Derby Trail Forums

Go Back   Derby Trail Forums > Triple Crown Topics/Archive..
Register FAQ Members List Calendar Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #241  
Old 05-14-2017, 10:49 PM
richard burch's Avatar
richard burch richard burch is offline
Churchill Downs
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: new jersey
Posts: 1,751
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes View Post
unless it comes up muddy again, he will be hot and dirty. Would have been nice if Someone mentioned he had a good mud foot . One would think with all the people there, that someone would have noticed. I guess you don't notice unless you put your racing form or iPad down once in a while and look at the hosses.




I don't get the insult, but OK..and I don't have an IPAD
__________________
Support your local Re-run or horse rescue organization.
https://www.rerunottb.com/:)
Reply With Quote
  #242  
Old 05-14-2017, 11:16 PM
raininthrees raininthrees is offline
Les Bois
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 26
Default

one of the more comfortable bet against propositions, is with any horse doing something he/she has never done, with fast turn around for a young fiery horse, at different track, and do we know what will happen and what kind of horse he is if he doesn't have lead and needs to pass other talented colts at top of stretch? all this for between 4/5-9/5 odds enjoy...
Reply With Quote
  #243  
Old 05-14-2017, 11:26 PM
Alabama Stakes Alabama Stakes is offline
Havre de Grace
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: suffolk downs
Posts: 5,811
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by raininthrees View Post
one of the more comfortable bet against propositions, is with any horse doing something he/she has never done, with fast turn around for a young fiery horse, at different track, and do we know what will happen and what kind of horse he is if he doesn't have lead and needs to pass other talented colts at top of stretch? all this for between 4/5-9/5 odds enjoy...

Good post. Much not to like about Always Dreaming and his dream run in the derby
Reply With Quote
  #244  
Old 05-16-2017, 09:40 PM
richard burch's Avatar
richard burch richard burch is offline
Churchill Downs
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: new jersey
Posts: 1,751
Default

Should read.....

Always Dreaming likely to defeat 9 in Preakness
__________________
Support your local Re-run or horse rescue organization.
https://www.rerunottb.com/:)
Reply With Quote
  #245  
Old 05-17-2017, 06:26 AM
RHT2004 RHT2004 is offline
Atlantic City Race Course
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 4,829
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by raininthrees View Post
one of the more comfortable bet against propositions, is with any horse doing something he/she has never done, with fast turn around for a young fiery horse, at different track, and do we know what will happen and what kind of horse he is if he doesn't have lead and needs to pass other talented colts at top of stretch? all this for between 4/5-9/5 odds enjoy...
Nonsense. Im not his biggest fan, but he rates kindly. Did he pass horses in the Fla Derby?
Reply With Quote
  #246  
Old 05-17-2017, 01:20 PM
philcski's Avatar
philcski philcski is offline
Goodwood
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Mission Viejo, CA
Posts: 8,872
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind View Post
I'm not interested in the chart. I watched the race, and particularly the start, quite a few times. Nobody got "crushed." Hyperbole is a dangerous thing.

If people rely on the chart comments in KY for their wagering decisions, they are broke.
And that's what makes this game great Andy... I saw a lot more trouble at the start than you did. Neither of us is wrong.
__________________
please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you
Reply With Quote
  #247  
Old 05-17-2017, 08:36 PM
Kasept's Avatar
Kasept Kasept is online now
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 42,544
Default

__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
Reply With Quote
  #248  
Old 05-17-2017, 10:02 PM
richard burch's Avatar
richard burch richard burch is offline
Churchill Downs
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: new jersey
Posts: 1,751
Default

4/ w 5-1-3/ w 5-1-2-3-9 trifecta

Winna Winna Chicken Dinna!
__________________
Support your local Re-run or horse rescue organization.
https://www.rerunottb.com/:)
Reply With Quote
  #249  
Old 05-17-2017, 10:27 PM
Alabama Stakes Alabama Stakes is offline
Havre de Grace
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: suffolk downs
Posts: 5,811
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by richard burch View Post
4/ w 5-1-3/ w 5-1-2-3-9 trifecta

Winna Winna Chicken Dinna!
More like a ham sandwich
Reply With Quote
  #250  
Old 05-18-2017, 06:20 AM
Dunbar's Avatar
Dunbar Dunbar is offline
The Curragh
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 2,962
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by philcski View Post
And that's what makes this game great Andy... I saw a lot more trouble at the start than you did. Neither of us is wrong.
Does anyone have a replay link that includes the head-on view of the start?

After reading BTW's comments I went back to watch the replays again, and I'd have to agree with him that in the standard overhead view, the start doesn't look that bad. However, it was the head-on view that I remember showing CE being bumped sideways extremely hard, almost off his feet. I don't totally trust my memory here, but I couldn't find a link that shows anything more than the standard network race replay, without the head-ons.
__________________
Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar
photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
Reply With Quote
  #251  
Old 05-18-2017, 06:57 AM
Weary Weary is offline
Sam Houston
 
Join Date: Apr 2017
Posts: 14
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dunbar View Post
Does anyone have a replay link that includes the head-on view of the start?

Head on replay of Always Dreaming winning the 2017 Kentucky Derby
Reply With Quote
  #252  
Old 05-18-2017, 08:35 AM
robfla robfla is offline
Calder Race Course
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Strategically between Calder and Gulfstream
Posts: 1,892
Default

Thanks. Excellent view. It can be looked at differently by each person, but all I see is McCraken bumping CE and pushing CE to the inside of the track - where he probably wanted to be anyways. IMO, its marginal if the start cost CE any final positioning.
Reply With Quote
  #253  
Old 05-18-2017, 08:59 AM
Alabama Stakes Alabama Stakes is offline
Havre de Grace
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: suffolk downs
Posts: 5,811
Default

Those hosses who ran 1-2 got the best trips for sure
Reply With Quote
  #254  
Old 05-18-2017, 11:19 AM
Port Conway Lane Port Conway Lane is offline
Randwyck
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 1,463
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by robfla View Post
Thanks. Excellent view. It can be looked at differently by each person, but all I see is McCraken bumping CE and pushing CE to the inside of the track - where he probably wanted to be anyways. IMO, its marginal if the start cost CE any final positioning.
The flow in the run to the first turn was steady and the field separation was ideal for minimizing ground loss on the turn. I thought it was one of the more uneventful runs to the first turn comparatively speaking.

Hence was the only horse losing ground to the field in the 1st 1/16 of a mile which can be seen on the overhead view ( yellow cap with black silks ) . Hence actually got a good start despite the chart caller's " in tight at the break " comment. Once he checked out of his position Geroux yanked him toward the rail right outside of Lookin at Lee. He was further outrun by LAL throughout the remainder of the race so it's difficult for me to make a case for him.Though given the Preakness post positions it wouldn't surprise if he gets first run on LAL for the underneath slots.

Last edited by Port Conway Lane : 05-18-2017 at 11:33 AM.
Reply With Quote
  #255  
Old 05-18-2017, 04:27 PM
Dunbar's Avatar
Dunbar Dunbar is offline
The Curragh
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 2,962
Default

Thanks!

It still looks like a violent hit on Classic Empire and a stumble to me, but I can see how others might view it differently.

Also interesting is the view at about 1:10, where all but the front 4 have a solid coating of mud on their heads and front quarters. That can't have been pleasant. By the end of the race, there was one black horse and 18 mud-caked brownish greys.
__________________
Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar
photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
Reply With Quote
  #256  
Old 05-18-2017, 04:31 PM
declansharbor's Avatar
declansharbor declansharbor is offline
Hialeah Park
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Exit 30
Posts: 6,357
Default

Not sure if I've seen this anywhere or not, but it looked to me that Classic Empire's trouble at the start was some of his own doing, no?

The horses to his outside did him no favors, but it seemed to me that CE broke and his first few steps out of the gate were to his right. That said, shouldn't Leparoux have known that the horses in the auxiliary gate were to be coming inward for position sake??
__________________
"A person who saw no important difference between the fire outside a Neandrathal's cave and a working thermo-nuclear reactor might tell you that junk bonds and derivatives BOTH serve to energize capital"

- Nathan Israel
Reply With Quote
  #257  
Old 05-18-2017, 05:56 PM
cakes44's Avatar
cakes44 cakes44 is offline
The Curragh
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 2,733
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by declansharbor View Post
Not sure if I've seen this anywhere or not, but it looked to me that Classic Empire's trouble at the start was some of his own doing, no?

The horses to his outside did him no favors, but it seemed to me that CE broke and his first few steps out of the gate were to his right. That said, shouldn't Leparoux have known that the horses in the auxiliary gate were to be coming inward for position sake??
Leparoux don't give two sh!ts about the break in any race ever.
Reply With Quote
  #258  
Old 05-18-2017, 09:00 PM
Dunbar's Avatar
Dunbar Dunbar is offline
The Curragh
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 2,962
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by declansharbor View Post
Not sure if I've seen this anywhere or not, but it looked to me that Classic Empire's trouble at the start was some of his own doing, no?

The horses to his outside did him no favors, but it seemed to me that CE broke and his first few steps out of the gate were to his right. That said, shouldn't Leparoux have known that the horses in the auxiliary gate were to be coming inward for position sake??
I agree, Classic Empire definitely made things worse by taking a couple steps toward the outside.
__________________
Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar
photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
Reply With Quote
  #259  
Old 05-19-2017, 08:10 PM
cakes44's Avatar
cakes44 cakes44 is offline
The Curragh
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 2,733
Default

This race has merry-go-round written all over it. AD + CMM with CE really close as long as Julien doesn't have his head up his @ss, and they just cruise around the track and it's an even more boring race than the Derby.
Reply With Quote
  #260  
Old 05-20-2017, 01:02 AM
taxicab's Avatar
taxicab taxicab is offline
Ellis Park
 
Join Date: Nov 2015
Posts: 484
Default

As a rule of thumb I avoid second choices with a passion,but I think Classic Empire is the one on Saturday.
Reply With Quote
Reply


Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 05:09 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.