4/5 (SA): Santa Anita Derby (Gr. I) + 3 Gr. II Stakes

[Bobby Fischer]

The honest pace could hurt actually hurt El Gato Malo. Sometimes a horse with big distance limitations can get 9 furlongs with a slow pace, but when they have to cruise a little faster, they feel the distance. The public will tend to say that a pace would be to his advantage because of his running style. Small edge, and a dangerous one to back.

The Turf miler Yankee Bravo is kind of lukewarm here.

Polonious is interesting. He may have to rate just off the lead today. Seems to have a chance, and is the best of the pace.

Colonel John is the class here, but even he isn't untouchable. Still has to be the most likely winner. For the sake of the crop John needs to win with a strong effort. Polonious is a turf horse and El Gato shouldn't go more than 7furlongs on the dirt. John is the only thing still worth sending to the Derby.

Meetingwithdestiny could possibly plod into something minor.

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

Colonel John is the class here, but even he isn't untouchable. Still has to be the most likely winner. For the sake of the crop John needs to win with a strong effort. Polonious is a turf horse and El Gato shouldn't go more than 7furlongs on the dirt. John is the only thing still worth sending to the Derby.

I dont see how one can separate Col. John and El Gato right now, especially based on their last race. What indicates at this point that Col. John is superior to El Gato Malo?

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by pgardn

I dont see how one can separate Col. John and El Gato right now, especially based on their last race. What indicates at this point that Col. John is superior to El Gato Malo?

El Gato Malo has the lack of stamina in his pedigree, most importantly in his female family. The pace of the race and the synthetic surface were the only reasons that El Gato Malo was able to run a quality 9 furlongs in a competitive graded race.

My hunch is that the slow pace in the last race was relatively important. Maybe it wasn't. Maybe El Gato Malo can run in a faster paced 9 furlong synthetic race and not flatten out. It is a tough subjective call. I am not keying against him, only observing.

[AeWingnut]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

El Gato Malo has the lack of stamina in his pedigree, most importantly in his female family. The pace of the race and the synthetic surface were the only reasons that El Gato Malo was able to run a quality 9 furlongs in a competitive graded race.

My hunch is that the slow pace in the last race was relatively important. Maybe it wasn't. Maybe El Gato Malo can run in a faster paced 9 furlong synthetic race and not flatten out. It is a tough subjective call. I am not keying against him, only observing.

I agree his pedigree suggests (to you & me anyway) that the distance should be a problem.

Playing against El Gato Malo.

[Mike]

I'm also with Polonius, expecting him to be on the lead after the demise of Bob Black Jack, who seems to have proven class limitations. So much for the 10-1 odds, as several here are on him