A Derby fave?

ShadowRoll · #1 05-05-2008, 03:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MISTERGEE

I am not sure if this is the time to pick for "value" in a 20 horse field, if you key off the winner at least you have a shot at an over 3k tri and 58k super, only 3 of those 20 cappers had a shot at that.

Value is always a consideration. What you seem to be saying is not that using BB was not a value play, but that using BB was still a value play in the exotics, even at 2-1.

Fair enough, if you believed he was a lock. If you thought he was vulnerable, then keying him just wasn't the smart thing to do. I'm not so sure that all those pro cappers refused to play him just because he was the favorite. Maybe they honestly thought BB was't as good as claimed.

On these big days, you can use the favorite and go wide underneath with the rightful belief that you can still make money. Or you can swing for the fences by leaving out the public's choice with the rightful belief that you can make an obscene amount of money. Most people's bankrolls are not big enough to do both.

It's easy, with 20-20 hindsight, to point out that the tri had a decent payout with the favorite on top. Unfortunately, bets have to be made before the race. Given the information we had about BB before the race, I still say it wasn't a bad move to bet against him.

Payson Dave · #2 05-05-2008, 03:12 PM

"For those that really liked him the tri was very hit-able"

ShadowRoll · #3 05-05-2008, 03:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Payson Dave

"For those that really liked him the tri was very hit-able"

"Fair enough, if you believed he was a lock."

Payson Dave · #4 05-05-2008, 03:23 PM

A one over six over six Tri-Box for a buck is $90....so you did not need to see him as a lock just as long as you did not toss him completely...

hi_im_god · #5 05-05-2008, 03:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Payson Dave

A one over six over six Tri-Box for a buck is $90....so you did not need to see him as a lock just as long as you did not toss him completely...

??

1 x 6 x 5 = $30

unless you meant a 6 horse box which is $120.

Payson Dave · #6 05-05-2008, 03:33 PM

1 over 6 over the same 6 is thirty possible combinations

Payson Dave · #7 05-05-2008, 03:38 PM

none of the six gets put in both the 2nd and 3rd spot in the individual combination

ShadowRoll · #8 05-05-2008, 03:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Payson Dave

A one over six over six Tri-Box for a buck is $90....so you did not need to see him as a lock just as long as you did not toss him completely...

Maybe we're talking different zip codes. I only bet $150 this Derby. Because I did not see him as a lock, I was not willing to bet 3/5 of my bankroll on BB. Instead, I though the race was pretty wide open, and there was no way I could cover the possibilities I favored while dedicating that much money to a horse I didn't like to win.

As I said before, it makes perfect sense if you liked the horse enough to key him. If you didn't like him that much, and thought 2 or 3 or 4 others could win, then investing in BB wasn't a viable option.