Derby Trail Forums

Go Back   Derby Trail Forums > Main Forum > The Paddock
Register FAQ Members List Calendar Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 04-11-2009, 06:04 PM
Travis Stone's Avatar
Travis Stone Travis Stone is offline
Oaklawn
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Louisiana
Posts: 2,229
Default Interesting Developments

The Derby Trail is fun because you can over-analyze stuff and have an excuse for doing so. After today's results, there are some fairly interesting considerations:

* Papa Clem, who had a pretty good trip in the La. Derby, was man-handled by Friesan Fire. Papa Clem comes back to win today, what does that say about Friesan Fire?

* General Quarters beat Musket Man, Musket Man comes back to win the Illinois Derby, while General Quarters beats synthetic horses on their own turf. Is the West Florida contingent this good?

* Papa Clem is an okay horse on both surfaces, yet he lost to Pioneerof The Nile. Love POTN or hate him, you have to have a few ounces of respect for him.

* Terrain will likely finish 3rd or 4th in the Kentucky Derby, because it's what he does.

* Who is the pace in the Kentucky Derby now?
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 04-11-2009, 06:07 PM
Hoist Her Flag Hoist Her Flag is offline
Turf Paradise
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 241
Default pace

If Old Fashioned goes he's the pace. How about Regal Ransom? Was on the pace in all 3 races in the desert. Alan Garcia up and by Distorted Humor?
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 04-11-2009, 06:07 PM
cowgirlintexas's Avatar
cowgirlintexas cowgirlintexas is offline
Santa Anita
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Mortyville, USA
Posts: 3,077
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Travis Stone
The Derby Trail is fun because you can over-analyze stuff and have an excuse for doing so. After today's results, there are some fairly interesting considerations:

* Papa Clem, who had a pretty good trip in the La. Derby, was man-handled by Friesan Fire. Papa Clem comes back to win today, what does that say about Friesan Fire?

* General Quarters beat Musket Man, Musket Man comes back to win the Illinois Derby, while General Quarters beats synthetic horses on their own turf. Is the West Florida contingent this good?

* Papa Clem is an okay horse on both surfaces, yet he lost to Pioneerof The Nile. Love POTN or hate him, you have to have a few ounces of respect for him.

* Terrain will likely finish 3rd or 4th in the Kentucky Derby, because it's what he does.

* Who is the pace in the Kentucky Derby now?
Definitely some food for thought... Going to be a great betting race for sure and some juices prices. Hard to come out with a clear cut choice this year.
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 04-11-2009, 06:11 PM
King Glorious's Avatar
King Glorious King Glorious is offline
Atlantic City Race Course
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Beaumont, CA
Posts: 4,607
Default

Pioneer was the big winner of the day. Horses that can't beat him in Cali are leaving and running huge and winning big races on dirt.

Friesan Fire is as good as I thought. Jones seemed to think all along that Old Fashioned was better but the horse that FF beat just beat Old Fashioned. I think Jones was wrong.

I think Musket Man is that good. I still don't think General Quarters is.
__________________
The real horses of the year (1986-2020)
Manila, Java Gold, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Go for Wand, In Excess, Paseana, Kotashaan, Holy Bull, Cigar, Alphabet Soup, Formal Gold, Skip Away, Artax, Tiznow, Point Given, Azeri, Candy Ride, Smarty Jones, Ghostzapper, Invasor, Curlin, Zenyatta, Zenyatta, Goldikova, Havre de Grace, Wise Dan, Wise Dan, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Arrogate, Gun Runner, Accelerate, Maximum Security, Gamine
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 04-11-2009, 06:17 PM
Payson Dave's Avatar
Payson Dave Payson Dave is offline
The Curragh
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 2,647
Default

A couple of months back, I seem to remember hearing Jones suggest that FF might be as good or even better than OF
__________________
....stay lady stay...stay while the night is still ahead...

http://www.playlist.com/playlist/15640118795/standalone
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 04-11-2009, 06:18 PM
Betsy Betsy is offline
Randwyck
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 1,303
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by King Glorious
Pioneer was the big winner of the day. Horses that can't beat him in Cali are leaving and running huge and winning big races on dirt.

Friesan Fire is as good as I thought. Jones seemed to think all along that Old Fashioned was better but the horse that FF beat just beat Old Fashioned. I think Jones was wrong.

I think Musket Man is that good. I still don't think General Quarters is.
But POTN still hasn't run on dirt - maybe he beat those horses because he's better on the synthetics than they are. We still have no idea if POTN will take to the dirt.
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 04-11-2009, 06:18 PM
South Beach Luv's Avatar
South Beach Luv South Beach Luv is offline
The Curragh
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Chicago W Burbs
Posts: 2,630
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Travis Stone
The Derby Trail is fun because you can over-analyze stuff and have an excuse for doing so. After today's results, there are some fairly interesting considerations:

* Papa Clem, who had a pretty good trip in the La. Derby, was man-handled by Friesan Fire. Papa Clem comes back to win today, what does that say about Friesan Fire?

* General Quarters beat Musket Man, Musket Man comes back to win the Illinois Derby, while General Quarters beats synthetic horses on their own turf. Is the West Florida contingent this good?

* Papa Clem is an okay horse on both surfaces, yet he lost to Pioneerof The Nile. Love POTN or hate him, you have to have a few ounces of respect for him.

* Terrain will likely finish 3rd or 4th in the Kentucky Derby, because it's what he does.

* Who is the pace in the Kentucky Derby now?
It makes me wonder what would of happened if the track would of been fast that day
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 04-11-2009, 06:20 PM
jwkniska's Avatar
jwkniska jwkniska is offline
Fairgrounds
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Mt. Prospect, IL (AP)
Posts: 1,575
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by King Glorious
Pioneer was the big winner of the day.
I disagree. The big winner of the day was Dunkirk, as the usuals came in 1-2 in Ark... so nobody passed him in graded earnings from the race.
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 04-11-2009, 06:21 PM
jwkniska's Avatar
jwkniska jwkniska is offline
Fairgrounds
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Mt. Prospect, IL (AP)
Posts: 1,575
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Payson Dave
A couple of months back, I seem to remember hearing Jones suggest that FF might be as good or even better than OF
You're absolutely correct. He did say that, and so far was a great assessment.
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 04-11-2009, 06:28 PM
CSC's Avatar
CSC CSC is offline
Arlington Park
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 4,408
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by King Glorious
Pioneer was the big winner of the day. Horses that can't beat him in Cali are leaving and running huge and winning big races on dirt.

Friesan Fire is as good as I thought. Jones seemed to think all along that Old Fashioned was better but the horse that FF beat just beat Old Fashioned. I think Jones was wrong.

I think Musket Man is that good. I still don't think General Quarters is.
I already pointed out last week that POTN was a real value pick in the futures at 11-1, though it is fair to ask the question how will he fare on traditional dirt, it doesn't hurt that horses he has beaten are coming back to win big derby preps. To add another spin, I would say Baffert is a better dirt trainer than on syth tracks. He will be very interesting.
Reply With Quote
  #11  
Old 04-11-2009, 06:30 PM
randallscott35's Avatar
randallscott35 randallscott35 is offline
Idlewild Airport
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: USA
Posts: 9,687
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by jwkniska
I disagree. The big winner of the day was Dunkirk, as the usuals came in 1-2 in Ark... so nobody passed him in graded earnings from the race.
Good point.
Reply With Quote
  #12  
Old 04-11-2009, 06:34 PM
Bobby Fischer's Avatar
Bobby Fischer Bobby Fischer is offline
Oaklawn
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 2,401
Default

Not sure whether or not the Arkansas Derby was any good, after only a couple brief viewings.
Reply With Quote
  #13  
Old 04-11-2009, 06:45 PM
hockey2315 hockey2315 is offline
Del Mar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 5,403
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by King Glorious
Pioneer was the big winner of the day. Horses that can't beat him in Cali are leaving and running huge and winning big races on dirt.
Exactly
Reply With Quote
  #14  
Old 04-11-2009, 06:48 PM
Travis Stone's Avatar
Travis Stone Travis Stone is offline
Oaklawn
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Louisiana
Posts: 2,229
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoist Her Flag
If Old Fashioned goes he's the pace. How about Regal Ransom? Was on the pace in all 3 races in the desert. Alan Garcia up and by Distorted Humor?
I read somewhere that Regal Ransom is somewhat iffy?
Reply With Quote
  #15  
Old 04-11-2009, 06:50 PM
sdjcom's Avatar
sdjcom sdjcom is offline
Oaklawn
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 2,163
Default

I would not be surprised to see a west coast trifecta in derby, i believe John white just might be correct in his thinking syn-tracks to dirt building horses up for dirt.
Reply With Quote
  #16  
Old 04-11-2009, 06:52 PM
Travis Stone's Avatar
Travis Stone Travis Stone is offline
Oaklawn
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Louisiana
Posts: 2,229
Default

I'll also add that in terms of Old Fashioned, I would probably go. Not only is there little pace, and maybe you can get lucky, but you'll help setup the pace for your stablemate.
Reply With Quote
  #17  
Old 04-11-2009, 07:01 PM
blackthroatedwind blackthroatedwind is offline
Jerome Park
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 9,931
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Travis Stone
The Derby Trail is fun because you can over-analyze stuff and have an excuse for doing so. After today's results, there are some fairly interesting considerations:

* Papa Clem, who had a pretty good trip in the La. Derby, was man-handled by Friesan Fire. Papa Clem comes back to win today, what does that say about Friesan Fire?

* General Quarters beat Musket Man, Musket Man comes back to win the Illinois Derby, while General Quarters beats synthetic horses on their own turf. Is the West Florida contingent this good?

* Papa Clem is an okay horse on both surfaces, yet he lost to Pioneerof The Nile. Love POTN or hate him, you have to have a few ounces of respect for him.

* Terrain will likely finish 3rd or 4th in the Kentucky Derby, because it's what he does.

* Who is the pace in the Kentucky Derby now?

One at a time.....

Maybe Papa Clem hated the mud....and more it says that the Arkansas Derby field sucked ( Old Fashioned is OK but severly distance challenged ).

General Quarters had a lousy trip in the Tampa Bay Derby, beat crows today, and probably improved on the fake turf.

Pioneer of the Nile is a turf/synthetic horse who barely beat dirt horses on a surface they didn't particularly care for....but will drown him on their preferred surface ( and his least favorite surface ) in a few weeks.

Terrain is a complete mediocrity who can't even make a dent in a race that fell in his lap on his preferred surface.

I supposed Old Fashioned is the main speed, unless his connections are smart enough to skip the Derby and run in the Met Mile, and that will have little affect on the race. But, without seeing all the pps this is a tougher one to answer.
__________________
Just more nebulous nonsense from BBB
Reply With Quote
  #18  
Old 04-11-2009, 07:02 PM
blackthroatedwind blackthroatedwind is offline
Jerome Park
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 9,931
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Travis Stone
I read somewhere that Regal Ransom is somewhat iffy?

He makes a great rabbit for Desert Party.
__________________
Just more nebulous nonsense from BBB
Reply With Quote
  #19  
Old 04-11-2009, 07:10 PM
Scurlogue Champ's Avatar
Scurlogue Champ Scurlogue Champ is offline
Formerly 'moodwalker'
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Louisville
Posts: 1,727
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
He makes a great rabbit for Desert Party.
He surely does.
Reply With Quote
  #20  
Old 04-11-2009, 07:11 PM
justindew's Avatar
justindew justindew is offline
Fairgrounds
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 1,640
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Pioneer of the Nile is a turf/synthetic horse who barely beat dirt horses on a surface they didn't particularly care for....but will drown him on their preferred surface ( and his least favorite surface ) in a few weeks.
What are you basing this on? The fact that he's never run on dirt, or the fact that he's bred to like dirt?
Reply With Quote
Reply


Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 04:40 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.