Early HOY predictions

1st_Saturday_in_May · #1 06-26-2006, 12:19 PM

Flower Alley - scenario is simpe...dont lose Whitney, Woodward, JCGC (if he goes), BC Classic - win HOY

The rest have to hope that he loses

#2 06-26-2006, 12:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1st_Saturday_in_May

Flower Alley - scenario is simpe...dont lose Whitney, Woodward, BC Classic - win HOY

The rest have to hope that he loses

I think Rathor could beat him and am fairly certain Bernardini will be the horse to beat in the BC Classic.

#3 06-26-2006, 12:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1st_Saturday_in_May

Flower Alley - scenario is simpe...dont lose Whitney, Woodward, BC Classic - win HOY

The rest have to hope that he loses

Yep - I agree 100%

#4 06-26-2006, 12:53 PM

Bellamy Road or Lava Man.

miraja2 · #5 06-26-2006, 01:24 PM

So hard to tell right now.....but if I had to bet I'd go with Flower Alley. Too bad they don't do future wagers for HOY.
Barbaro? No way.

Gander · #6 06-26-2006, 01:47 PM

The ball is in Lava Man's court. If he wins 2-3 more races at the Grade 1 level this year and runs 1st or 2nd in the BC Classic he wins, unless Flower Alley wins the 3 grade 1's he is aiming towards- Whitney, Jockey Club and BC Classic. If Flower Alley is the horse to defeat Lava Man in the BC Classic and Lava Man runs 2nd, Lava Man still wins HOY.

I dont give any 3 year old any shot at HOY except for Showing Up. Not crazy about Bernardini winning anymore than 1 grade 1 and that wont be enough.

Now if Showing Up were to stay on grass and win 3 grade 1's including a BC race, he would be HOY.

#7 06-26-2006, 01:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gander

The ball is in Lava Man's court. If he wins 2-3 more races at the Grade 1 level this year and runs 1st or 2nd in the BC Classic he wins, unless Flower Alley wins the 3 grade 1's he is aiming towards- Whitney, Jockey Club and BC Classic. If Flower Alley is the horse to defeat Lava Man in the BC Classic and Lava Man runs 2nd, Lava Man still wins HOY.

I dont give any 3 year old any shot at HOY except for Showing Up. Not crazy about Bernardini winning anymore than 1 grade 1 and that wont be enough.

Now if Showing Up were to stay on grass and win 3 grade 1's including a BC race, he would be HOY.

Are you the guy on finalturn that thinks Showing Up is Secretariat? Showing Up isn't winning horse of the year no matter what. Turf Eclipse award is actually a real possibility after watching him saturday, maybe even 3yr old if he does what you said with all the grade 1's, but HOY is for dirt horses. I too like Lava Man but watch out for Bellamy Road.

Slewbopper · #8 06-27-2006, 07:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hoisttheflag

Are you the guy on finalturn that thinks Showing Up is Secretariat? Showing Up isn't winning horse of the year no matter what. Turf Eclipse award is actually a real possibility after watching him saturday, maybe even 3yr old if he does what you said with all the grade 1's, but HOY is for dirt horses. I too like Lava Man but watch out for Bellamy Road.

If the dirt horses take turns beating each other, then a turfer can get HOY. HOY was there for Slew O Gold in '84 but he lost in the BCC letting John Henry slip in. In '93 (?) had Bertrando not lost the BCC to Arcangues, he would have been HOY but Kotashan won it with his superior year on the turf.

#9 06-26-2006, 02:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gander

The ball is in Lava Man's court. If he wins 2-3 more races at the Grade 1 level this year and runs 1st or 2nd in the BC Classic he wins, unless Flower Alley wins the 3 grade 1's he is aiming towards- Whitney, Jockey Club and BC Classic. If Flower Alley is the horse to defeat Lava Man in the BC Classic and Lava Man runs 2nd, Lava Man still wins HOY.

I dont give any 3 year old any shot at HOY except for Showing Up. Not crazy about Bernardini winning anymore than 1 grade 1 and that wont be enough.

Now if Showing Up were to stay on grass and win 3 grade 1's including a BC race, he would be HOY.

Tim you are way off. IF Flower Alley wins the BCC he is HOY, makes no difference who runs 2nd. Lava Man is noones hero after beating the awful competition that he has so far except yours. I think you are way overboard on him.

#10 06-26-2006, 02:50 PM

I will throw one in there--Deep Impact. If this horse wins the Arc and maybe he comes to Louisville and wins the classic then I cannot see how you cant vote him as HOY. But like Oracle said--Flower Alley. It is his to loose.

Gander · #11 06-26-2006, 02:50 PM

Your right. He could probably not beat Gold and Roses and Network.

#12 06-26-2006, 01:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2

So hard to tell right now.....but if I had to bet I'd go with Flower Alley. Too bad they don't do future wagers for HOY.
Barbaro? No way.

You can bet futures on the BC Classic in vegas.

Gander · #13 06-26-2006, 02:16 PM

No I dont post on any other sight.

Bellamy Road, HOY? Hes got a lot of work to do to get that. I think hes a cut below the top horses.

#14 06-26-2006, 02:44 PM

Flower Alley

Rupert Pupkin · #15 06-26-2006, 09:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hoisttheflag

Bellamy Road or Lava Man.

I'm a big fan of Bellamy Road but I think there is only a 50/50 chance that he will ever make it back to the races. He did work 3 furlongs last week but a friend of mine who is familiar with the horse's ailments does not think that BM will ever make it back.

1st_Saturday_in_May · #16 06-26-2006, 09:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I'm a big fan of Bellamy Road but I think there is only a 50/50 chance that he will ever make it back to the races. He did work 3 furlongs last week but a friend of mine who is familiar with the horse's ailments does not think that BM will ever make it back.

I'd say 50/50 is an overstatement. With only 2 works the EARLIEST he could return is late July, with mid-August being more likely. No horse SHOULD win the HOY with only 3 races, so I would think he's got no shot...

Rupert Pupkin · #17 06-26-2006, 09:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1st_Saturday_in_May

I'd say 50/50 is an overstatement. With only 2 works the EARLIEST he could return is late July, with mid-August being more likely. No horse SHOULD win the HOY with only 3 races, so I would think he's got no shot...

My friend did not say that the chances are 50/50 of the horse running in the BC Classic. He said the chances are only 50/50 of the horse ever running again.

#18 06-26-2006, 09:56 PM

If Bellamy Road wins HOY, I will never watch racing again.

I seriously doubt he will even be a contender. Smart move having the FARM MANAGER train him. What are his *ailments* anyway?

As for Lava Man, I think he needs to win outside of California first.

#19 06-26-2006, 09:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I'm a big fan of Bellamy Road but I think there is only a 50/50 chance that he will ever make it back to the races. He did work 3 furlongs last week but a friend of mine who is familiar with the horse's ailments does not think that BM will ever make it back.

He will definitely 100% be back.

Rupert Pupkin · #20 06-26-2006, 10:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hoisttheflag

He will definitely 100% be back.

How do you know that? I know they are trying to bring him back and they will do whatever they can to bring him back, but that doesn't mean he will make it back. By the way, after he worked 3 furlongs in :40, he didn't work again until 19 days later. That's certainly not a good sign.
There is no horse that you can tell me will run again for a 100% fact. Horses are fragile. Even with a sound horses who has been running regularly, you don't know for a 100% fact that the horse will run again. Any horse can have a career ending injury at any time. There is never a 100% chance that any horse will run again, let alone a horse that is coming back from an injury.