No Wood for Circular Quay

[blackthroatedwind]

I think people are missing part of the equation. First, it makes obvious sense to run Any Given Saturday in the Wood as that is a likely spot for him to guarantee necessary Derby earnings, as there are basically only 1 1/2 other contenders in there, with NoBiz and maybe Summer Doldrums. As good as Any Given Saturday may be, and I think he's very good, the possibility of facing Great Hunter, Street Sense and Hard Spun in the Blue Grass is simply a mathematically more difficult spot for a horse who NEEDS earnings to guarantee a spot in the Derby. Thus, Pletcher has clearly made the right choice shipping to the Wood. The funny thing is someone bringing up questions about the surface. The Big A main track is considered by the horsemen to be one of the best in the land, and though obviously the track super in NY screwed it up some last meet, just as he seemed unable to stop the inner from being a gold rail for most of the past four months, but there are NO indications it is not in fine shape now. However, many trainers are leary of the Hawthorne surface, saying it can be hard on horses, so that is very likely why Todd chose Aqueduct over the Illinois Derby.

However, why then not run Circular Quay in next week's Blue Grass? He handled the poly OK in the Breeder's Futurity, and as he doesn't need earnings, so what if he doesn't win, as theoretically what he should need is a prep. Is there another Pletcher horse now going in that race that needs earnings? I find this hard to believe as the race is very strong and a mediocrity doesn't seem likely to now crack the top contenders ( especially if he worried Any Given Saturday might not ). So, why not just run Circular Quay there? It seems the perfect " prep ". That is why I am suspect of his condition.

On the " who the barn favors ". Well, they do love Scat Daddy. He is the barn darling. However, Todd Pletcher is extraordinarily bright and he knows clearly if all horses are sound Scat Daddy is at best his third likeliest Derby winner behind Any Given Saturday and Circular Quay. You all are free to have whatever opinions you like, but Scat Daddy is a distant third choice to those two if all are healthy....and someone as sharp as Todd Pletcher is acutely aware of this. I would also believe that while it's nice to have as many bullets as possible, Cowtown Cat is no bigger a Derby contender than Byk and me in a horse suit. He's so slow that he is much more reminiscent of the animal in the first part of his name than the latter.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I think people are missing part of the equation. First, it makes obvious sense to run Any Given Saturday in the Wood as that is a likely spot for him to guarantee necessary Derby earnings, as there are basically only 1 1/2 other contenders in there, with NoBiz and maybe Summer Doldrums. As good as Any Given Saturday may be, and I think he's very good, the possibility of facing Great Hunter, Street Sense and Hard Spun in the Blue Grass is simply a mathematically more difficult spot for a horse who NEEDS earnings to guarantee a spot in the Derby. Thus, Pletcher has clearly made the right choice shipping to the Wood. The funny thing is someone bringing up questions about the surface. The Big A main track is considered by the horsemen to be one of the best in the land, and though obviously the track super in NY screwed it up some last meet, just as he seemed unable to stop the inner from being a gold rail for most of the past four months, but there are NO indications it is not in fine shape now. However, many trainers are leary of the Hawthorne surface, saying it can be hard on horses, so that is very likely why Todd chose Aqueduct over the Illinois Derby.

However, why then not run Circular Quay in next week's Blue Grass? He handled the poly OK in the Breeder's Futurity, and as he doesn't need earnings, so what if he doesn't win, as theoretically what he should need is a prep. Is there another Pletcher horse now going in that race that needs earnings? I find this hard to believe as the race is very strong and a mediocrity doesn't seem likely to now crack the top contenders ( especially if he worried Any Given Saturday might not ). So, why not just run Circular Quay there? It seems the perfect " prep ". That is why I am suspect of his condition.

On the " who the barn favors ". Well, they do love Scat Daddy. He is the barn darling. However, Todd Pletcher is extraordinarily bright and he knows clearly if all horses are sound Scat Daddy is at best his third likeliest Derby winner behind Any Given Saturday and Circular Quay. You all are free to have whatever opinions you like, but Scat Daddy is a distant third choice to those two if all are healthy....and someone as sharp as Todd Pletcher is acutely aware of this. I would also believe that while it's nice to have as many bullets as possible, Cowtown Cat is no bigger a Derby contender than Byk and me in a horse suit. He's so slow that he is much more reminiscent of the animal in the first part of his name than the latter.

5 rattles.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

5 rattles.

I second that. Andy, you nailed it. Sending AGS to the Wood is the RIGHT move, from an earnings perspective as well as profile perspective... but why can't CQ at least run around the track in the Blue Grass if he's sound?!? Who cares if he finishes 3rd, 4th, 5th if it sets him up better for the big day (worked out just find for his charge last year)? Isn't that the point of a PREP?

For a guy as smart as Pletcher, he's making a really dumb move if CQ is sound enough to run this week or next and training him up to the Derby.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by philcski

I second that. Andy, you nailed it. Sending AGS to the Wood is the RIGHT move, from an earnings perspective as well as profile perspective... but why can't CQ at least run around the track in the Blue Grass if he's sound?!? Who cares if he finishes 3rd, 4th, 5th if it sets him up better for the big day (worked out just find for his charge last year)? Isn't that the point of a PREP?

For a guy as smart as Pletcher, he's making a really dumb move if CQ is sound enough to run this week or next and training him up to the Derby.

Todd Pletcher probably makes less " dumb moves " than any trainer I have ever seen...and that is while making many more starts than most. Thus, there has to be a missing part of this story.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Todd Pletcher probably makes less " dumb moves " than any trainer I have ever seen...and that is while making many more starts than most. Thus, there has to be a missing part of this story.

The guy manages his barn with incredible detail and rarely starts horses where they cannot win (the Dubai trip with Honey Ryder nonwithstanding.)
There HAS to be something missing.

[Grits]

Originally Posted by philcski

I second that. Andy, you nailed it. Sending AGS to the Wood is the RIGHT move, from an earnings perspective as well as profile perspective... but why can't CQ at least run around the track in the Blue Grass if he's sound?!? Who cares if he finishes 3rd, 4th, 5th if it sets him up better for the big day (worked out just find for his charge last year)? Isn't that the point of a PREP?

For a guy as smart as Pletcher, he's making a really dumb move if CQ is sound enough to run this week or next and training him up to the Derby.

I do not approach second guessing trainers decisions. I try, instead, to just deal with them, rather than contemplating and expounding on them.

In this particular instance though, it appears that Pletcher is quite concerned about Keeneland's poly surface. From the last paragraph in the article reported by DRF, he will be noting this weekend's races.

This was my first and only thought on the deal. The surface.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Grits

I do not approach second guessing trainers decisions. I try, instead, to just deal with them, rather than contemplating and expounding on them.

In this particular instance though, it appears that Pletcher is quite concerned about Keeneland's poly surface. From the last paragraph in the article reported by DRF, he will be noting this weekend's races.

This was my first and only thought on the deal. The surface.

Me neither, ESPECIALLY Pletcher, who has proven time and again he knows his stock to a T. A friend of mine owns a nice turf filly with him so I get a nice look at how he plots their courses through her (looks like the Beaugay next for the filly.)

I didn't see that article, I'll check it out. With the expected cold weather this week, that's an interesting thought as well with all the stuff that happened at TP.

[Grits]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

He was concerned with the surface in regards to another Derby contender of his Deadly Dealer. Dealer is very fast and in the fall the Keeneland poly played not too kind to speed. So Pletcher said he going to monitor it to see if it was stil playing that way. I didn't get that he was concerned about the surface in any way other than that.

Yes, you're right, he must be interested in the poly in regard to only this one runner, Deadly Dealer, in his barn.

My mistake--thinking he would be interested in any other of his horses going over the poly.

You're correct Dahoss.

[Grits]

Dahoss, I told you that you were correct, when I thought he had concern for CQ and possibly others in his barn...I went back and read the DRF article again, and saw the concern was for Deadly Dealer, so what are you telling me now? What did I miss?

[Grits]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I guess it appeared to me that you were being snide with what you were saying. My apologies if I was incorrect.

No, don't you think I've brought enough on myself in the last week?

Don't answer that, I'll hit you. . . (forgetting here that I'm talking to the dude who say's "its a message board, and I'll never meet you people, so I can kinda say, whatever.")

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by philcski

I second that. Andy, you nailed it. Sending AGS to the Wood is the RIGHT move, from an earnings perspective as well as profile perspective... but why can't CQ at least run around the track in the Blue Grass if he's sound?!? Who cares if he finishes 3rd, 4th, 5th if it sets him up better for the big day (worked out just find for his charge last year)? Isn't that the point of a PREP?

For a guy as smart as Pletcher, he's making a really dumb move if CQ is sound enough to run this week or next and training him up to the Derby.

I completely agree with you. If he's OK, you'd think TP would want to get some sort of prep in him. even if he just jogs around the track in a race like the blue grass. pulling CQ and sending AGS to the wood with the field the way it's shaping up makes perfect sense from a graded earnings perspective, but NOT placing CQ in another prep in favor of training up to the derby sends up a red flag to me.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Cowtown Cat is no bigger a Derby contender than Byk and me in a horse suit. He's so slow that he is much more reminiscent of the animal in the first part of his name than the latter.

As I have said before while others were making their predictions for who would win the Derby, I don't know who will win it, but I guarantee that Cowtown Cat will make the field and finish EXACTLY 16th.

[MisterB]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I guarantee that Cowtown Cat will make the field and finish EXACTLY 16th.

WOW

What a bet to take here

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by MisterB

WOW

What a bet to take here

I know! Have you ever seen such a sure thing?
In a somewhat related - and slightly more serious matter - I have no idea how good of a trainer Tim Ritchey is overall, because I don't follow his tracks carefully, but personally I loved what he did with Afleet Alex in '05.
Remember when he brought him back in that 6f Mountain Valley Stakes (or whatever it is called)? Ritchey said something to the effect of "well I was planning on giving him a strong 6f work so I figured hey, might as well put him in a race!" What a novel concept! Apparently he wasn't afraid that his horse would run too well (whatever the hell that means) and therefore compromise his chances for future success.
Then there was the business about all of Alex's long works that Ritchey said he used to build up the horse's stamina. It seemed to work out okay with his impressive victories in the Arkansas, Preakness, and Belmont. I don't know squat about training, but don't these two ideas (bringing your horse back in a sprint, and using long/slow works to build stamina) make more sense than only running your horses every two months with some 5f works in between starts?
Also do trainers ever really think...."Oh no my horse ran much better in that race than I wanted him to run." Somehow I doubt it.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I know! Have you ever seen such a sure thing?
In a related - and slightly more serious matter - I have no idea how good of a trainer Tim Ritchey is overall, because I don't follow his tracks carefully, but personally I loved what he did with Afleet Alex in '05.
Remember when he brought him back in that 6f Mountain Valley Stakes (or whatever it is called)? Ritchey said something to the effect of "well I was planning on giving him a strong 6f work so I figured hey, might as well put him in a race!" What a novel concept!
Then there was the business about all of Alex's long works that Ritchey said he used to build up the horse's stamina. It seemed to work out okay with his victories impressive victories in the Arkansas, Preakness, and Belmont. I don't know squat about training, but don't these two ideas (bringing your horse back in a sprint, and using long/slow works to build stamina) make more sense than only running your horses every two months with some 5f works in between starts?

It seemed to work well for about 100 years