would have had the added benefit of not having Papa Clem "weighing down on him" from the outside the length of the stretch. Take it a step further and he could have come off the rail a little bit as well...

interesting that Papa Clem gets up to even terms while Thompson (red cap) is peeking behind him

Danzig · #9 04-11-2009, 08:36 PM

i can't believe old fashioned got bet down like that.

Bobby Fischer · #10 04-11-2009, 08:38 PM

It was a weak field on paper

Travis Stone · #11 04-11-2009, 08:47 PM

In terms of Beyer's it was basically a two horse race, with Win Willy's big number under consideration as well.

Bobby Fischer · #12 04-11-2009, 08:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

In terms of Beyer's it was basically a two horse race, with Win Willy's big number under consideration as wel.

I underestimated PC after he was beaten so easily on a moderate-paced lead in the slop. Maybe he hates the slop? Maybe FF is that much better ?

KirisClown · #13 04-11-2009, 08:57 PM

Old Fashioned won't be racing anywhere for a while..

http://www.drf.com/news/article/102938.html

tbonds · #14 04-11-2009, 09:07 PM

Old Fashion and Win Willy are good 2 tier Horses. By looking back, Willies only big race was the Rebel. Other than that 35k,30k,15k races. I was fooled.
Old Fashion if he goes to the Derby need to find a great Jockey that can do the horse some justice.Now PC will make a splash.

mclem0822 · #15 04-11-2009, 09:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KirisClown

Old Fashioned won't be racing anywhere for a while..

http://www.drf.com/news/article/102938.html

I'm sorry for Larry Jones, I'm glad it isn't life threatening.

tbonds · #16 04-11-2009, 09:18 PM

What the story with Old Fashion?

Travis Stone · #17 04-11-2009, 09:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tbonds

Old Fashion and Win Willy are good 2 tier Horses. By looking back, Willies only big race was the Rebel. Other than that 35k,30k,15k races. I was fooled.
Old Fashion if he goes to the Derby need to find a great Jockey that can do the horse some justice.Now PC will make a splash.

Old Fashioned is a really good race horse... because he's not 10 furlong Derby material doesn't mean he's not grade one. To me, he would have King's Bishop written all over him, unfortunately, he's hurt/out.

King Glorious · #18 04-11-2009, 09:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tbonds

What the story with Old Fashion?

His career is over. Non-displaced slab fracture in his right knee.

PeteMugg · #19 04-11-2009, 09:23 PM

Very sorry to read about Old Fashioned's injury. But I thought this race was over from the beginning as for as OF is concerned. The last thing I expected with that post was a sprint to the lead and hanging up such a number for the first quarter. Especially after the jock change.

Bobby Fischer · #20 04-11-2009, 09:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious

His career is over. Non-displaced slab fracture in his right knee.

please link to this updated decision to definitely retire him.