Who Will Be The Pace Setter In The Derby?

[CSC]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

They were legit.

Using your theory on speed being brutal on synth tracks in this case specifically SA, weren't you be impressed by Papa Clem in the Robert Lewis when he almost wired the field, in that race was IWR and POTN.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by CSC

Using your theory on speed being brutal on synth tracks in this case specifically SA, weren't you be impressed by Papa Clem in the Robert Lewis when he almost wired the field, in that race was IWR and POTN.

I bet I Want Revenge in that race - he had a dream trip and ran like a complete dog biscuit.

The pace was awfully slow in that race - and if it would have been run on dirt POTN would have never had a prayer.

I didn't think much of the race other than POTN was clearly the best horse in the race on that track .. and that IWR stinks on that track.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I bet I Want Revenge in that race - he had a dream trip and ran like a complete dog biscuit.

The pace was awfully slow in that race - and if it would have been run on dirt POTN would have never had a prayer.

I didn't think much of the race other than POTN was clearly the best horse in the race on that track .. and that IWR stinks on that track.

I don't know if anyone else agrees but all 3 of these horses pailed in comparison to The Pamplemousse, the more I think about it he would have been my horse if he were running in the Derby had he not gotten hurt, to me he was the most impressive 3 yr old I saw to this point, the only question mark he had was could be handle dirt, my opinion would have been a resounding yes.

[Bobby Fischer]

pamplemousse would never have gotten 10 furlongs on the dirt. He wouldn't get 9 furlongs at Keeneland either.

He was a talented horse who could control the pace and whose aptitude for turf was carrying him farther than his genetic ability over that pro-ride surface.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

pamplemousse would never have gotten 10 furlongs on the dirt. He wouldn't get 9 furlongs at Keeneland either.

He was a talented horse who could control the pace and whose aptitude for turf was carrying him farther than his genetic ability over that pro-ride surface.

Are you sure? You weren't watching the same races I was watching, I know a distanced challenged Kafwain argument is not far way, all I know is he had a high cruising speed and he certainly didn't look distance challenged the way he won his races.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by CSC

Are you sure? You weren't watching the same races I was watching, I know a distanced challenged Kafwain argument is not far way, all I know is he had a high cruising speed and he certainly didn't look distance challenged the way he won his races.

we'll never know , maybe he would have won the KY Derby.

I base opinion on the following

his conduit mare stamina index is extremely poor. Worse than nearly all 2009 derby contenders, and worse than any derby winner in at least the last 30 years

my observation that horses who like the pro-ride surface can race and train at longer distances than they normally could
-related that Pamplemousse has good breeding for a turf sprinter, and he has a high knee action in his stride which also hints that he likes turf.

Being by Kafwain probably doesn't help, I'm not too sire oriented but it probably isn't a big positive

I think he would be fine on dirt, just that he would quit after a mile or so

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

he has a high knee action in his stride which also hints that he likes turf.

You do realize they said the same thing about Barbaro? I do think at times we are too engrossed with pedigree when we should just concentrate if a horse can run.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by CSC

Using your theory on speed being brutal on synth tracks in this case specifically SA, weren't you be impressed by Papa Clem in the Robert Lewis when he almost wired the field, in that race was IWR and POTN.

That's a poor interpretation of the Robert Lewis.

[DogsUp]

The debate between the two is stupid and irrational. You are coming up with countless hypotheticals without knowing all the information. However, it makes for good "chat board conversation,"

[CSC]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

That's a poor interpretation of the Robert Lewis.

I was more or less addressing a thread where Drugs pointed out Well Armed couldn't hold a lead in a race when he ran on SA Pro ride as to what some feel is a closer friendly surface, but he did move up quite substantially I might add when he ran on Dubai dirt, that is why I posed the question as to what his thoughts were of Papa Clem and shouldn't this philosophy apply to this horse.

My point is even if this horse turns out to be a slug, if Pro ride is closer biased artificial turf. Shouldn't Papa Clem's race be upgraded?

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by CSC

I was more or less addressing a thread where Drugs pointed out Well Armed couldn't hold a lead in a race when he ran on SA Pro ride as to what some feel is a closer friendly surface, but he did move up quite substantially I might add when he ran on Dubai dirt, that is why I posed the question as to what his thoughts were of Papa Clem and shouldn't this philosophy apply to this horse.

My point is even if this horse turns out to be a slug, if Pro ride is closer biased artificial turf. Shouldn't Papa Clem's race be upgraded?

He's the chart for the race. I don't think that PC's effort should be upgraded. The race clearly favored on the pace horses. And, the fact that the majority of them stuck around is good evidence that the pace was slow (for those that choose to look at it from that perspective).

Either way, POTN ran huge.

And, maybe, IWR's effort wasn't that bad, given the circumstances, as he was the only one to make any kind of move other than the winner

[CSC]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

He's the chart for the race. I don't think that PC's effort should be upgraded. The race clearly favored on the pace horses. And, the fact that the majority of them stuck around is good evidence that the pace was slow (for those that choose to look at it from that perspective).

Either way, POTN ran huge.

I know... we are in agreement that pro ride should be termed a fair surface. I read your posts...

[CSC]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

He's the chart for the race. I don't think that PC's effort should be upgraded.

Your chart indicated PC & IWR having almost identical trips, visually I was more impressed by PC's race rather than POTN, anyone other than Gomez riding and I probably wouldn't say so. Typical Gomez to get up, needless to say I think they both ran good races.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by CSC

Your chart indicated PC & IWR having almost identical trips, visually I was more impressed by PC's race rather than POTN, anyone other than Gomez riding and I probably wouldn't say so. Typical Gomez to get up, needless to say I think they both ran good races.

I didn't think that to be the case: the chart clearly shows IWR to have run the better race -- or, at least, a distinctive race.

I took a look at the race to see why you thought PC's race was 'visually' impressive. I found IWR 1 path wider on each turn and drifting significantly in the lane (not Talamo's best effort). Of course, POLY experts will tell you that saving ground is not significant on that surface.

But, it's increasing become LESS about what I see in the race and MORE about what the charts indicate. And, when Trakus becomes commonplace (and we have more calls in addition to more accurate ones) then I probably won't be watching many replays at all. 'Visually' impressive trips can only get me so far as most horses are really not much better than their setup on a given day.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I didn't think that to be the case: the chart clearly shows IWR to have run the better race -- or, at least, a distinctive race.

I took a look at the race to see why you thought PC's race was 'visually' impressive. I found IWR 1 path wider on each turn and drifting significantly in the lane (not Talamo's best effort). Of course, POLY experts will tell you that saving ground is not significant on that surface.

But, it's increasing become LESS about what I see in the race and MORE about what the charts indicate. And, when Trakus becomes commonplace (and we have more calls in addition to more accurate ones) then I probably won't be watching many replays at all. 'Visually' impressive trips can only get me so far as most horses are really not much better than their setup on a given day.

Discussing race dynamic is precarious but I thought PC got pressed by IWR on the turn, it looked like IWR was going by with big MO, usually a horse that makes that type of move will end up winning a race, however PC was able to re-rally. Regardless whether IWR is not as good on Synth than dirt, I liked that fight in PC, in addition POTN was so deep in the track I'm not sure PC could see him out there. This is all debatable stuff but one thing I do like about Papa Clem is he has shown he has a heart.